Archived IMT (2010.01.07)

CHARTING NONFARM PAYROLLS. http://chart.ly/d4f86c US Dec nonfarm payrolls are now expected unchanged following a net decline of 11K. Note that payrolls have now stood above their 3-month moving average for 4 straight months, indicating the a longer strong of improvements than in the more mess pace of improvement in the 2002-3 recovery, which was a double dip recession in the aftermath of Sep 11. As for the unemployment rate of 10%, it is now at the same level of its 3-month MA for the 1st time since July 2009 (when the unemp rate last fell and USD rose on the report). Expect USD to regain ground as long as payroll losses are less than 70K and the unemp rate is does not push above 11%.