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  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Pause, Ethereum non-Stop, Cutting Cycle in Doubt

    by Adam Button | Feb 5, 2021 17:57
    USD Pause, Ethereum non-Stop, Cutting Cycle in Doubt Chart USD take a breather after weaker than expected US non-farm payrolls, dropping....Ethereum, however, continues to rally, hitting new highs at $1764...GBP is the weakest of the day, after rallying across the board on Thursday as....Below is the chart showing USDX moving in tandem with real US yields against....nbsp;....Remember Jobs Data?....Once again, US NFP diverged with largely positive survey jobs data as payrolls....The unemployment rate fell to 6...3%....BoE off the Table...again....With upbeat forecasts and a unanimous vote, the Bank of England signaled that....Instead, the focus will now be on how quickly Bailey begins the taper and how....The QE program was kept at 895B pounds with the current 4...4B/week pace maintained until St Patrick's Day...It's likely to be trimmed by around 1b/week from there, baring any kind of....The market was caught off-guard by the level of confidence in the central bank....Sterling jumped and as the only currency to hold off the ongoing rally in the US....The BOE is another example of central banks signaling (though not explicitly)....The pandemic has been highly uncertain but after the first wave, consumers,....Though some places may see negative GDP in Q1, optimism about the post-vaccine....As is tradition, the end of the easing cycle means a quick pivot in markets to....Despite the Fed's insistence that it will let inflation run hot, the market....Rates are ticking higher and the US dollar gained for seven straight days..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Euphoria with Questions

    by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2021 16:07
    Euphoria with Questions Chart The divergence between rallying DOW and falling NASDAQ returned on Friday amid a....The upcoming months are likely to offer the greatest convergence in positive....Economies are reopening, vaccines are rolling out and pent-up demand is insane...It's a perfect storm...right? Ashraf sent out yesterday the Premium video (below), stating NASDAQ....Indeed, the index topped at 131120 overnight  before tumbling 300 pts...nbsp;....We called this piece Euphoria with questions, because of the point tweeted....nbsp;....Normally, it's the job of central bankers to end this kind of party by....So we're about to have a great moment in the economy at the same time....It's no wonder US stocks closed at record highs on Thursday and quickly....Last week, Ashraf gave a list of his favourite 15 stocks to members of the....nbsp; ....On the fixed income front, a 30-year sale went off without a problem Thursday...The ECB's bond buys will also help to keep global rates depressed for the....Europe is behind in the vaccine race but they will catch up...In the bigger picture, euphoria will continue to build until fiscal or....The further it goes, the less it will take to deflate the bubble.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Dictates FX & the Rest

    by Adam Button | Mar 23, 2021 18:37
    Oil Dictates FX & the Rest Chart We were going to cover the tailwinds to housing but the deepening selloff in oil....Oil is down 6% after Thursday's 7% plunge, which is triggering broad gains....3770s in cable...DOW30 currently breaking the all important 32600, calling 32330 and SPX....Ashraf informed members of the Whatsapp Broadcast Group about the broken....The snapshots below are from Monday's NASDAQ-DOW-Yields calls to the Group....nbsp;....It's spring in the northern hemisphere and that's the busiest....This year is a particular test because the market has been deeply inventory....One side of the argument is that low rates and social shifts due to the....The other is that high house prices have been brought on by a lack of inventory....If you dont own some cryptos, then we dont know what youve been waiting for...Below are what happened to STORJ and ADA weeks after Ashraf mentioned them to....Look it up for yourselves guys...nbsp;....With restrictions relaxed – particularly in the US – a moment....If a flood of homes undermines recent price rises then it could undermine the....If prices continue to run, then it could supercharge the economy...Similar dynamics are playing out in a number of countries...In February, existing home sales slowed to a pace of 6...22m from 6...66m and that was shy of the 6...50m consensus...Under the surface, prices were up 15...8% y/y and inventories shrank by a record 29...5% y/y...Reports about bidding wars are rampant, particularly in the suburbs and....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Quarterly Closes Point to More Ahead

    by Adam Button | Apr 1, 2021 19:05
    Quarterly Closes Point to More Ahead Chart As risk on is empowerd ahead on the 1st day of Q2, let's assess a few items...The euro closed Q1 at its lowest since November among those crucial charts....OPEC+agreed on gradual hikes...more below)....On the day and on the quarter, CAD was the best performer and the yen lagged...Below is the latest Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio chart...nbsp;....Quarter-end was a typically messy affair that saw some back and forth....What stands out is how many charts finished at the extremes –....Given that we're right in the middle of the recover/reopening trade that'....CAD/JPY was the best trade in the quarter and it touched a fresh extreme....A number of currencies also hit new highs against the yen and Swiss franc...Both of these lagged badly in the quarter in a reminder that yield....EUR/USD also closed on the lows as Macron announced a one-month lockdown....Thursday's rally is interesting because non-farm payrolls will be....One would expect some risk being pulled off the table in stocks and bonds...Yet we saw little in the way of portfolio rebalancing flows...OPEC+ Reaches Gradual Agreement...OPEC+ reached a deal to lift production gradually into Q2...This may help prices on the premise that Saudi sees robust demand ahead and has....The question then remains that of compliance...Will all members join in these gradual production hikes? Who and how much will....55/60, followed by the right shoulder near 62...50/70...nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Glimmer for Gold: Double Top or Bottom?

    by Adam Button | Apr 9, 2021 15:33
    Thursday's gold rally to $1758 triggered cheers of a doube-bottom rally,....US persisted on the upside after a brief interruption from a jump in yields when....Canada jobs reports surprised on the upside (as did all other major G7....CAD is the strongest of the day, while USD broadly lower on the week...We look further at the yellow metal ahead of next week's high profile....nbsp;....Gold went from a post-pandemic darling to a hated asset in a hurry...The long-term implications of ultra-low rates and massive fiscal spending are....At the same time, crypto is sapping would-be gold buyers as prices of alt-....Technically through, the chart is compelling at the moment...Gold put in a double bottom in March at $1676 but it won't be confirmed until a....It closed just below on Thursday after an $18 gain...If it breaks, the measured target is $1864/65 but if it fails, expect a return....Interestingly, the jump in PPI inflation triggered a knee-jerk drop in gold as....This highlights the potential for further yields gains weighing on gold....nbsp;  ....Canada unemployment rate plunged to 7...5% from 8...2%, while employment added 303K new jobs in March...CAD is in an interesting spot though...It's largely shrugged off the latest lockdowns, which are growing....That's because the government now estimates that 75% of adults will have....The loonie is also piggybacking of strong US growth...We also keep an eye on chatter of a BoC taper...The driver for the next leg is likely to be commodities...Oil has been narrowing since March 18 and is coiling up for a breakout...There are few obvious catalysts aside from Iran negotiations but watch WTI..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto Fed's Vaccination Guidance

    by Adam Button | Apr 14, 2021 16:03
    USD drops across the board following oil's 4% jump to 62...90s and markets' shrugging of a US CPI that was a touch higher than....Today's Coinbase IPO coupled with Fed Chair Powell's appearance raises....NZD and AUD are the strongest of the day, with XAU and CHF the only decliners vs....Powell is next...nbsp;....Looking ahead, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 1600 GMT (1700 London, 1800 Dubai)....In an notable comment on Monday, the Fed's Bullard said he would leave it up to....But Bullard also raised the idea that a 75% vaccination rate in the USA may....At times, other FOMC members float ideas and Powell confirms them (like Brainard'....For now, it's premature for him to tee-up a taper but some time in the summer....Looking back at Tuesday's CPI report, it revealed just how concerned markets are....It rose 2...6% y/y compared to 2...5% expected with core and m/m readings also one-tenth above consensus...Markets were clearly fearing worse and the market reaction highlights the focus....nbsp;The knee-jerk trade as higher in the US dollar but very quickly....The takeaway is that the market breathed a sigh of relief that it wasn't a....Yields began to slide after the report as well, something that was compounded....8 bps stop through in the 30-year Treasury auction...Tally it all up and yield fell 4-5 bps on the day and US equities hit fresh....In FX, the slump in the dollar and growing optimism about the European....USD/JPY is also flirting with the April low and cable is trying to form a double....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Shuts Down Taper Talk & USD

    by Adam Button | Apr 29, 2021 13:08
    Powell Shuts Down Taper Talk & USD Chart Any illusions that the Federal Reserve would follow the Bank of Canada's....XAG, CAD and CHF are leading the gains versus USD, while XAU and JPY are the....US Q1 GDP is due up next and we got a hint on Wednesday that it will be strong...EURUSD broke above a key trendline resistance, while bond yields are....DXY traders watching the trendline support im the chart below...The Fed is sticking to its plan of lower rates for longer...The FOMC statement barely acknowledged the improved economic outlook and Powell....ldquo;It's not the time to start talking about a taper,” he said...The Fed chair also said that a transitory rise above 2% this year won&....The US dollar responded by slumping 30-50 pips across the board...The commodity currencies were particularly strong on the day and the....USD/CAD fell to a three-year low...In a bit of a warning sign, US equities finished narrowly lower on the day...Note that after 4 of the previous 8 FOMC meetings, there was a substantial risk....Looking ahead, USD/JPY may get some support from Thursday's first look....The consensus is +6...6% annualized but risks are to the upside after Wednesday's wholesale....The headline though could be overlooked if personal consumption doesn't hit....5%....Weekly initial jobless claims will also be released at the same time and could..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Timing GBP & Gold توقيت تداول الاسترليني و الذهب

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 9, 2021 15:08
    Timing GBP & Gold توقيت تداول الاسترليني و الذهب Chart Full video on calling the fractal in GBPUSD & Gold's breakout with....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed & Taper Danger الذهب و ومخاطر الفدرالي

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 25, 2021 20:16
    Fed & Taper Danger الذهب و ومخاطر الفدرالي Chart How and why gold will avoid the danger from Fed's taper even with....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Cardano & Gold Video فيديو عن كاردانو والذهب

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 28, 2021 14:04
    Updating gold after Powell's speech & latest on Cardano تحديث الذهب بعد..
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