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FX market is predictably slow; Spanish 10 year yield rising. US labor market data is next. Thursday's Premium Intermarket Insights include EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold, silver and oil as well as key notes on EURUSD’s weekly ranges in the last major losses.

Currencies have been trading within a narrow range as most markets are closed today in observance of Good Friday throughout Asia and Europe. Such conditions are likely to continue until the NY session begins.

Skepticism about Eurozone's outlook resurfaced this week and was fueled further by a weak Spanish bond auction on Wednesday. Spanish 10 year yield continues to rise again and reached levels last seen at the beginning of January. On the positive note, according to MNI calculations, Spain has already reached 46.8% of its 2012 funding needs.

Traders are awaiting the release of March labor data at 8:30 am ET. Non

farm payrolls are expected to print 207K, slightly lower compared to February's 227K. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 8.3% and average hourly earnings are anticipated higher at 0.2% from previous 0.1%.

Wednesday's ADP report showed a decline compared to the previous month but still showed a solid 209K result. Furthermore, February's result was revised higher from 216K to 230K. The four week jobless claims average has been declining and the employment sub index of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing both improved. It therefore seems that a significantly disappointing NFP is unlikely. NFP result in line with or better than the expectations should underpin the buck as the bar for new QE would be raised even higher.

Illiquid markets could see a burst of volatility on the release but are likely to quickly calm down ahead of Easter Monday.

Thursday’s Premium Insights illustrate the glaring differences in EURUSD between Mar 13-14 Post FOMC reaction and this week’s POST FOMC minutes. Also charts on USD Index. EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and US crude oil are also added. Access to today's Insights: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=624 Nonsubscribers pls click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/

In Yesterday's Premium piece we compared two market reactions to two similar events; the March 13 FOMC statement, whose slightly upbeat assessment & inflation recognition lifted USD at expense of equities & metals for only 24 hrs; and; yesterdays minutes release to the same Mar 13 meeting. But unlike in the March 13-14 reaction, EURUSD is now extending its losses; breaking below the January support line. There is another glaring difference underway to the Mar 13-14 dynamics. Find out in todays Premium Insights the trading implications, as well as charts on USD Index. EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and US crude oil are also added. Access to today's Insights: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=624 Nonsubscribers pls click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/

Ashraf's video take for Reuters Insider on EURUSD and previewing the likely impact from Fridays US jobs report [ VIEW HERE ] http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uid428&cid=649536&shareToken=Mzo0YTJhMzk0Yi1iYzA4LTRjNmUtYjlhMC1hMzMzYTM4NzNmNWU%3D ARABIC SPEAKERS can view Ashrafs 15-mins interview for CNBCs Alhaseela [ VIEW HERE ] http://youtu.be/7QM13iLZAdc 15-year high unemployment in the Eurozone as a result of deepening austerity measures. Part of the unemployment problem is due to structural unemployment stemming from inefficient social security services discouraging employment. These issues were already a problem prior to the 2007-8 crises. Ashraf also touches upon the potential of escalating social malaise spilling onto deteriorating racial tensions, especially if government shift further to the right as might be in the case of France.

Swiss CPI and SNB reserves rose; EURCHF 1.20 floor hit; UK manufacturing production fell; German industrial production declined; BOE rates unchanged. Jobless claims, Canadian labor market data and Ivey PMI is next. For the latest on Wednesdays Premium trades, see below.

The buck trades stronger across the board except JPY. European equities are losing about 1% and the relative strength winner is JPY followed by USD.

Swiss CPI rose in March 0.6% from previous 0.3% m/m but the annual result pushed further into the deflation territory at -1.0% from -0.9% and the foreign currency reserves rose in March to CHF 237.5 bln from upward revised CHF 227.2 bln. Despite the increase, the reserves have been relatively stable since the beginning of the year. EURCHF barely moved on the release but fell later amid widespread Euro bashing below the 1.20 floor to 1.1990 which is a 7 months low. Official interest pushed the rate back above 1.20 just a few seconds later but numerous structured products and SL orders were triggered. The SNB spokesman reiterated that the policy has not changed and the rate below 1.20 will not be accepted.

UK manufacturing production came in well below expectations as it fell 1% in February after January's lower revised -0.3% m/m (-1.4% from -0.1% y/y). This is the largest monthly decline since April 2011 and sharpest annual fall since 12/2009. A considerable increase in electricity, gas and oil sent industrial production higher by 0.4% from -0.6% m/m (-2.3% from -4% y/y).

German Industrial production dropped 1.3% in February from previous +1.6% but steady and positive companies' sentiment suggest that output could improve. Unusually cold temperatures are blamed for the fall.

BOE left its main interest rate at 0.5% and did not increase the asset purchase facility that currently stands at GBP 325 bln.

The US data is limited today to jobless claims that are due at 8:30 am ET and are seen marginally lower at 355K from previous 359K.

Canadian reports include labor market data at 8:30 and Ivey PMI at 10:00 am. The number of employed people is expected to rise in March to 11.3K from previous -2.8K but the unemployment rate is seen slightly higher at 7.5% from 7.4%. Ivey PMI is anticipated lower at 65.2 from 66.5.

GBP volatility could increase at 10:00 am ET when NIESR releases its March UK GDP estimate.

Wednesdays Premium Intermarket Insights saw our EURUSD shorts stopped out, which highlights that the difference pointed out in the stochastics in yesterdays chart may have important implications for next week. EURJPY shorts & gold longs remain unfilled. For full charts & trades on these ideas, gold and yields, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/ access/?a=623 Non subscribers, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

There were no surprises in US trading and the FX market reacted by moving sideways. On the day, JPY was the best performer while AUD lagged. Coming up, China returns from a three-day holiday and HSBC releases its China services PMI. Wednesday’s Premium trades include EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, Gold, Oil.

The ECB’s Draghi cautioned that downside risks to growth were prevailing in his post-decision press conference. He also said that inflation may be higher than expected this year but will return to target in 2013. The overall takeaway is that the ECB is comfortable on the sidelines but with a dovish bias should growth continue to slow.

US economic data was close to the consensus. The ADP jobs report showed 209K new positions in March compared to the 206K expected. The February report was revised higher to 230K from 216K. The ISM non-manufacturing index was at 56.0 for March, slightly below the 56.0 expected. The employment component, which is a solid proxy for non-farm payrolls, improved.

Fed policymakers may be edging away from QE3. The Fed’s Williams, who is a dove, said higher inflation has lowered the probability of more stimulus and that the Fed may need to raise rates sooner than late 2014. He was clear, however, that QE3 is not off the table.

The market was defensive coming into the session as long-term periphery yields rose by more than 20 basis points in some instances after a weak Spanish auction. Price action cool in US trading after the data and the majors moved sideways in tight ranges.

Asia-Pacific Preview

China’s return from holiday could add volatility to commodity markets. Copper fell 3.1% on Wednesday and further Chinese selling could push it below key support levels, raising questions about the strength of the global recovery. The lone data point on the calendar is the HSBC China services PMI at 0230 GMT. This is the least impactful of the PMIs but it’s slowly gaining credibility.

In today's Premium Intermarket Insights, we compare 2 market reactions to 2 similar events; the Mar 13 FOMC statement, whose slightly upbeat assessment & inflation recognition lifted USD at expense of equities & metals for only 24 hrs; and; yesterdays minutes release to the same Mar 13 meeting. For full charts & trades on these ideas, gold and yields, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/ access/?a=623 Non subscribers, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Yesterdays FOMC minutes could be more aptly described as eliciting an overreaction rather than a game-changer. The reaction stemmed more from the implied shrinking in the number of members demanding more stimulus, rather than the conditions under which the extra stimulus would occur. The conditions was explicitly stated to be in the event that the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent. In todays Premium Intermarket Insights, we compare 2 market reactions to 2 similar events; the Mar 13 FOMC statement, whose slightly upbeat assessment & inflation recognition lifted USD at expense of equities & metals for only 24 hrs; and; yesterdays minutes release to the same Mar 13 meeting. For full charts & trades on hese ideas, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=623 Non subscribers, please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

UK services PMI solid; Eurozone retail sales declined; German factory orders rose less than expected; poor Spanish bond auction. Focus turns to ECB and its press conference; ADP and ISM non manufacturing. Both of EURUSD longs stopped out, while USDCAD short , silver shorts and oil longs remain in progress. See below for detail.

The greenback continues to add gains to the rally that started yesterday after the FOMC minutes revealed no hints of further QE. European equity indices are lower by about 1% and the relative strength winner is JPY.

UK services PMI printed strong 55.3 in March, up from February's 53.8. The growth in Q1 was the strongest since Q2 2010 and the employment level increased modestly for a fourth month in a row. Considering the solid PMIs results from this week and the CPI that declined slightly less than expected the BOE may put further QE on hold for now.

Eurozone retail sales declined 0.1% in February after growing 1.1% in January which brought the annual figure to -2.1% from previous -1.1%. Continued high unemployment rate, lagging wage growth and rising price of energy contributed to the decline.

German factory orders rose 0.3% in February, higher from previous -1.8% but considerably below expectations of 1.2%. The annual print worsened to -6.1% from -6.0%. The only positive reports from today were final French, German and Eurozone PMIs for March that were revised slightly higher from their initial estimates.

Spain had a poor bond auction today as it sold only EUR 2.59 bln worth of various bonds (2.5 to 3.5 bln target). All average yields rose and bid to cover fell.

The ECB will announce their rate decision today at 7:45 am ET and not on Thursday as usual. The bid rate is broadly expected to remain at 1%.

The US session starts at 8:15 am ET with ADP report that is seen lower in March at 205K from previous 216K.

The highly anticipated ECB press conference starts at 8:30 am. Given the continued worries about the growth outlook and the recent concerns about Spain, it seem unlikely that the ECB president Draghi would hint an exit from existing accommodative policies.

ISM non-manufacturing is due at 10:00 am and it is expected to decline in March to 56.9 from 57.3.

WTI continues to trade under pressure around 103.30. Gold dropped to 1630 and trades near session lows while silver hovers around the 32 mark.

Both of Mondays EURUSD Premium longs were stopped out, while USDCAD short missed he 0.9880 target by 8 pips, now remaining in progress. EURGBP longs in progress and so are silver shorts and oil longs remain in progress. Click here for direct access to Mondays edition http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=622 Non subscribers can click here to join: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/

The minutes of the March 8 FOMC meeting cast major doubts about the likelihood of another round of quantitative easing. The US dollar surged after the release while gold slumped. Australias trade balance is the lone indicator on a quiet calendar.

The FOMC minutes did not contain any reference to a serious discussion about QE3 or any other simulative measures, disappointing those who were expecting hints of a discussion to pave the way for action at the end of April.

The minutes said a couple members indicated further action could be necessary if the economy slows but this was down from a few who made a similar pronouncement in January. The overall take on the economy was similar to the statement, indicating slightly better growth and temporarily higher inflation.

EUR/USD took the brunt of the hit, falling to 1.3214 from 1.3340 in a flash, but other pairs also experienced large declines against the US dollar. The bounce was shallow as well, suggesting the markets first take may have staying power.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Australias trade balance for February is the lone indicator of consequence on the docket in Asian trading. A surplus of A$1.1 billion is expected after a A$673 million deficit in January. Rumors of a major barrier in AUD/USD at 1.03 continue to circulate and the bounce from 1.0301 after the FOMC minutes suggest there is some credence to the talk.

China is closed for the final day of a three-day holiday and trading is likely to be quiet in the latter part of the session ahead of the ECB decision.

RBA left rates at 4.25% and hinted a rate cut; UK construction PMI solid; Eurozone PPI declined. Focus turns to factory orders and later to FOMC minutes. The latest Premium Intermarket Insights remain long EURUSD, with one trade in progress. Other positions include USDCAD, EURGBP, gold, silver and oil. 3 charts added on US ISMs vs UK, GERM, CHIN & Ezone Manuf PMIs, as well as Daily vs. Weekly EURUSD and latest on EURUSDs Golden Cross. More details below.

The greenback trades slightly stronger against most majors. European equities are losing about 0.3% and the relative strength loser is AUD.

The AUD has been under pressure since the beginning of the Asian session after the RBA hinted a rate cut. The cash rate remained unchanged at 4.25% but traders focused on the accompanying statement that said that the inflation outlook provides scope for easier policy and that growth is lower than thought. AUDUSD has dropped from 1.0463 to 1.0372.

UK construction PMI rose in March to solid 56.7 from February's 54.3. New orders rose at the fastest pace in more than four years and confidence continued to improve. As a consequence, the employment grew although a higher use of sub-contractors was noted. Despite the strong print, EURGBP continues to push higher and trades around 0.8335.

Eurozone PPI declined in February to 3.6% from 3.8% on annual basis reaching the lowest level since June 2010 (0.6% from 0.8% m/m). The decline occurred despite considerable rise of energy prices (2.2% m/m and 9.1% y/y).

The US session starts at 10:00 am ET with February factory orders that are expected to rise 1.5% from previous 1% decline.

The key event today is the minutes from the March 13th FOMC meeting that are due at 2:00 pm. The prospects for additional easing were gradually declining in light of improving data. However, dovish comments made by the FED chairman Bernanke last Monday implied that the possibility of more QE is still on the table. One of the possibilities is that the FED could extend the "operation twist" that is set to expire in three months.

For direct access to Mondays Premium Intermarket Insights and the 3 charts , click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=622 NON subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

The ISM manufacturing survey underpinned a rebound in risk sentiment in US trading. On the day, the yen was the best performer with the euro trailing. The upcoming session will be busy with Aussie retail sales, the RBA decision and Chinas non-manufacturing PMI. EURUSD, Gold & US crude oil, with new charts on US ISMs vs UK, GERM, CHIN & Ezone Manuf PMIs, as well as Daily vs Weekly EURUSD.

The March ISM index climbed to 53.4 from 52.4, beating the 53.0 consensus. The employment component was also at the highest since June. On the negative side, construction spending numbers missed badly and several firms revised down Q1 GDP estimates. The current consensus is for a growth rate of 2.0% in the quarter.

The euro and other risk trades slumped badly in early US trading on concerns about the HSBC China PMI and a report (later denied) that the Bundesbank was no longer accepting debt from Spain, Ireland and Portugal as collateral.

Fedspeak was along the usual lines except for Cleveland Fed President Pianalto who is normally dovish but said further easing could put price stability at risk.

The yen was stubbornly higher as Treasury yields declined. The rush to bonds and the yen may have been driven by flows due to the beginning of a new quarter. It did not fit with the broader, positive tone in markets that pushed stocks and commodity prices higher.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Chinas non-manufacturing PMI will be released at 0100 GMT. There is no consensus but this report is gaining clout in the market. At 0130 GMT, Australian retail sales are expected up 0.2% in February after a 0.3% rise in January.

The main event of the session comes at 0430 GMT when the RBA renders its policy decision. No economist surveyed by Bloomberg forecasts a change in the 4.25% rate but there is talk, at the margins, of a surprise rate cut. A more realistic outlying scenario is that policymakers shift to a more dovish stance but that also sounds unlikely to us. Look for AUD to benefit from a neutral statement.

Mondays Premium Intermarlet Insights have new trades on EURUSD, Gold & US crude oil, with new charts on US ISMs vs UK, GERM, CHIN & Ezone Manuf PMIs, as well as Daily vs Weekly EURUSD. Existing trades on EURGBP, USDCAD and Silver. Direct Access to tonights trades found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=622 NON subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

The ISM manufacturing report confirms that US is the only G10 nation whose PMIs (manufacturing and services) have continuously avoided a double dip contraction.While the March manufacturing ISM edged up to 53.4 from 52.4, the Employment component hit a 9-month high at 56.1 from 53.2. New Orders index slipped to 54.5 from 54.9. Meanwhile. With the EURUSD hitting Golden Cross in effect, we remind you that EURUSD rose between 10-18% when the 55-DMA crossed above 100-DMA (3 occasions), and fell 12-20% when the 55-DMA crossed below 100-DMA (3 occasions). Our Premium Intermarket Insights have new trades on EURUSD, Gold & US crude oil, with new charts on US ISMs vs UK, GERM, CHIN & Ezone Manuf PMIs, as well as Daily vs Weekly EURUSD. Direct Access to tonights trades found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=622 NON subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

Chinese PMI; Eurozone manufacturing PMI unrevised but the unemployment rate higher; weak data from Spain; Swiss retail sales declined; UK manufacturing solid. Market turns to ISM manufacturing and speeches by

FED's Pianalto and BOC's Carney. The Golden cross Ashraf warned about on Monday's Premium piece is now in effect. Premium Subscribers see the link in Monday's edition.

The greenback is only a little changed against the majors. European equities are slightly lower and JPY is the relative strength winner.

Risk assets gapped higher in the Asian session after Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 in March from previous 51.0. However, not even two hours later when HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI was released all gains were erased as the index dropped to 48.3 from 49.6. The significant discrepancy between the official and HSBC data is likely to reignite discussions about the quality of Chinese data.

Final Eurozone March manufacturing PMI was unrevised and stayed at 47.7 from February's 49 and German manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.4 from 48.1. The unemployment rate reached a record high in February as it rose to 10.8% from 10.7%. EURUSD has not been able to push above last weeks highs and trades around 1.3355

Concerns that started to surface last week about Spanish economy and about the likelihood that Spain will need financial assistance will probably continue to be on traders' minds as Spanish manufacturing PMI declined further to 44.5 in March from February's 45 and the unemployment rate rose the 23.6%.

Swiss February retail sales declined to 0.8% from 4.7% y/y but SVME PMI rose in March to 51.1 from 49 beating expectations of 49.5. EURCHF continues to trade only a few dozen points above the 1.20 floor.

In the UK, manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations as it rose in March to 52.1 from 51.5 which is the best print in nearly a year. New orders and production rose but costs reached the highest level since 8/2011. UK economy may avoid recession but uncertainty about the economy will persists as hiring is still limited. GBPUSD broke above last week's high and trades around 1.6045.

The US data is limited to ISM manufacturing at 10:00 am ET that is expected to rise in March to 53.3 from previous 52.4.

Markets will also focus on Cleveland FED president and FOMC member Sandra Pianalto who delivers a speech at 12:35 pm and the CAD could experience higher volatility at 12:15 pm when the text of BOC governor Mark Carney's speech is published. The speech itself starts at 12:30 pm and the press conference that follows starts at 2:00 pm.

Thursday afternoons Premium longs in EURUSD saw 1 done, the other unfilled; 1 AUDUSD long was done but both EURJPY SHORTS were stopped out and not all done as was erroneously stated before. 1 Crude oil short was stopped out the other in progress. 1 silver short remains in progress, while gold long was unfilled by 2 pts. Both EURGBP longs remain in progress, See more details below. unfilled, the other Gold long unfilled by 2, 1 Crude short stopped out. DIRECT ACCESS TO THURSDAYs Premium Trades, See here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=621

Parik Urban

The Golden cross Ashraf warned about on Monday is now in effect. Premium Subscribers see the link in Monday's edition. Risk assets climbed late on Friday despite a slowdown in the Chicago PMI. Cable touched a four month high but CHF was the top performer with JPY lagging. CFTC positions showed a surge in yen shorts. We also look at Q1 market performance. JPY shorts jumped to 67K vs 26K prior, reaching their highest shorts since July 2007, when the yen neared its bottom before the explosive rally of 2007-2008. Thursday afternoons Premium longs in EURUSD saw 1 done, the other unfilled; both EURJPY longs done. 1 crude short was stopped out the other in progress. See more details below. unfilled, the other Gold long unfilled by 2, 1 Crude short stopped out

USD/JPY fell below 82 early in US trading on Friday but rebounded to 82.85 by the end of the day. Traders may have been waiting for year-end repatriation before establish long positions. The yen was broadly weaker with EUR/JPY climbing back above 1.10.

An early risk off tone was established by continue concerns about Spain as budget deficit figures were revised higher. Adding to worries was a disappointing reading on US personal income, which rose 0.2% in February compared to the +0.4% expected. Personal spending data was stronger than expected at +0.8% but the mismatch between higher spending and lower earnings is unsustainable.

Regional manufacturing indexes continue the recent disappointing trend as the Chicago PMI slipped from a 10 month high to 62.2 compared to 63.0 expected. Employment slipped to 56.3 from 64.2.

An upside surprise came in the final revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data as it climbed to 76.2 from 74.5. Worries about weather effects on US data may be confirmed or put to rest in the week ahead with the ISMs and non-farm payrolls.

The first quarter of the year features an incredible run-up in risk assets as European policymakers got a handle on the sovereign crisis. The yen was by far the weakest performer falling more than 7% against the US dollar. The best performer was NZD, climbing 5.3% but in a bit of a surprise AUD climbed just 1.4%.

Relative stock market performance also demonstrated the improvement in Europe. Germanys DAX climbed 21% in Q1 compared to +12% in the S&P 500 , +11% in the Nikkei and +3% in the Shanghai Composite. Silver outperformed gold +15.6% to +6.6%.

COT recap

The CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed a sharp rise in yen shorts and a pullback in CAD longs.

EUR shorts increased to 89K vs 82K prior

JPY short jumped to 67K vs 26K prior. Highest shorts since July 2007, when the yen neared its bottom before the explosive rally of 2007-2008.

GBP short were pared to 11K vs 15K prior

AUD longs grew to 59K vs 45K

CAD longs were nearly halved to 23K vs 42K prior

NZD were virtually unchanged, 3.9K vs 4.2K prior

CHF shorts increased to 15K vs 11K prior

Thursday afternoons Premium longs in EURUSD saw 1 done, the other unfilled; 1 AUDUSD long was done and so were both EURJPY longs. 1 Crude oil short was stopped out the other in progress. 1 silver short remains in progress, while gold long was unfilled by 2 pts. Both EURGBP longs remain in progress, See more details below. unfilled, the other Gold long unfilled by 2, 1 Crude short stopped out. DIRECT ACCESS TO THURSDAYs Premium Trades, See here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=621