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Currency Wars & ECB's Shrinking Balance Sheet
Are the euro's gains just starting as the ECB balance sheet shrinks further from LTRO repayment?
at the end...fundamentas prevail?
in the long run, we're all dead
A
says ole Buffett and some others who are successfull for more than 20 years. Consequence: short term trades follow strength meter ( scalp trades ) look ahead ( days )follow credit market
long term : don't care don't trade or flip a coin ( yields exactly same hit rate as chart astrology)
But what's more important is your tactics. We can't control market but can make plans for each scenario :-)
When fundamental factor conflicts with technique, I ususally choose to trust the latter one, because I believe market has absorbed the news already.
Definitely I am lucky, aussie has cracked 1.37 level. But I more like EUR/AUD's chart, from weekly chart, it breaks out neck line of sHs pattern and its weekly MACD has crossed from 0 level from April 09. Chart shows that the bullish trend has come back of this pair. I anticipate it will go to 1.38 level.
From long time view. I have a foreboding just like what Andy Xie has written in marketwatch that the big bullish trend of Greenback is going to come back soon. I think that would mean the end of bullish trend of commodity currencies.
Sincerely
I thought you were Premium client. If you were, youd be able to know my thoughts.
Here is the comment part WITHOUT the trades:
The stabilization of the past 4 days stems not only from improved sentiment in global risk appetite but increasing expectations that the RBA interest rates have bottomed at 3.0% well into Q1. We do not expect the RBA to continue resorting to the same technique of slashing rates in order to target currency. Noting that AUDUSD is lower than where it stood at the December 5 rate cut, the RBA is likely to confirm market consensus of a hold in rates. Expecting a knee jerk jump higher between the 100 & 55 DMAs (1.0415-1.0470s). Longer-term picture (in late Q1), we are setting up for the possibility of a breakout above 1.0570s.On a nearer horizon, we’re sticking with cautious bullishness, targeting 1.0470-80, backed by the 200-DMA of 1.0310.
Ashraf
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/6272362013/latest-eur-spike-flow-vs-stock-analysis/?cid=0000215115
Asshraf
But the information given was misleading. Soon I discovered the ECB site is the official site of the England and Wales Cricket board (ECB). So the how to remains in mystery.
Especially mysterious is the simple fact that the assets DECREASED (!) after the hum payback while the deposit facility INCREASED (!). Thus...was there any payback at all?