Intraday Market Thoughts

Euro Supported by Stabilizing PMIs

by Patrik Urban
Jan 24, 2013 13:18

German and EZ manufacturing PMI improve but French PMI falls; UK mortgage approvals steady and CBI sales declined; Spanish unemployment rate rise. Market turns to jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI. 17 new trades are added to the latest set of Premium Insights as we carefully approach the pause in the yen and growing momentum in metals.  These include EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, CADJPY, Gold, silver and US crude.

The greenback is mixed in the ongoing session. It is stronger against JPY, AUD and CAD and slightly weaker against the rest of the majors. European equities are little changed.

The common currency continues to trade in relatively narrow range above 1.3300 despite German manufacturing PMI that exceeded expectations as it improved in January to 11 month high at 48.8 from prior 46.0 while services PMI rose to 55.3 from 52.0.Eurozone manufacturing PMI did not stay behind as it increased to 47.5 from 46.1 while services PMI rose to 48.3 from 47.8. Not all was positive though as French manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.9 which is the worst level since mid 2009.

UK BBA mortgage approvals were steady at 11 month high in December at 33.6K and CBI realized sales fell in January to 17 from 19. GBPUSD trades within narrow ranges right at a key short term support at 1.5800. Focus is on tomorrow's GDP release that is likely to determine GBP direction for the following week.

In other news, Spanish Q4 unemployment rate jumped to a new record high at 26.02% and JPY pairs moved higher after Japan's deputy economy minister Nishimura said that USDJPY at 100.00 would not be a problem but rate between 110 and 120 would raise import costs.

US reports are limited to jobless claims at 8:30 am ET that are seen higher at 359K after dropping to 335K followed by Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:00 am that is expected to slow to 53.2 from 54.2.

Act Exp Prev GMT
PMI Composite (JAN) [P]
48.2 47.5 47.2 Jan 24 9:00
PMI Manufacturing (JAN) [P]
47.5 46.6 46.1 Jan 24 9:00
PMI Services (JAN) [P]
48.3 48 47.8 Jan 24 9:00
PMI Services (JAN) [P]
43.6 45.5 45.2 Jan 24 8:00
PMI Manufacturing (JAN) [P]
42.9 44.9 44.6 Jan 24 8:00
PMI Manufacturing (JAN) [P]
48.8 46.8 46.0 Jan 24 8:30
PMI Services (JAN) [P]
55.3 52.0 52.0 Jan 24 8:30
BBA Mortgage Approvals (DEC)
33.6K 34.1K 33.6K Jan 24 9:30
Expectations (JAN)
99.0 97.9 Jan 25 9:00
CBI Distributive Trades Survey (JAN)
17 15 19 Jan 24 11:00
Continuing Jobless Claims (JAN 13)
3.200M 3.214M Jan 24 13:30
Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 20)
355K 335K Jan 24 13:30

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