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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
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Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 2:35
Hi Ashraf, can I clarify on the effect on China RMB appreciation on Commodity and commodities currrencies.

Wells Fargo's Bennenbroek mentioned this appreciation would be bullish for commodities currencies.

Also, Westpac Analyst today on CBNC Asia mentioned that AUD and more importantly AUDJPY would benefit very strongly, and even expect 90/95 this year.

I remember you already said that China tightening means STRONGER JPY (&TWD, MYR).

I thought Stronger JPY would drag AUDJPY down. I thought yesterday's China speculation had driven AUDUSD and CADUSD DOWN including Oil. Is this a misdirection? Is this why Gold is stronger also?

I hope to get your advice.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 1:08
Guys,

Ashraf, being the humble that he is, didn't post this on all threads...so I'll volunteer.

And you guys thought Ashraf Laidi was good at inter-market analysis!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS9B3i3vaMY


Asad
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 14:50
@INGbalek: I'm trading on my own plus I'm managing someone's money (a Slovak guy coincidentally). No company yet, but it'll be necessary to start one eventually. And what about you? (write me at ptaczek@gmail.com if you like so we don't mix chatting with the topic of this thread).
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 14:10
@ptaczek:
neighbour..u trade on ur own or u r a company?
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 13:43
@montmorency: I meant 'has not a strong reaction'. It was around 50pips in first hour and around 70pips in first 3 hours. Since then it managed to gain another 40pips in slow round turnaround to end up at it's trendline broken on tuesday. I appologize for not being precise but Im a longer term trader with not so big interest in sub 100pips moves :)
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 13:09
@ptaczek: That's interesting (that AUD/USD did not react to the rate hike: I hadn't noticed as I don't follow this pair religiously). AUD/NZD certainly reacted.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 13:04
@Callum: audusd is in a nice uptrend channel since the early february and it breaked above it's slight downward trendline on Tuesday (a trendline over Nov 16 and Jan 14 tops). For me this is a no-trade at this moment. The tuesday's breakout isn't playing it's direction clearly yet. Also the AUD did not pop-up on latest RBA's hike. Employment in Australia is fine but employment in US is a wild-card right now. No-trade for me, until the direction is more clear.
taniral
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 33
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 12:28
Callum, look for a break of .9320 on AUDUSD for a long opportunity targeting .98 level. I see this potential on the weekly and daily charts.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Apr 7, 2010 22:36
its all about timing. was expecting 87 oil in jan-feb before falling but it stopped at 86.

Now expect more declines in OIL relative to Gold

Ashraf
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 7, 2010 21:20
I wanted to get group feedback on my naive view on AUD/USD for today/tomorrow.

We are so close to the upcoming Aust job data during the asian trading session, and would be key to see whether AUD/USD break above 93 handle, and ASX 200 above 5,000 psychological level. Perhaps simplistic, should the jobs data printed tomorrow comes extradinarily positive, it might just be enough to make it above 93. There are other attributes that might just grease the wheels, especially as we seen some recent breakdown of resistance / support levels despite stronger USD 1) Gold's breakout upwards today 2) Oil still pretty high 3) USDCAD near parity.

With the exception of last months Aust jobs data, AU jobs number has a good track record of extraordinarily better-than-expected-job-figures, so this shouldn't be a surprise. How much of this is priced-in??

Whether it holds above 93 for a day or more, I would love to get views from others on this forum.
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