Archived IMT (2009.03.06)

The 8.1% unemployment rate (highest in 25 yrs) and 651K in net job losses (highest since 1949) underlines the escalation in US but does not yet imply a peak in the US dollar, partly because of the onset of further easing (quantitative and policy) in the G10, and the prospects for further banking losses in Eurozone and UK. My expectations for Anticipation of prolonged gains in US treasury yields (due to supply not growth) is likely to further support the US dollar, but not at the expense of gold. EURUSD to accumulate temp gains at $1.28 figure, but renewed selling towards $1.25 and $1.23 is expected. Similarly, GBPUSD increasingly capped at $1.44 before recalling $1.40 and $1.37.