JPY

PTAczek

You could be right - but so could I - it is a probabilities game. I am not sure where one can get definite data about a rally being speculator driven or big money manager driven ? It is only a guess unless we have a definite source or volume to confirm.
normally i don't bother with the why's of a price action - each expert can have a different reason - trying to figure it out in a short term trading (5 to 10 days max) plan is good to know but rarely actionable for me. Also, catching absolute tops and bottoms is a losing exercise for me at atleast - so start small - and see how the trade develops over the next day or two - add to it or get stopped out.
also looking at COT data - commercials who have been on the right side of the trade for the last year - are undecided - just a bit over a 1000 are short the yen. COT data overall is mixed with no clear bias at this stage and open interest is close to the mean of the last year - so no major increase in open interest signalling a large move is on the way - though all this could be lagging.

getting tempted to put in a small short on Cadjpy also.

@said: Thank you for the LIBOR reminder and the yield curve note.

@nzvik: I see. 3rd STD is far-away from a mean, no questions about it. But considering what Said wrote about the speculator-driven rally, I don't see USDJPY short as a safe bet right now. Maybe it's because Im looking for longer-term trades. Surely, USDJPY has some little downside probability, but given all the fundamental clues, I think there is a much bigger wave gaining strength.

Ptaczek,

purely technical. no great fundamental theories behind it. price got too close to the 3rd Standard deviation on the daily charts, previous resistance is around 93.75, RSI is at the highest level it has been in the last one year. I think the market likes the 90.5 zone - so hopefully will come done there.
enough reasons for me to risk a short - does not work all the time - but with leverage below 1:5 - i normally can widen stops if I think the trade needs more space to work or vice versa

PTA

yield curve in two and ten years is showing us that the market has still room to go up.
as ashraf showed us in its libor article yen till a point will be the carry trade currency. the crossing of yen libor bekow its usd counterpart is showing us that money is moving from jap gvt bond to us equities market. i am not that sure about that because we r still in a speculator rally and the big fund money manager for retail invesment hasnot come heavily in the game.
93.71 if broken clears the way to 100
but before by end week or next week can expect maybe 92.80

don't know ptaczek -but I am putting in a small short now on usdjpy at 93.6 - and another one at 94 - if it takes out 94.5 i will get out. if it works out targets are below 92 and hopefully 90.5.