Archived IMT (2010.03.12)

Stronger than expected US Feb retail sales would normally have been negative for the US dollar via the channel of rising equities but a more-forward looking view argues for a USD-supportive stance as it maintains growing hawkishness from the Fed. Todays stronger than exp figures will not only maintain Kansas Feds Hoenig to dissent against the FOMC mantra of exceptionally low federal funds rate for an extended period, but will trigger further upgrade in the FOMC economic outlook, which will be negative for Fed funds futures. EURUSD fails to break the $1.3810-20 resistance that is required to eliminate the euro's downward channel.