Greek Referendum Date set as Markets await ECB

Greece referendum set for 4th December, ECB may cut rates today, UK Services PMI eyed next, China services PMI disappoints, US weekly jobless due later. 13 New trades from the Premium Intermarket Insights were added 5 hours ago including EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, US Crude oil, ES, DJ.

December 4 is the date set for the Greek referendum, though the phrasing of the question remain unclear. There was no debate about the decision by the IMF and EU to withhold the next aid tranche for Greece until after the vote. In a slight change of tone and emphasis, however both Merkel and Sarkozy said it was up to Greece to abide by the rules of the Eurozone or leave it.

After yesterdays manufacturing PMIs from Italy, France, Germany and the Eurozone showed that the European economy was flat lining, and even contracting sharply, expectations have been rising for an imminent rate cut from the ECB. At the beginning of the week this may have seemed unlikely but given this weeks volatility there is a small chance that we could see a 0.25% cut today. IF we dont get one we could see Mario Draghi face some tough questioning at his first rate meeting as President of the governing council, given that Trichet indicated last month that growth risks were to the downside.

Today's release of October UK services PMI should put the final piece of the PMI puzzle in place after this weeks rather mixed construction and manufacturing data. Contributing as it does to over 60% of the UK economy todays figure could well increase fears about the strength or otherwise of the UK economy, with expectations of a reading of 52, down from Septembers 52.9. A figure below expectations will add to recessionary fears we can expect to hear a chorus of I told you so from the Bank of England.

Last nights Chinese non-manufacturing PMI data for October slipped back from Septembers 59.3, coming in at 57.7. The data also showed that price pressures were starting to moderate on the back of uncertainty from Europe and the US.

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Australian retail sales data for September slipped from Augusts 0.6% rise, increasing by a mere 0.4%, and reinforcing this weeks decision to reduce rates by 0.25%, as consumers reined back on spending.

In the wake of last nights FOMC meeting todays weekly jobless claims arent likely to add too much to the debate about unemployment. Tomorrows non farm payrolls will do that after the Fed raised its unemployment rate forecasts last night and downgraded its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012.