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Results: 321 to 330 of 1,000
Results: 321 to 330 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: From NFP to FOMC Minutes
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 7, 2015 17:54
Euro drops back below the $1...09 level, remarkably shrugging a host of upbeat PMI surveys from the Eurozone....AUD was the biggest winner following the RBA's decision to hold rates....USD's nexy test is tomorrow's release of the latest FOMC minutes...Charts & Analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD/JPY Break Adds to USD Woes
by Adam Button | Jan 15, 2018 23:26
A miserable 2017 has turned into a dismal 2018 for the US dollar and Monday&....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while USD lagged...Japanese PPI is due up next...The Premium long GBPUSD hit its final target of 1...3820 for 330 pip gain, closing automatically ahead of Tuesday's....The week's video for subscribers is posted below...The US was on holiday Monday but that was no respite for the dollar as it....On Friday, the euro and pound broke out while Monday it was USD/JPY as the....84 gave way...Comments from Estonian ECB member Hansson accelerated EUR gains and....He spoke about shifting to more-hawkish ECB language and ending bond purchases....It's part of the increasingly aggressive rhetoric form global central....Contrast that with the US, where the Fed is basically paralyzed until Powell....Looking ahead, Japan is the focus of a light Asia-Pacific calendar with PPI due....The consensus is for a healthy 3...2% rise...Later, the November tertiary industry index is due at 0430 GMT but the real....Both are risks to the high-flying EUR and GBP.
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Intraday Market Thought: Profitable Pitfalls
by Adam Button | Apr 25, 2018 10:36
A slump in equity markets was the dominant theme Tuesday despite some....The pound was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar lagged...AUDUSD was stopped out...A new Index was posted before the London close, prior to the stocks rout...Both Premium shorts in indices are in the green...Caterpillar is a great proxy for global growth...The heavy equipment maker's machines are in high demand when the economy is....The news sent shares of CAT to $162 from $153 in what looked like great news...But markets are forward looking and worries about Caterpillar's....A positive start for the S&P 500 began to sour and shares of CAT dropped....The main index eventually finished down 36 points to 2634...The pop-and-drop is increasingly familiar as earnings season ramps up...It started with a string of great numbers from financials that sparked....It's not a sign of a struggle in the global economy but rather a worry that....Economic data was glowing with consumer confidence at 128...7 vs 126...0 expected and new home sales at 694K compared to 630K expected...At the very least, the latest moves are a sign of a market that's tough to....As we often repeat, the ultimate signal in a market is one that falls despite....It may be time to take heed.
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Intraday Market Thought: Pound Wakes as Theresa May Takes Over
by Adam Button | Jul 25, 2018 12:42
In what's either a sign of cunning or desperation, Theresa May revealed she....The pound gained on the headline but the CAD and CHF remain the leaders in early....So what to make of May pushing aside newly-installed Brexit negotiator Raab?....The latest video for Premium subscribers is below, focusing on the yen's....This is probably more about the internal squeeze than an external one...May has been in a constant battle with Brexit deputies while soft-and-hard....David Davis seemingly used his platform to launch himself into the leadership....For her, this cuts out the middle man, enabling her to negotiate the deal,....By streamlining the process, May could reach a more timely agreement with the....Time is not on her side as she also must avoid possibilities of an internal....If she stumbles, a collapse in her support isn't necessarily a bad....That's a GBP-positive...Overnight, Aussie Q2 CPI rose from 1...9% y/y to 2...1% y/y but below expectations of 2...2% y/y...The RBA is seen sidelined for a long period, while the Aussie remains dragged..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of the BoC
by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2018 14:35
Today's rebound in global equities are widely received with scepticism as....Worries about global growth sent the S&P 500 to the lowest since May at one....The BOC is expected to hike rates on today but that won't be what moves....EURUSD was stopped out and it's time to assess whether the same pattern....Better than expected results from Boeing are helping to stabilise sentiment, but....The heavy risk off theme in equity markets didn't leave a lasting....The yen was strong but it gained less than 0...4% again the kiwi, which was the weakest major currency...The virtual shoulder shrug from FX put it ahead of the curve as US equities....Importantly, the risk off tone also didn't include a selloff in bonds;....17%....Looking ahead, the BOC decision is the highlight on Wednesday...A hike is wholly expected so commentary and forecasts on the economy will be....Poloz is a natural optimist and his press conferences frequently contains....The daily chat may be showing an inverted H&S formation, which could....3200 but the overall trend remains clearly lower.
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Leads Month-End
by Adam Button | Oct 31, 2018 14:29
The US dollar is nearing the best levels of the year on a number of fronts on a....Global indices are up nearly 1...7%, with the DOW30 trading above its 200-DMA for the 1st time since Oct 23 as....GBP is the only currency rallying against the US dollar, recovering from....The ADP report on private payrolls rose to 227K in September, exceeding....If there's a shoe to fall, it's likely to be China...Sentiment stabilized Tuesday and that led to a 41 point rally in the S&P....Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board was at 137...9 compared to 135...9 expected...The 18-year high was a reminder of the strength of the economy while a miss on....Friday's release of the US and Canada jobs reports will likely confirm....Volatility in indices will likely return next week when US voters get to cast....Several forecasting agencies point to the Democrats regaining majority in the....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen up as Yields Break Down
by Adam Button | Mar 22, 2019 11:48
Bonds rally across the boards as yields tumble on renewed conerns about global....The latest catalyst is German manufacturing deepening into recession...All currencies down vs USD except for JPY...Germany's 10 year bund yield retest zero% and their US counterpart break the....48%--lowest since Jan 2018...UK gilt yields are at their lowest since Sep 2017...Ashraf tweeted that falling yields combined with the 2nd consecutive drop....The US dollar erased its post-FOMC declines against the euro, pound and....One of the catalysts was investors returning to US equities in the hopes....The S&P 500 opened lower then found support at the old quadruple top of 2816....The biggest dollar move was against the pound but that was mostly a story of....The low of the day came ahead of May's meeting with EU leaders and request....There were murmurs about France rejecting a deal and the low was 1...3004...Once the meeting got underway the leaks displayed a more-constructive tone with....The situation will change as the meeting wraps up but the EU's aim is either....If that fails, they want an extension through year end, presumable for time....The better tone helped cable rebound to 1...3109, a bounce of more than 100 pips from the lows...Upcoming Friday data include: Canadian CPI and retail sales...Both will be closely watch and could push the BOC towards cutting rates...The Canadian 10-year note is trading at 1...67%, that's 7 basis points below the BOC's overnight rate in a troubling..
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Intraday Market Thought: Where to now for GBP?
by Ashraf Laidi | May 20, 2019 12:19You know the market is admittedly clueless about sterling's future....then we will see …....and if it is rejected, then…....rdquo;....I highlighted in last week's chart that implied option volatility on GBPUSD....Those who are bearish GBP will tell you the market is being complacent and....Those who are bullish or neutral GBP will explain the relatively low....Others would stated that a smooth Brexit is inevitable...So what do we think? Will Theresa May wait for the outcome of Thursday's....On Friday, I added an update to Friday's trading update with three charts....Our record in the Premium Insights for the GBPUSD has been improving, with 11....NOTE: UK CPI on Wednesday, EU Elections on Thursday, UK retail sales on.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Johnson Raises Stakes, Pound Holds the Lows
by Adam Button | Sep 3, 2019 14:47
The UK may be headed for an October 14 election...The pound fell on the news to start the week while the yen led the way on trade-....ISM manufacturing is due up next...There are currently 3 Premium trades open (FX, commodity and index), all of....Feel free to use the EUR GBP USD calculator below found in the lower....Boris Johnson raised the stakes of a parliamentary vote on Tuesday aimed to....If he's defeated he will bring forward a motion on another vote....The pound jeered the fresh uncertainty with cable testing new lows for the ....1959 before regaining 1...2030s...The outcome of both votes is entirely unclear...If Johnson fails in the first vote, it would take a two-thirds majority to....If that fails, it puts the UK into an even deep quagmire...Ashraf tells me he's keeping an eye on GBP's 8-year cycle as well as key....Johnson already sounds like someone who is playing the blame game and preparing....He's blaming 'remain' MPs for an impossible negotiating position...Ultimately, an election may create a clear path forward for the UK but in the....Elsewhere, the state of play is also murky...Rumors that Trump might delay tariffs help risk assets late last week but he....The continuing fall in the yuan, Hong Kong protests and capital controls in....Brexit headlines threaten to dominate trading Tuesday but it's also the....Data includes the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending...Hawkish dissenter Boston Fed hawk Rosengren will also speak at 2100 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Powell Keeps Bonds Bid ahead of GDP
by Adam Button | Jan 30, 2020 0:24
The Fed cracked open the door to cutting rates later this year by emphasizing....The dovish tilt dragged yields lower to as far as 10-yr barely standing 1% over....nbsp; The implied odds of a cut this year rose afterwards while the dollar....A close decision from the BoE is due at noon GMT, followed by the first reading....A new trade was issued after Powell's press conference, with the rationale....Powell said the Fed is “determined to avoid” the downward spiral in....The implicit message is that they will cut if there's any stumble in growth...He also offered more hints that the Fed will move to a 'make up'....In the statement, the Fed also downgraded the assessment of household....The overall message continued to be that the Fed was comfortable with rates but....The implied odds of a cut in March rose to 11% and they continue higher from....In terms of market moves, US stocks finished slightly lower as they gave up....The US 10-year note yield fell 6 basis points to the lowest close since April....3 bps from inversion with the 3-month bill...The disconnect between stocks and bonds can't last and USD/JPY is stuck in....The day ahead features the first look at US Q4 GDP and the consensus is for 2...1% q/q annualized growth...A sub-2% number would reignite growth fears but also be wary of risk aversion....The BoE is also due--Ashraf details a 2-pronged trade strategy for GBPUSD ahead..
