GBP

well I see cable making an other move towards 14990 -15050, now all this depends on Asian session buying if it continues. Which will give excellent opportunity to a sell from highs towards 144. Over night i expect Aussie and Eur to give way lower but GBP stay above. Aussie will remain vulnerable through out the US- China confrontation over Yuan. And i see an excellent sell coming in there it sold perfectly from my earlier todays prediction to top out at 8660 and had a nice sell since then Australia meeting minutes out later tonight, I'm in NY today so i will be able to cover that is if my friends dont show up and pull me away.

Commodities are showing weakness again and we still keep selling Treasuries, Sold CAdJpy from 8955 today as I expect JPY to give away its to dollar gain thats dues days ahead, depending on the move it could be for a 2 to 4 days or 2 to 3 weeks, I expect EurCad to reach slightly above 127 maybe 12715. Cad gain and later oil weakness confirms cad will weaken in days ahead, possible in a very significant way.

Thats true Cat, I do find top side limited but i would prefer selling it around 137.65. I feel we might see a new level retracement for GBPJPY originally I had 139 as my estimate but now I feel it may slide. What will confirm me is to see another day of GBP strength. Only thing keeping Yen crosses alive right now is US-China heated debate. Only reason i can think of why US wants China to break the Peg is cause then china has the heavier hand in case they are planning to kill the dollar again.This would give unfair advantage to China.

Meanwhile Risk Trade Pauses At 200-Day Moving Average In S&P
The 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 comes in at 1108 and change today, a level that has capped rebounds twice in recent weeks. A break above that average will spur great risk appetite and should help lift EUR/USD through resistance in the 1.2300/05 area. 1105.65 is the intraday high in the S&P today. A close above could also mean an inverted H&S to form in days ahead.

EurCAD did as expected and I do expect it to hit our target of 127 soon and EurChf only 25 points away from my level predicted for 1.40

The upside could continue toward 1.50 what should be great sell opportunitie even if markets participant are starting to price rates hikes for the coming months... cable is actually on its mid resistance level (of its bearish channel) if it breaks, we could see a rally toward 1.50 which resistance level of its big bearish chanel from 1.6871... If this scenario occurs I shall sell to 1.50 with one stop loss at 1.5250 (Fib. 38 of this downtrend)...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/jun/14/politics-live-blog

"
Politics live blog - Monday 14 June

GDP predicted to grow at 2.6% but public debt falls 8bn on budget forecast and 23bn over five years"

China looks to plug its leaky Stats office

Last weeks economic data leaks annoyed the Chinese government enough for them to launch an investigation.



Inflation may force Bank to raise rateshttp://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7148991.ece

The Bank of England could be forced to abandon its highly expansionary monetary policy - and raise interest rates in the second half of the year, according to MPCs Andrew Sentance.



As if by magic, Sir Alan reveals the real deficithttp://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article7148955.ece

Tomorrow, at 10:00 am to be precise, something rather special will happen. David Smith in The Times. Allot of people will perceive this news as now what good is that now just another forecaster or how it can avoid any uncertainties British Economy will face. But I see this as a firm step towards long term stability. I can see this put to some good use, how ever the out-come of this experiment will play with in the market in my person view in a very long turn not at this moment. For now I take this as a positive.

Pricing UK Rate hikes this year?
Could be, as inflation stays stubbornly high, says MPCs Sentance.
That should give cable a turbo-charged bid in early trade.



Offers At 1.2150, Stops Above

Fairly heavy offers around 1.2150 Im told and more selling interest around 1.2170. reported some heavy stops above 1.2155 and Im hearing that there are some very heavy stops above 1.2190 and 1.2205. Ive not heard much on the downside yet but based on the hourly chart Id anticipate bids emerging at 1.2030/50. Remember weekly pivo is higher if it moves low in Asian session and pull's back in European session, above 1.2040 expect sharp up move as we collect some heavy stops and may give away by next prior to IFO's. Crosses will remain optimistic as ever during this week, un less we are led into some other stark news from the Euro-zone.

Now that EUR/USD has re-established itself above 1.20, market sentiment towards the single currency has improved significantly. I expect this to manifest itself in some significant moves higher in the EUR crosses. EUR/GBP rallied 100 pips from its Friday lows and whilst I still wouldnt discount another final push lower, a re-test of the .8400 breakdown level is looming as pivotal. On Friday we saw some new buyers apart from the SNB emerge in EUR/CHF and this will greatly increase the chances of a rally back towards the mid 1.40s. If the hedge funds start covering their shorts then there will be some sharp moves higher.



Naughty Boys Left Out Of GM IPO
The Journal reports that Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan will lead the eventual IPO of General Motors.
Uncle Sam owns 61% of GM. Since the SEC is on Goldmans tail, GMs board likely read the tealeaves and left Goldman out of the top-tierNo sense ticking off your largest shareholdehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509404575300430351563768.html?mod=WSJ_Deals_LeadStory



One More Reason Not To Trust Ratings Agencies: The FFF
Traders are not the only ones who are vulnerable to committing the dreaded fat-finger f*&ck-upApparently the worlds largest ratings agencies are as well..http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-withdraws-aaa-rating-german-bonds-blames-administrative-error-promptly-reinstates-rating



China Media Scorn U.S. Yuan Bill Baby Kissers
Oh dear.http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65B0J120100613