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Displaying results for week of Jun 19, 2016France 24 اشرف العايدي على قناة
France 24 اشرف العايدي على قناة ماذا بعد خروج في المملكة المتحدة؟
Britain Leaves, Pound Drops, Cameron Quits
Gold finally broke out of its 5-year trendline resistance to hit a new 2-year high of $1358, while the yellow metal soared to the £1000 mark against the British pound, the highest in 3 years.
Now that the UK's trade agreements with the rest of the world under the EU will be void, UK trade lawyers attempting to renegotiate trade agreements with +50 nations are in for a rude awakening at the bargaining table, facing EU negotiators, who will not be making extra efforts to accommodate the UK's trade demands shortly after it has exited the club.
With regards to the myth that Britain could easily strike deals by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules (which entails import tariffs), EU members will demonstrade resistance so as to discourage other nations from emulating Britain's exit, especially given the fact that protectionist feelings are likely to arise when dealing with a large economy such as the UK.
And to address that common misconceptio; Europe does not need Britain more than Britain needs Europe. 45% of British exports go to the EU while only 6% of EU goods go to Britain. Guess who needs whom?
Finally, do you think non-EU nations such as China, Korea or Brazil would find the British market of 65 million consumers more valuable than the EU's 500 million?
Carry on with the wrong facts at your own risk.أشرف العايدي على قناة العربية
Brexit Polltergeist
Four Brexit polls released on the eve of the vote sent the pound swiftly lower and then to the highest levels of 2016. On the day, the Australian dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged. We breakdown the timeline of Brexit events Thursday.
Two early polls showed the Leave side ahead on Wednesday and two released later showed Remain firmly in control.
GBP/USD fell to 1.4640 after Opinium showed Leave ahead 45-44%, a slight improvement for the Brexit side compared to the firm's previous poll at 44-44%. TNS later showed Leave ahead 43-41% and GBP remained under pressure while risk appetite sagged.
At the Asian open, however, a YouGov poll put Remain ahead 51-49% and a phone poll from ComRes had the Remain side up a healthy 48%-42%. Interestingly, every phone poll puts Remain ahead while online polls generally put Leave ahead.
Those late polls sent cable to 1.4844, which is the best level of 2016 and more than 800 pips in the past six days.
Trading the polls and going with the flow of the news is critical in the day ahead so here is the timeline. Polling opens at 0600 GMT (0700 BST) but at least two final polls are expected to be released before that deadline. The voting booths don't close until 2100 GMT, which will leave the market vulnerable to illiquidity and rumours throughout the day.
At the close of voting, two more polls are due from Sky and YouGov. These are not exit polls but were taken on Wednesday. However, they may be presented as exit polls and that could create some confusion. In any case, similar polls released after the Scottish referendum were highly accurate so they're likely to be market movers.
The first actual results – often from Sunderland and Newcastle– will be released sometime between 0100 GMT to 0200 GMT and it will be a steady stream from there. A model from a UK academic estimated that the Leave side should be ahead by 6 points in Sunderland. Other early results from Swindon and Oldham should put Leave ahead around 15 and 10 points, respectively. The market may misinterpret those numbers and mistakenly think Leave is going to win. However, the results will need to be even more lopsided than that to point to a national Leave win.
It will all happen relatively quickly and if one side has a clear lead, it will be essentially 'done' by 0300 GMT and a final declaration will be made around 0600 GMT, assuming there are no recounts.
Yellen Dovish, Cold Feet Coming
Janet Yellen maintained an uncertain tone in her Congressional testimony Tuesday. The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged. We also look at the shape of GBP in the final countdown to the Brexit vote. As per this week's Premium video, 1 set of trades will be issued ahead of the UK refrendum.
We learned a few things from Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony Tuesday. The overall tone was dovish but the shift compared to the FOMC press conference was small enough to be ignored by a market that's fixated on the Brexit vote.
The market continues to price in a 10% chance of a July hike and 30% in September. Even if we assume the 'remain' side wins the Brexit vote, those numbers seem too high.
Yellen was extremely cautious and repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Fed forecasts. Even a series of strong economic numbers through July won't be enough to shift that view and it's highly unlikely to change before September.
After listening to Yellen, it's clear that the case for a rate hike relies on consumer spending. Jobs, business investment, inflation and growth have all disappointed but the latest indications are that the consumer is healthy. Even if that continues, the Fed will need more evidence from those other categories before moving. If the consumer begins to falter, the market will begin to ask if the next move will be a cut.
Of course, the entire financial world could be turned on its head in Thursday's Brexit vote. ORB is out with its final poll and predicts Remain will win 54-46%. That's in line with what markets and betting sites have been flashing this week.
However, there seems to be a small shift back to leave unfolding. Boris Johnson had a strong performance in the final debate and flash polls showed most viewers thought the Leave side was more convincing.
In the past three trading days the market has piled into the remain camp and there is now scope for a 'cold feet' trade before the results. ORB, for instance, is assuming that 3 of every 4 undecided voters will opt for remain. We agree but the risks of being wrong are now massive compared with the rewards of being right. Given that imbalance, the cable risks are to the downside but, like we said in our Brexit playbook, the trade is to go with the short-term momentum in an illiquid market.
The Asia-Pacific calendar is light except for Australian skilled vacancies at 0100 GMT but it will be overshadowed by Brexit flows.
سجل لويبينار الغدنحو الاستفتاء البريطاني الاوروبي
كيف ستسير أمور الاستفتاء على بقاء بريطانيا في الاتحاد الاوروبي؟ وما هي انعكاسات بقاءها من عدمه؟
Orbex أشرف العايدي مع للتسجيل
The Market Has Voted ‘Remain’
It may be time to start thinking about the post-Brexit trade. The pound soared 330 pips on Monday in the third day of strong gains. The Swiss franc was the laggard as money left safe haven trades. The RBA June meeting minutes are due later. There are 6 Premium trades in progress. Tomorrow's speeches by Draghi and Yellen are previewed by the Premium Video (see below) with existing and future trades.
Three polls were released late Monday. NatCen had the 'remain' side up 53-47%, ORB showed 53-46% for remain while YouGov had the 'leave' side retaining a 44-42% lead. Ladbrokes reported that 95% of the money was being laid down on 'remain' Monday.
That same trend was clear in the FX market where the pound soared. After testing 1.40 during the euro 2016 match on Thursday, the pound is higher by 675 pips.
It may be wise to begin searching for opportunities to 'sell the fact' or looking elsewhere in markets. USD/JPY was a curious trade Monday as it faded below 104 from 104.50 despite positive risk sentiment and rising Treasury yields.
The selling came despite a Japanese press report that corporates are not buying the yen (ie selling yen crosses) at these levels. They're waiting for the Brexit dust to settle and hoping for better rates. When they inevitably are forced to buy it will cap gains in USD/JPY or push the pair lower.
An underrated risk on Tuesday is the German constitutional court decision on the OMT. It's an amalgamation of 5 cases and, while we don't pretend to be legal scholars, we know that courts can be unpredictable.
In the immediate-term, the focus will be on the release of the RBA June minutes at 0130 GMT. The statement had a clear wait-and-see message but the market continues to price in a 26% chance of a July cut. An optimistic tone in the minutes should help to wipe that out and boost the Aussie.
At the same time, Q1 data on Australian house prices are due. The RBA has shifted some of the reaction function for housing to macroprudential policy but they will find it hard to ignore the 7.5% y/y rise that's expected.
Other events to watch are the 0430 GMT Japanese all-activity index and a speech from Kuroda that doesn't yet have a scheduled time. The market is desperate for a signal about July easing.
Polls Show Brexit Chance Fading
The Thurs/Fri turnaround in the pound is a powerful signal about the result of the eventual Brexit vote. The yen was the top performer last week while the Canadian dollar lagged. Chinese property prices were released on the weekend and Japanese trade balance fell 32%. On Sunday evening, GBPUSD gapped up by 100 pips to 1.4460s on new polls showing the Stay camp leading over the Leave Camp.
Late in European trading Thursday the pound reversed on the death of pro-stay MP Cox and it continued to soar until late Friday. As a result, GBP/USD finished higher on the week in a 350 pip climb from the lows.
The assassination of Jo Cox is likely to be remembered as the turning point but the 'leave' side was always an underdog. The latest two polls show 'remain' ahead 45%-42% and 44%-43% but the undecideds in a referendum almost always swing heavily toward the status quo.
Perhaps the best signals for the remain side are the GBP/USD technicals. The pair found support at 1.40, which was a critical spot. The reversal also closed above the May low, negating the potential breakdown.
In any case, the race isn't over yet. Expect a few low liquidity twists and turns before June 23 and a flood of trading after the result is clear. Be wary of choppy trading as the market re-opens for the week.
At the same time, the rest of the world continues to turn. Chinese house prices rose 6.9% y/y in May compared to 6.2% prior. Price gains have been accelerating as looser lending this year restores the Chinese housing frenzy.
Looking ahead Brexit polls will continue to the most market-moving news. The UK Rightmove house price index is due at 2301 GMT. The prior reading was +7.8% y/y as house price continue to rise globally on low rates.
