Intraday Market Thoughts
Gold & Rate Hike Update
by
Jul 6, 2026 18:48
Gold traders must keep an eye on bond market expectations for interest rate hikes. Yes rate hikes. The graphs below show rate hike probabilities for July (while) and September (green), with the latter currently 68% probability for a 25-bp rate hike. See how gold fell and DXY rose when the probability graphs rose. The weaker than expected US jobs report on Thursday triggered a temporary rally in gold and decline in rate hike probabilities, but markets are now repricing probabilities. DXY remains above the 100-week MA, while gold is unable to regain the 55-week MA.
Click To Enlarge

Latest IMTs
-
450 pips Trading Summer Monday
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 19, 2026 21:30
-
This Gold Level is Important
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 10, 2026 12:15
-
Trading USDJPY Post Intervention
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 5, 2026 17:43
-
Gold metric Working so far
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 3, 2026 12:32
-
4200 Gold & Warsh
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 31, 2026 11:26






