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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
ASX 200 futures now back in -ve and wondering if you think Nikkei may head into -ve again?
Entry: 81.40, exit: 80.45
Asad
It's not criminal to take profits! In fact, it's healthy & gives one a sense of achievement. :p
Well, if I were you (& I'm planning on doing the same), I'd certainly cover my 82.25 short at 79.5 (hey, you've to fund your jamaica trip too). Then cover up your 81.82 short at 78.50 (if it gets there...which it should) and so on. 300 pips in this market is decent.
Having done this, I'd keep a decent position floating in the market (even risk it on the back of the profits made) in anticipation of a heavy fall.
I'll minimize my positions near close of play tomorrow - I think tomorrow they'll kill crude - as I don't really like carrying positions into the w/end (as oil is also a politically-sensitive commodity)...
Asad
Good, timely short we made this at 81.40. ;) Currently at 80.65...
Asad
Wow how timely was your article on bond spreads US vs German 10 year? My compliments and thanks.
The Nonprophet
* - Gold has seen the LEAST proportionate movement so far. Strongly banded b/w 1090 & 1092. One reason is the strength os the USD...the other is its internal weakness compared to other asset classes.
I've opened a new short at 81.40. Shit or bust now!
These are my observations.
- The rel'ship b/w equities & USD seem to have broken. Both are strengthening hand-in-hand instead of acting inversely. Perhaps a sign of things to come? But my understanding is that it is NOT USD's innate strength, rather the WEAKNESS of GBP, JPY & EUR that's making the USD strong.
- Oil, until now, was banded b/w 80.80 & 81.10. Currently trading a shade below 81.40. The fact that it hasn't moved as much as equities shows (definitely!) that it hold its inverse rel'ship w/ USD. Oil, in itself has no strength...and even a 100-point equity sell-off from here should take us below 80. You can say its going up just because everything else is!
- Gold has seen the proportionate movement so far. Strongly banded b/w 1190 & 1192. One reason is the strength os the USD...the other is its internal weakness compared to other asset classes.
- VIX. Well...what can we say about VIX. I learnt that the higher the VIX, the more the volatility & the lower the markets. You can throw that out of the window. VIX high, everything else high! Another sign of things to come.
Asad