Intraday Market Thoughts

Focus On Slovakian EFSF Vote, FOMC Minutes (Tom not Today)

by Patrik Urban
Oct 11, 2011 12:26

Market consolidates ahead of crucial EFSF vote; UK data mixed. Focus turns to Canadian housing starts, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index/ The FOMC minutes from last month's Operation Twist decision. are due Wednesday (NOT Today). Tuesday's Premium Intermarket Insights are due at the US opening bell.

Risk assets are consolidating large moves experienced yesterday and trade near session lows. J.C. Trichet's testimony before the EU Parliament's Economic Committee dented market sentiment slightly but at the same time did not reveal any surprises. President Trichet said that the crisis has reached a systemic dimension with stress being evident in larger EU countries and that the risk of contagion is rapidly rising.

UK data from earlier today was mixed. Manufacturing Production fell -0.3% in August after -0.2% in July while Industrial production rose 0.2% from previous -0.4%. GBPUSD pulled back to 1.56 support and currently trades around 1.5650

A major risk event will be Slovakian vote to approve EFSF changes. The SAS party in the four party coalition government has reiterated that it will vote against the proposition. Slovakian PM Iveta Radicova said earlier that she would ask the opposition party to support the notion which is likely to cause problems within her government and maybe even its collapse. The political situation is already tense as the EFSF vote is now linked to a government confidence vote. Changes to the EFSF must be ratified by all members and the other 17 Eurozone countries have already ratified the agreement.The parliament will meet at 7 am ET and voting will follow thereafter.

The New York session will bring Canadian Housing Starts at 8:15 am ET that are seen only marginally changed in September at 187K from 185K in August.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index is due at 10:00 am ET and is expected to increase slightly in October to 43.2 from 39.9.

At 2:00 pm ET traders focus will turn to FOMC minutes from the Fed's 9/20 meeting that ended with the announcement of Operation Twist. The record of the discussions will be interesting as it could provide clues about the possibility of further easing.


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