Intraday Market Thoughts

Euro Firms on Monti-Papademos Bounce

by Kyle Morrison
Nov 11, 2011 11:53

Euro political uncertainty as highly respected EU Commissioner Mario Monti is expected to replace Italian PM Berlusconi and former ECB member Lucas Papademos is set to be sworn in as Greek PM today. US consumer confidence due next. All of Thursday's Premium trades remain in progress.

But the so-called Monti-Papademos bounce faces more questions such as whether austerity conditions will be agreed upon before the EUR 8 bln tranche is deployed in Greece and the 2011 budget to be passed.

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Meanwhile, traders chatter suggest the ECB may have bought as nearly EUR 3.5 bln in Italy, Spain &Portugal bonds yesterday, in addition to another EUR 5bln earlier in the week.

Both S&P and Moody's told MNI they have no further comment on France debt rating following yesterdays news that S&P subscribers received a message saying that the Bank Industry Country Risk Assessments (BICRA) of France was downgraded to "NA". S&P then issued a statement and said the message was automatically sent to some subscribers of the S&P's Global Credit Portal by error and is "investigating the cause of the error". Despite these denials, trades continue to expect a French rating review is on its way. Moody's has already warned it may change its stable review and Aaa on France.

Japanese Fin Min Azumi said FX intervention to stem yen strength was always in the nations interest but has been unable to forge common interest with G7 nations to attain coordinated yen selling.

Earlier today, UK Oct input PPI -0.8% m/m from +1.8% m/m, while Oct output was unchanged after +0.3%

US Data Ahead: At 14:55GMT, Nov Consumer Sentiment Univ of Michigan expected 62.0. At 18:15 GMT, day 2 of ECB/Fed symposium in Chicago. Federal Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks 18:15 GMT, followed by ECB board member Orphanides at 22:15GMT

 
 

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