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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Apr 18, 2012 19:04
Comments: 29
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

April Fears Ahead of Fed, Spain & China

Cyclical volatilities in April are backed by fears of a hawkish Fed dissent, resurging Spanish yields & further Chinese doubts
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 20:09
I think its better than the Tom Yeomans accustrength which is lower cost.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 18:31
well I could claim they have copied my idea.... only that the strength robot identifies all that per program . I need not do anything it took however some mental effort to prevent hft scalping that costs fees big fees.
But anyway the best trading software so far. Too bad they offer only 3 day trial.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 17:56
The 8 major currencies are charted in a line chart, three timeframes available.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 17:42
yes and its charting strengths rather than #'s table. Also they have their own substitute for the outdated DX basket weighting and proper range bars in their charting.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 16:55
TradingFx has a currency strength meter I have always wondered no broker offers such.
Good.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 12:59
yeah, u very specialist cat but most novice traders need to start at the beginning and then find their niche and their preferred timeframe.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 12:15
This depends on timeframe. Since I rely on automatic trading - robots- I have developed another method. This works with volatility and volatility of volatility, vvol. It can be shown that tarding pairs both of which have high vvol is more or less a lottery game in a timeframe of several days. But pairing low vvols generates low but continuous returns.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 12:05
And Saka, if you need some very compact charting software tailored for forex pair trading I would direct you to look at TradingFX.com. I have several charting software packages but this one is the best for forex pairs that I know of. No good for bonds, stocks, commodities.
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 11:50
Saka, Ashraf puts a lot of emphasis upon learning all about tech analysis, this is very important in addition to understanding the bond/yields/CDS correlations. Correlatons have been particularly scewed during the european financial crisis so understanding all the nuances in times of great stress is not at all easy. Even if and when the european crisis abates we can look forward to bond crises looming for Japan and the USA and UK. You need to combine technicals with the shorter term fundamentals. And then you need to allow for the markets often being irrational in misunderstanding news announcements, the real implications thereof. Charts reflect all of this in your rear view mirror so chart analysis is the starting point for managing your positions.

"Identifying when consolidations have ended"

I would point you to study Market Profile (auction market theory). This will show you how markets, all markets, behave. Consolidation is a period in which traders agree value. Agreeing value leads to dissagreement and vertical development. Vertical development leads to consolidation again (new value area) MP will provide you with the trading parameters on any timeframe you select.

Attempting to predict price action without the technical tools to manage your trading is a very dangerous game. No trader can fully digest all the news quickly or accurately enough to interpret the correct bias for trading. The news flow is totally dynamic and often misleading.
Saka
China
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Apr 20, 2012 10:13
BTW, I want to ask Ashraf a question

How do you confirm a consolidation is over? We know that the major currenies, especially the EU is consolidated into a narrow band. Just as what you have shown us, you have a BEARISH bias of EU, but how could a trader identify this is a real breakout if the anticipation occurs? When EU cracks 1.2950 level? Do you have another assistant way to confirm it?

I just thought EU would have formed the sHs pattern in 16th April, and I aslo used the soaring yeild of Spain as a confirm, but it failed, and a famous column author wrote an aritilce in Marketwatch that day. I definitely believe there would be a big trend after a long consolidation, but still need some other ways to filtrate the false breakout ones.Thanks.
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