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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 16:34
sell EURUSD short @1.27 300 pips
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 16:33
EUR/USD Stopped In Its Tracks Again
Looks like the BIS is still lurking on the offer in the 1.2745/50 area as the single currency quickly backed off from another run at that level. A few fresh tidbits are crossing the wires. Fitch says there is no ratings impact on French banks from their exposure to Greece (Thanks EU/IMF/ECB!)
Also. Senator Shelby, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee says that Bernanke told the committee that the European debt crisis would have had ramifications for US banks if it were not dealt with

Moodys: New Fiscal Framework Postitive For European Credit As A Whole
But it is negative for the strong credits in Europe, like Germany. Lowest common denominator? Sounds like it too me. Moodys also discovers what the we saw on Saturday. That this crisis response is an important step toward a common European treasury, like it or not. Liquidity concerns have been alleviated by the package, Moodys says
Stationdealer
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 16:07
I agree xaron and it will be happening soon you can only dump a certain amount of euro. Euro already gaining vs the Asiatic currencies. Where its been seen being bought rapidly during the morning session.
While im hedged euro so far iv'e been long gold and now going long on aussie and shorting swissie. and of gold decide to come down long copper. All in all there's more thoughtful trades and opportunity out there, also staying long with GBP till 15350.

@ month you naughty i choice to quote what i want to quote, mentioned what was worth while to mention. it was not to drive any assessment it was just some boring information that cud have been useful to someone. Thanks for the enlightenment .

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 15:34
@Stationdealer: You omitted to mention that that is a quote from Zerohedge :-)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-banks-now-feverishly-betting-against-euro-bailout-fails-gold-surges


Deja vu all over again.
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 15:30
I am long because those leveraged shorts will get squeezed out dramatically...
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 15:16
The simplest ideas do work well IF they are such simple that complicated thinking simpletons take the idea as too complex. I am still short EUR/USD.
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 15:09
Thought experiment: You are the head FX trader at French megabank Croc Monsieur & Cie. (HFT: CMC) For the past 5 years, your bonus has been getting paid primarily in company stock. In the last two weeks you have seen the stock of your firm plunge as the markets have finally realized that those idiots in the Fixed Income desk have loaded up to the gills with PIIGS debt which is now worth 60 cents on the dollar at best. And to top things off, the euro has plunged to multi year lows killing any chance of buying that New York Pied A Terre which seemed so cheap when the EURUSD was 1.50 a few months ago. So what do you do? Well, you short the living daylights out of the EUR, knowing full well that the EU, the IMF and the ECB will not let Europe crash. You sell, you sell on margin and then you sell some more, trying to get EURUSD all they way down to 1.20, to 1.10, even to parity if possible, to make it all that more believable that the end of Europe is coming. And, lo and behold, on May 9 your plan succeeds: Europe agrees to bail your bonus out, by flushing $1 trillion under the pretext the money will be used to stabilize the periphery and the euro. Immediately the stock of CMC, and thus the value of your accrued bonus (several million worth), surges by a record 20% in one day. So you think: "How can I get an even greater bonus appreciation? Why - I will short the euro again. At this point I know that between myself and the other FX desks at all the other French and German banks we can easily take the euro down to 1.20 if not much lower. After all we are only trading against the very central banks that are keeping us alive. And when that happens Europe will have to print another trillion, then ten trillion, then one hundred trillion, all the while the stock portion of my accrued bonus surges. Brilliant." Brilliant indeed

In other words, the very banks that Europe is bailing out are betting more and more aggressively with each passing day against Europe's own survival! Even George Soros has shed a tear of pride in how beautifully his initial plan to take on the BOE has mutated for the Bailout Generation.


catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 14:50
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Germany and France are among top- rated euro-area states that may compromise their AAA grades by standing behind the debts of weaker members with their 750 billion-euro ($955 billion) stabilization fund.

The package is making debt profiles deteriorate, potentially damaging the ratings of core sovereigns, said Stefan Kolek, a strategist at UniCredit SpA in Munich. Its a kind of Ponzi game at the highest level.

The unprecedented loan package was designed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to halt a sovereign- debt crisis that threatened to push Greece, Portugal and Spain into default and shatter confidence in the euro. As part of the support plan, Germanys Bundesbank, the Bank of France and the Bank of Italy started buying government bonds yesterday.


Stationdealer
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 14:15
ING you started to talk more and more like that guy Lucky
there are no hidden agenda's
we speculators all we do guess work, on what effect a policy will have,
what steps certain authorities should take, what's the macro ramifications,
how the market participant are eyeing certain instrument, and so on and so
and then we make decision based on these broad measures, being human sometimes
we don't even look at all those factor we can only rely on a couple based upon your short term or
long term speculation, but trust me if there is any foul play here its not for us to speculate on that cuz
we can not change that. And that my friend in that market play making substance is called PRESSURE or its a MONOPOLY.
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
May 11, 2010 13:17
@stationdealer..
he simly lied..
Their private game>>>tell them THIS and U (clients,"frineds") make exactly the CONTRARY..

GS always is like crazy...