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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 15, 2016 16:29
Comments: 5
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Weakness Trumps Fear: What Matters

 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 months ago
Jan 29, 2016 0:46
Genesis,

As far academic books:
"Animal Spirits" by Shiller.
"Depression Economics" by krugman.
“The Only Game In Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse” by El Erian


nextSignals,

Not sure how long the safehaven to USD will last if a new crisis prompts the Fed into easing. Remember: unlike in 2007-08 when the tightening was led by the Europeans and EMs, the Fed at the time was in neutral mode. Today it's the opposite: Fed is in tightening move (if you can call it that) & rest is in easing.

Ashraf


nextSignals
United States
Posts: 0
1 year ago
Jan 17, 2016 16:28
Ashraf, great points. The rapid deterioration in the world economy you describe poses a serious challenge to portfolio managers. In the US, there is ongoing deflation, a growth slowdown in manufacturing, and corporate profit recession. A rebound in equities is dubious and the risk of another downward move is substantial.

Until ongoing worries about the Yuan subside, macro data improves, and credit spreads narrow, I would imagine that asset allocation models should favor cash, fixed income, and currencies.

In addition to short-term trading of FX spot and crosses, how would you feel about allocating capital to the USD and Yen via the ETFs UUP and FXY?
Genesis
Jamaica, United States
Posts: 0
1 year ago
Jan 15, 2016 17:55
What other books would you you recommend to read to gain more knowledge after your book? Academic books?