Archived IMT (2008.10.17)

US housing starts fell 6.3% to 817K, the lowest in over 17 years (not 45 yrs as mentioned earlier), while permits for future construction collapsed 8.3% to a 26-year low of 786K. The rebound in USDJPY from last weeks 99.26 low dissipated at 101.81, in line with the latest note alerting the intermediate top to emerge at 102 as seen in the chart below. Considering the deepening erosion in the real economy echoing across the different sectors, traders are to remain reluctant in picking up in risk appetite past the 103 level, which presents the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 106.11 high to the 97.84 low. A break below 100.50 is to make way for 100.10 and 99.60.