Archived IMT (2010.03.12)

ANOTHER WAY OF illustrating euro's inability to close the week above the important channel top of $1.38 is to show the USD index daily chart http://chart.ly/y4dxkq and the similarity of the current consolidation with that of mid-Dec to mid Jan. USDX hovers around 79.80, well above the 79.20 support, Why would equities continue to rally ahead of an FOMC decision that is widely anticipated to upgrade its hawkishness (via upgrading its economic outlook and more dissent with the law rates extended period mantra? Keep an eye on the latest S&P500-VIX Ratio, which remains below 65, hence, maintaining the case for downward outlook (bearish for stocks). PBOC did not raise this week but could well do so next week as inflation remains excessively high relative to lending deposit interest rates.