Intraday Market Thoughts

European PMIs Seen Adding to Growth Concerns

by Kyle Morrison
Sep 22, 2011 6:29

This morning's European PMIs are expected to show further slowdown amid growth concerns, New Zealand GDP disappoints, Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, Swiss ZEW survey expected to show further weakness, Hang Seng hits 2-year low, US weekly jobless claims expected to fall back. Post-FOMC Premium Intermarket Insights hit more targets throughout Asia.

In the wake of all the concerns about the European banking system, concerns about new austerity programs for Greece, Italian bank downgrades and rising bond yields, we return to the small matter of economic data in Europe, and the release of flash PMI data for September with French, German and Euro zone services and manufacturing PMI data due.

With respect to manufacturing PMI, both France and Europe PMI both contracted in August, and they are both expected to contract further in September with French PMI expected to worsen from 49.1 to 48.6, and European PMI expected to worsen from 49 to 48.6.

It is the German data that will be of the most interest given that in August it did show expansion of 50.9, and it is expected to drop to 50.2, just about remaining in expansionary territory.

Any drop below 50 will increase fears, which are already elevated, that Europes largest economy is starting to misfire.

September services PMI data for all three are also expected to slip back, but they are all expected to remain in expansionary territory.

In New Zealand growth for the last quarter came in at 0.1% below expectations of 0.5%, and reducing any concerns that the RBNZ would be minded to raise rates in the near future, while last nights measures by the Fed are likely to continue to see the kiwi come under pressure with key support on the 200 day MA at 0.7975.

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In China manufacturing continues to show weakness with HSBC manufacturing PMI decreasing from last months 49.9 to come in at 49.4, falling to a two month low indicating a continuing slowdown in the wider economy.

The recent concerns about the rise in the Swiss franc and the implementation of the currency peg has been reinforced in recent days by the marked deterioration in Swiss economic data. Todays ZEW economic expectations is expected to show the impact the recent rise of the Swiss franc has had on economic expectations in Switzerland with hopes that it doesnt worsen from last months plunge to -71.4.

In the wake of operation twist yesterday US weekly jobless claims are expected to continue to highlight the continued problems with unemployment in the US.

 
 

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