Intraday Market Thoughts

UK services PMI declines; ISM Non-manufacturing Next

by Patrik Urban
Oct 3, 2012 12:57

UK services PMI weaker; European PMI revisions mixed; Eurozone retail sales rose. Market turns to ADP and ISM non manufacturing. Latest Premium Insights include special technical charts for silver weeklies. See more below.

The greenback continued to gain throughout the Asian session. At the beginning of London trading it gave up its gains and EURUSD pushed from 1.2877 to 1.2936. As NY open approaches, USD is bid again and the common currency fell back to 1.2910.

UK services PMI were below expectations as the index declined in September to 52.2 from August's 53.7. Employment declined for the first time in ten months, operating expenses rose but new business increased at a solid pace. However, it could still be due to the Olympics. GBPUSD fell to 1.6083 and now trades around 1.6115.

European final revisions of services PMI for September were mixed. Some were revised higher, some lower but all of them are now below the 50 level indicating that the service sectors are contracting. Two noteworthy figures are Germany's revision from 50.6 to 49.7 and Spanish services PMI that dropped even below the worst estimates to 40.2 from previous 44.0. Eurozone retail sales rose 0.1% in August m/m and on annual basis improved to -1.3% from previous -1.4%.

The NY session begins a bit earlier today at 8:15 am ET with September ADP report that is expected to decline to 140K from previous 201K. Trying to estimate the NFP based on the ADP result has proven to be a frustrating proposition over the past few months so we will see on Friday whether there is a better correlation this month. ISM non manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is seen marginally lower in September at 53.2 from previous 53.7.

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