Intraday Market Thoughts

EUR at 2 Yr Lows, Weekly Techs & Premium Insights

by Adam Button
Jul 9, 2012 0:10

Another subpar US jobs report stifled risk appetite dropping the euro to the lowest levels in two years. The yen was the best performer on Friday and last week while the euro lagged in both categories. We take a look at the weekly forex technicals and details on Friday's Premium Insights, 8 new trades & charts on EURUSD & EURJPY.

The US added 80K jobs, short of the 90K economist consensus, and significantly below what markets were anticipating after Thursdays upbeat ADP numbers. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.2%.

The report inches the Fed another step closer to launching QE3 but its almost certainly not weak enough to spark action at the Aug. 1 meeting. Markets sense US growth at 2% or lower without the chance of government or central bank stimulus. That is a scary proposition and risk assets predictably sold off with the S&P 500 down 0.9% to 1355 and oil down nearly $3 to $84.45.

The main loser was the euro, which fell to fresh long-term lows against USD, GBP, AUD and others. The failure of EU Summit measures to improve optimism for more than a week paints a damning picture for Europe.

Commodity currencies fell nearly as hard as the euro, as AUD, CAD and NZD all hit one-week lows. Even a better-than-expected Canadian jobs report did little to step the disappointment from its southern neighbour.

Weekly Charts

EUR/USD touched a two-year low but closed marginally above the June 1 low of 1.2088, pointing to the possibility of a small bounce, perhaps to 1.24, before the next leg down to 1.20.

GBP/USD bearish engulfing candle on the cable chart points to more potential downside but the mid-June low of 1.5454 may act as a buffer before a retest of 1.53.

USD/JPY small weekly gain and is trapped between the 55-week and 100-week moving averages at 80.45 and 78.70, respectively. No sign of a breakout yet.

AUD/USD many bearish developments this week with the pair failing at the 200-day moving average and 55-week moving average. The 100dma also crossed below the 200dma. The weekly candles stick is also a spinning top or gravestone doji.

USD/CAD potential bullish hammer reversal on the weekly chart. Also had the 55dma cross above the 200dma this week.

LATEST PREMIUM INSIGHTS from Friday include 2 new trades on EURUSD, 2 new trades on EURJPY, 2 new trades on AUDUSD, 1 new on GBPUSD, 1 new on gold and 1 existing on USDJPY and USDCAD. Direct access to those trades and latest charts is found here: Non Subscribers can join here:



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