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  • Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of the BoC

    by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2018 14:35
    Ahead of the BoC Chart Today's rebound in global equities are widely received with scepticism as....Worries about global growth sent the S&P 500 to the lowest since May at one....The BOC is expected to hike rates on today but that won't be what moves....EURUSD was stopped out and it's time to assess whether the same pattern....Better than expected results from Boeing are helping to stabilise sentiment, but....The heavy risk off theme in equity markets didn't leave a lasting....The yen was strong but it gained less than 0...4% again the kiwi, which was the weakest major currency...The virtual shoulder shrug from FX put it ahead of the curve as US equities....Importantly, the risk off tone also didn't include a selloff in bonds;....17%....Looking ahead, the BOC decision is the highlight on Wednesday...A hike is wholly expected so commentary and forecasts on the economy will be....Poloz is a natural optimist and his press conferences frequently contains....The daily chat may be showing an inverted H&S formation, which could....3200 but the overall trend remains clearly lower.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Leads Month-End

    by Adam Button | Oct 31, 2018 14:29
    Dollar Leads Month-End Chart The US dollar is nearing the best levels of the year on a number of fronts on a....Global indices are up nearly 1...7%, with the DOW30 trading above its 200-DMA for the 1st time since Oct 23 as....GBP is the only currency rallying against the US dollar, recovering from....The ADP report on private payrolls rose to 227K in September, exceeding....If there's a shoe to fall, it's likely to be China...Sentiment stabilized Tuesday and that led to a 41 point rally in the S&P....Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board was at 137...9 compared to 135...9 expected...The 18-year high was a reminder of the strength of the economy while a miss on....Friday's release of the US and Canada jobs reports will likely confirm....Volatility in indices will likely return next week when US voters get to cast....Several forecasting agencies point to the Democrats regaining majority in the....nbsp;  ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen up as Yields Break Down

    by Adam Button | Mar 22, 2019 11:48
    Yen up as Yields Break Down Chart Bonds rally across the boards as yields tumble on renewed conerns about global....The latest catalyst is German manufacturing deepening into recession...All currencies down vs USD except for JPY...Germany's 10 year bund yield retest zero% and their US counterpart break the....48%--lowest since Jan 2018...UK gilt yields are at their lowest since Sep 2017...Ashraf tweeted that falling yields combined with the 2nd consecutive drop....The US dollar erased its post-FOMC declines against the euro, pound and....One of the catalysts was investors returning to US equities in the hopes....The S&P 500 opened lower then found support at the old quadruple top of 2816....The biggest dollar move was against the pound but that was mostly a story of....The low of the day came ahead of May's meeting with EU leaders and request....There were murmurs about France rejecting a deal and the low was 1...3004...Once the meeting got underway the leaks displayed a more-constructive tone with....The situation will change as the meeting wraps up but the EU's aim is either....If that fails, they want an extension through year end, presumable for time....The better tone helped cable rebound to 1...3109, a bounce of more than 100 pips from the lows...Upcoming Friday data include: Canadian CPI and retail sales...Both will be closely watch and could push the BOC towards cutting rates...The Canadian 10-year note is trading at 1...67%, that's 7 basis points below the BOC's overnight rate in a troubling..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Where to now for GBP?

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 20, 2019 12:19
    You know the market is admittedly clueless about sterling's future....then we will see …....and if it is rejected, then…....rdquo;....I highlighted in last week's chart that implied option volatility on GBPUSD....Those who are bearish GBP will tell you the market is being complacent and....Those who are bullish or neutral GBP will explain the relatively low....Others would stated that a smooth Brexit is inevitable...So what do we think? Will Theresa May wait for the outcome of Thursday's....On Friday, I added an update to Friday's trading update with three charts....Our record in the Premium Insights for the GBPUSD has been improving, with 11....NOTE: UK CPI on Wednesday, EU Elections on Thursday, UK retail sales on..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Johnson Raises Stakes, Pound Holds the Lows

    by Adam Button | Sep 3, 2019 14:47
    Johnson Raises Stakes, Pound Holds the Lows Chart The UK may be headed for an October 14 election...The pound fell on the news to start the week while the yen led the way on trade-....ISM manufacturing is due up next...There are currently 3 Premium trades open (FX, commodity and index), all of....Feel free to use the EUR GBP USD calculator below found in the lower....Boris Johnson raised the stakes of a parliamentary vote on Tuesday aimed to....If he's defeated he will bring forward a motion on another vote....The pound jeered the fresh uncertainty with cable testing new lows for the ....1959 before regaining 1...2030s...The outcome of both votes is entirely unclear...If Johnson fails in the first vote, it would take a two-thirds majority to....If that fails, it puts the UK into an even deep quagmire...Ashraf tells me he's keeping an eye on GBP's 8-year cycle as well as key....Johnson already sounds like someone who is playing the blame game and preparing....He's blaming 'remain' MPs for an impossible negotiating position...Ultimately, an election may create a clear path forward for the UK but in the....Elsewhere, the state of play is also murky...Rumors that Trump might delay tariffs help risk assets late last week but he....The continuing fall in the yuan, Hong Kong protests and capital controls in....Brexit headlines threaten to dominate trading Tuesday but it's also the....Data includes the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending...Hawkish dissenter Boston Fed hawk Rosengren will also speak at 2100 GMT.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Keeps Bonds Bid ahead of GDP

    by Adam Button | Jan 30, 2020 0:24
    Powell Keeps Bonds Bid ahead of GDP Chart The Fed cracked open the door to cutting rates later this year by emphasizing....The dovish tilt dragged yields lower to as far as 10-yr barely standing 1% over....nbsp; The implied odds of a cut this year rose afterwards while the dollar....A close decision from the BoE is due at noon GMT, followed by the first reading....A new trade was issued after Powell's press conference, with the rationale....Powell said the Fed is “determined to avoid” the downward spiral in....The implicit message is that they will cut if there's any stumble in growth...He also offered more hints that the Fed will move to a 'make up'....In the statement, the Fed also downgraded the assessment of household....The overall message continued to be that the Fed was comfortable with rates but....The implied odds of a cut in March rose to 11% and they continue higher from....In terms of market moves, US stocks finished slightly lower as they gave up....The US 10-year note yield fell 6 basis points to the lowest close since April....3 bps from inversion with the 3-month bill...The disconnect between stocks and bonds can't last and USD/JPY is stuck in....The day ahead features the first look at US Q4 GDP and the consensus is for 2...1% q/q annualized growth...A sub-2% number would reignite growth fears but also be wary of risk aversion....The BoE is also due--Ashraf details a 2-pronged trade strategy for GBPUSD ahead..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Special Effects, Gold Retests 1785

    by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2020 16:58
    Special Effects, Gold Retests 1785 Chart Quarter-end directionless trading ensues in indices as the Monday Effect in....More on the Virus-Count Monday Effect below...nbsp;USD is knocked over by all currencies as XAUUSD retests the 1785....A new Premium trade was posted yesterday at the close of the US cash session...Ashraf posted the Premium subscribers' video with a focus on rare price and....The breakout of a triangle in EUR/GBP on Monday (exploited by our Premium....On the fundamental side, market pricing was less compelling...The US dollar is rebounding across the board, attempting to breakout of the 97...70/80 barrier...US Crude oil deserves a close look as its $37 support remains in tandem with....Yesterday, US pending home sales jumped 44...3% in another positive economic surprise, compared to +19...3% expected...There was some follow through in the market on the headlines but it's a....Virus-Count Monday Effects....In terms of the virus, cases in the hotspots were lower but that was surely....There is systematic undercounting and testing in many states/countries coming....The effect often extends through Tuesday before payback begins on Wednesday...By this point, markets should have factored that in but there were....There were also noticeable divergences...The S&P 500 rallied 1...5% but Treasury yields were lower and the US 5-year hit a record low of 0...27%....It's quarter end and it's always easy to point the finger at that for....The lesson at the moment is to watch the technicals but the keep the....On that front, it will be a busy few days in the US starting Tuesday with....It's one of the best forward-looking indicators and the consensus is an....5 from 86...6.

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Turning Point?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 24, 2020 18:29
    USD Turning Point? Chart Here are two charts for the US dollar index and another chart at the bottom of....Is this a turning point for the US dollar? You know the US dollar has a....But let's look ahead: Will USD bulls finally see some light at the end of....But what's beyond that? Read on below...nbsp; The Premium long EURUSD was closed for 295 pips yesterday and the long....The EURCAD is currently +430 pips from the first time it was issued in May 28,....And here is OPEN ACCESS to this WEEK's Premium Video...nbsp;....One USD-positive narrative anticipates that macro damage in and out of the US....nbsp; One USD-negative narrative is that the Fed—which has already reduced....We could also mention surging Eurozone portfolio flows, but we'll stay here....SO let's cut it short and mention some technical signposts, leaving you....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Executive Uncertainty

    by Adam Button | Aug 10, 2020 10:28
    Executive Uncertainty Chart A series of executive orders from Trump on Saturday shifted the balance of power....Friday's non-farm payrolls report beat expectations...CFTC positioning data showed euro net longs at a record...Ashraf will be going away on holiday this week, so his updates/tweets and....أشرف العايدي سيكون في إجازة خلال الاسبوع الحالي...The US President waded into murky legal waters on Saturday with four executive....The two most-notable were a deferral on payroll tax cuts and directive for $400/....Trump doesn't have the authority to waive the payroll tax cut but can delay....However, it's not clear if employers will stop collecting it without knowing....The $400/week stimulus is also dubious legally and will almost-certainly be....It also requires states chipping 25% of the payment and it's not clear all....So while the payments are short-term positive for many Americans, the market&....Ultimately, what the move does is give Congress less incentive to move quickly....It also hands some leverage back to Republicans and means that Democrats may....That would be USD-positive and negative for risk assets and precious metals, an....The non-farm payrolls report on Friday was generally upbeat with unemployment....2% compared to 10...6% expected...There were 1462K jobs compared to 1200K expected...Again, while this is good news on the surface, it also takes away the impetus....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +180K vs +157K prior...GBP -15K vs -25K prior...JPY +31K vs +29K prior...CHF +12K vs +8K prior...CAD -23K vs -13K prior...AUD -1K vs -5K prior...NZD -1K vs -1K prior...The euro net short six months ago was -120K and the turnaround has been....Longs have been rewarded lately as the structure of the euro makes debt....Still, there are considerable economic risks in the eurozone and the growth in....Italy's cases were at a two-month high of 552 on Friday and followed that..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trading in & out of the Fed

    by Adam Button | Sep 16, 2020 16:52
    Trading in & out of the Fed Chart The release of the 2023 FOMC dot plots will send an important signal to markets....A similar story in Wednesday to Tuesday as sterling remains the top performer,....US retail sales rise by less than expected and lower than the revised....nbsp; Below is today's Premium video with suggested positioning ahead....nbsp;....The FOMC decision is on Wednesday at 14:00 EST(18:00 GMT, 19:00 London, 22:00....See Ashraf's view here on the Fed in orange)....There is little intrigue in the decision itself...Better economic data in Q3 has cut the chance of further easing to nearly nil...Instead the focus will be on communication about lower rates for....This edition will feature the introduction of the 2023 dots and will....For 2023, the main question is on the median on rates...In the June forecasts, the median was still on the floor but some FOMC members....If it's enough to move the dot, it could be seen as hawkish and USD....Importantly, the pandemic has also unfolded better than the Fed anticipated...The 2020 growth forecast will illustrate that as the GDP estimate will move to....5% from -6...5% along with better unemployment...A tail risk is that better economic outcomes lead some to see liftoff as....There could also be a shift in PCE higher to account for average inflation....Along those same lines, there is a seasonal bottom in Treasury yields that....A more-straightforward element to watch is the statement and whether it....Given the pandemic and election uncertainty, that's not likely to be....nbsp;..
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