Intraday Market Thoughts

BOE Unchanged; Onto Final ECB Conference

by Patrik Urban
Dec 6, 2012 12:20

Solid AUD labor market data; no change from BOE; German factory order soar; Swiss deflation intensifies. Market awaits ECB decision and press conference and Canadian PMI. Yen crosses from latest premium Insights remain in progress and so are both EURUSD trades. Aussie is 3 pips away from finally hitting that final 1.05 target.

AUDUSD pushed higher during Asia on solid labor market data. The employment rose 13.9K in November from previous 10.2K and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 5.2% from 5.4%. AUDUSD trades right below 1.05.

The BOE kept the bank rate steady at 0.5% and kept he asset purchase facility unchanged at GBP 375 bln as anticipated. Earlier data showed that the trade deficit widened in October to GBP 9.5 bln from previous 8.4 bln. Nevertheless, GBPUSD is trading higher around 1.6115.

EURUSD did not benefit from German factory orders that rose sharply in October 3.9% from previous upward revised -2.4% and the pair continues to trade around 1.3080. Eurozone Q3 GDP was unrevised at -0.1% q/q and -0.6% y/y.

In other news, Swiss deflation intensified as CPI declined 0.4% in November from previous -0.2% y/y while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.0%. Greek banks' officials are meeting today to approve bond buy back participation

At 7:45 am ET the ECB will announce its rate decision. It is widely expected that the minimum bid rate will remain at 0.75% and that there will be no new easing measures announced during the press conference that follows.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with the ECB press conference and jobless claims that are seen lower at 378K from previous 393K. Canadian Ivey PMI is due at 10:00 am and it is expected marginally stronger at 58.8 from previous 58.3.

Still awaiting the 1.05 target on AUDUSD from 2 weeks ago. Other calls on EURUSD (2), GBPUSD (2), EURJPY (2), CADJPY (1), EURGBP (2), Gold (2), Silver (2), US Crude CL_F (2). DIRECT ACCESS here Non subscribers can click here:


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