Archived IMT (2010.04.09)

CAD CHARTS: Considering our NEGATIVE STANCE ON OIL oil and latest price action in CAD, these charts http://chart.ly/rb56fy suggest signs of a temporary CAD stabilization vs. GBP and USD. Weekly oscillators in GBPCAD are converging with the weekly price action, especially as such combination has proven bullish in prior occasions. GBP element of GBPCAD stabilization may emerge from the cacophony of election polls favouring the Tories. Any rebound from the current 1.5455, is seen limited at 1.6350s. USDCAD parity corresponds with the 76% retracement of the rally from the 40-year low of Nov 2007 to the Mar 2009 high. Todays jobs report helped USDCAD mark a floor at parity, but more is required in the way of Canada FX rhetoric and oil pullback (already struggling to regain $86) for the pair to regain 1.0130. A rebound in USDCAD faces preliminary resistance at 1.0380-00, but only a severe event risk on global risk appetite would lift USDCAD above 1.05.