Ashraf Laidi discusses the "surprising" release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting indicating "Several" FOMC members favoured stopping or slowing the pace of asset purchases well before end of 2013. Ashraf clarifies there is a vast ocean between slowing down the pace of purchases, seizing purchases altogether, and starting to sell bonds. Slowing the pace of purchases by no means implies a policy tightening. The impact of any shift in policy is more likely to be reflected in rising bond yields than in falling equities. Markets undergo several phases of transition according to the shifts of Fed policy, but one thing is clear is that neother the flow of asset purchases nor the decline in the unemployment rate will ever go in a straight line.
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Gold traders must keep an eye on bond market expectations for interest rate hikes. Yes rate hikes. The graphs below show rate hike probabilities for July (while) and September (green), with the latter currently 68% probability for a 25-bp rate hike. See how gold fell and DXY rose when the probability graphs rose. The weaker than expected US jobs report on Thursday triggered a temporary rally in gold and decline in rate hike probabilities, but markets are now repricing probabilities. DXY remains above the 100-week MA, while gold is unable to regain the 55-week MA.
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DXY Pattern Redux
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