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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8876
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
partisan
London, UK
Posts: 43
10 years ago
Mar 27, 2010 10:40
Ashraf

In your BNN interview yesterday you explained how the rising spread between US and German 10-year bond yields is what informed your great call since January on 1.32 EUR/USD. You said you anticipate continued USD strengthening, particularly against GBP and EUR, as discount and Fed rates rise between now and June.

You also pointed to rising bond yields recently - the US 30-year yield is nudging up towards 5% - and theres the Asia tightening. Apart from looming elections in the Autumn do you see all this as also being a factor in the significant falls in equity markets which you anticipate after the summer - presumably as key data disappoints and double-dip recession looms (and sovereign debt problems also mount)?

What would your thoughts be on such market falls being what induces the resurrection of very full QE liquidity, as many predict, leading to crises in bond markets as bond vigilantes demand higher rates? Would you then see the long predicted collapse in the USD occurring in a general currency crisis? Gold would presumably rise but how would commodities and oil be affected?

My interest in your overall longer term perspective and its reasoning is spurred by my having gone back through some of your older threads and seeing how remarkably prescient your more contentious forecasts have been, even if theyve taken a bit longer to be realised than some followers would wish! Congratulations on your latest.

I look forward to reading your book which Ive just bought. Many thanks.

John
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 20:29
@asad or forum...did any1 do any last minute trades..i went short on gold @1107.70...bumped s half my crude shorts..iam a lil worried about s&p..an golds strong finish but hopfully things work out on mon..gl all have a nice weekend
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 13:54
@gun..yup an i added to them early in the morning...but im thinkin i might dump all if we hit 79.50..i changed my exit to just under 79 but getting nervous with these crazy swings..might go back to 79.50...ashraf what do you think about crude i know u last mentioned 76.50?thanks an gl pl
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 13:45
@Chloe hope you kept those shorts in play...fri volatility is back...and CL is dropping nicely. If we take out 79 this sucker could really head lower
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 11:23
@asad..what do u make of things this morning ..to me its very confusing gold up..crude up..usd up..s&p up....somthing has to give..an nice job on exiting yesterday short i tried but am still waiting for the 80.20 or less to hit ..lol..ohh well i added more to my short position..i saw u mentioned golds rally near end of the day is that somthing to be concerned about or are we still set to treend lower? thanks an gl today
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 9:44
hi ashraf,i noticed that gold.oil.usdcad all up this morning..is the correlation still in place were we have all 3 rising only to have comod pull back while usd rallys or holds...thanks have a nice day
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 1:31
@ed..to be honest i see us going below 70 really fast..we hit below 70 in the middle of jan or feb an were still having big builds in the weekly inventory #..now summer is hitting the builds should be bigger an yes pl talk about the driving season ..only prob with that is no1 is traveling..hard to travel when ur broke an in debt..all we need are a couple catylyst to get the ball moving...gl all
ed
Canada
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 1:01
Hi all.

Now When you look at oil and slap in some line for support and resistance on a weekly basis, I see oil going down much more than 79-78 but rather 75-74.... before recovering back over 82....any thoughts..

thanks

ED
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Mar 26, 2010 0:28
@asad,im booking profits on my latest block..just waitin for it to go lower..@80.20 or less..i just sold my usdcad @1.0241..but im looking to get it back throughtout the night plus adding more oil shorts if possib...where the hell is pippedoff lately..hope to here from u soon..gl guys
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
10 years ago
Mar 25, 2010 21:30
Hi Ashraf, Do you still think Dow may test 11K given we saw volume pick up in the final hour to the downside and *almost* closing lower (ie, as it did w SPX)?

ASX 200 futures now back in -ve and wondering if you think Nikkei may head into -ve again?