Search Results

Searched for:
Results: 351 to 360 of 1,000

< Prev Next >

1...29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43...100

Intraday Market Thought: Yen Extremes & Opportunities

by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 30, 2022 19:58
Thinning year-end volatility is no excuse to ignore a few interesting....Whether it is the 11th weekly consecutive advance for EURUSD, the....The former can be attributed to a combination of deepening inversion in....The yen's moves are particularly significant despite the recent....The same can be said about gold and silver as they advance over the past 2....Metals' resilience is also setting up to be a major theme of 2023-24...nbsp; But let's talk more about the yen...nbsp;....CURRENCIES PERFORMANCE VS GOLD....The above charts illustrate currencies' performance vs gold...The the bottom right chart (2022), shows USD is the only G10 currency to have....4%....The yen, is the second weakest currency, down 13% vs gold...As I explained in chapter 1 of my book the secular approach to measuring....nbsp;....You will note that in the 14 years between 2009 and 2022, the yen has....Weakest in 2009, 2012, 2021 and 2nd weakest in 2022...Strongest in 2010, 2011, 2016 and 2018...In three other years (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019) the yen was nearly the....Hardly ever the yen's performance was middle of the range...nbsp;....How about the same charts for yen and others going back to 1993? No problem,....What will you notice? You will find the yen's risk-off or risk-on function....Although we have never seen the yen at its weakest over two consecutive years,....How? The yen was the weakest in 1995 and 2nd weakest in 1996—just like....So what happened in 1995-6? The BoJ cut rates down to 0...5% in 1996 from as high as 6...0% in 1990...Can the yen pull off a recovery in 2023? You have 30 years' worth of charts....Will it be a retreat in yields? Will the Bank of Japan finally end yield curve....nbsp; So much to ponder, so many frameworks to consider...Enjoy the Holidays and best wishes for a busy, happy and healthy new year...nbsp;....nbsp;..
Intraday Market Thought: Typical Errors on Gold, Silver, USD

by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 1, 2024 16:14
I've often said in order to better assess the solidity of a gold selloff or....I shall not go into the details of examining the technicals of copper and....Instead, let's focus with illustrations on XAG and DXY...Just as we gleaned valuable information from silver and USD during the low....nbsp; Gold has yet to make any notable pullback since breaking its 4-year....Silver, however, has not yet broken its own 4-year trendline resistance...nbsp;....As long as silver rally does not show the same potency and momentum shown by....Watch today's action for instance, how all currencies are down against the....To better understand the above thesis, take a look at Summer 2020 (blue shaded....In that case, the gold rally and USD plunge was a result of unprecedented....Selling USD, buying indices and buying metals was the easiest and most....nbsp; As long as both the Gold/Silver ratio and DXY are moving closely....A similar example to Spring-Summer 2020 was spring 2021...A contrary example to the above two cases was summer 2022--when the Gold/....There are two clear reasons why this information is vital and useful for....1...It will help you avoid committing the amateur error of blindly shorting the US....2...It will help you avoid buying silver erroneously and irresponsibly (just....nbsp;....Charts wise, instead of focusing on silver technicals, go straight to the....nbsp;....Zooming on the daily chart, you will find EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD mostly....In effect, they're reverting to their medium term support...If you have read the above 290 words of this analysis, then I shall reward you....1...As long as silver is not breaking key technical upside (or downside), then we....nbsp;....2...Said differently, the inverse correlation between silver and US dollar....3...Identifying what is in fact the USD is also part of the equation...Using USD/CNH can help avoid the traps of DXY, which gives more weight to EUR....nbsp;....Overnight, hours after the Monday Asia open (5:16 am British Summer....Indeedm gold peaked at 2265...nbsp;....This is the same WBG to which I shared why $2185 was going to be the target for....nbsp;....The Group was also told of the $2222 target, 10 days before it occured...The explanations, calculations and rationales are all documented on our WBG....nbsp; Ill be happy to share all upon request...Finally, I shared with the Group a unique quantitative rationale on why....nbsp;....nbsp;..
Intraday Market Thought: Politics Overcrowding, RBA Next

by Adam Button | Feb 6, 2017 22:57
Too often market commentators infuse politics into trading when it's a....The yen was the top performer to start the week while the Canadian dollar....The RBA decision is due up next...In the Premium video below "Gold Stands up to USD", Ashraf explains....Economists love to talk about politics...If you turned on CNBC any time over the past decade, the conversation would....Minor changes were blown out of proportion while central banking and....For years, the best trade was to ignore politics and focus on everything else....Not since the financial crisis do political headlines and polls matter so....It started with Brexit and is increasing daily...The political ebb and flow is the trade most days and it's not going to....If you look at the past twenty years, the underlying trend of open borders,....The political actors changed but the story stayed the same, hence, the rules....With the Brexit vote and Trump's election it's clear that the game is....Brexit at first was treated as an isolated incident but it's now....The next fronts are France and Germany...Anti-EU National Front candidate Marine Le Pen continues to poll well as she....Will she benefit from Socialist candidate Emmanuel Macron's loss of....In Germany, the pendulum might be swinging in the other direction....Mexico also appears to be swinging to the Left...What's clear is that the tectonic plates are shifting...There is still some sense of denial in markets that real change is coming but....At the moment, no one knows exactly what the change will look like but....In the short-term what it means is that central bankers are less important that....A case in point will be the 0330 GMT RBA decision...The market is pricing less than a 15% chance of a hike or cut before year end...Unless the statement contains something dramatic, those numbers will hardly move...And without a credible threat on rates, then the inevitable anti-AUD jawboning..
Intraday Market Thought: Poloz Punts, USD Loses Grip

by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2018 10:03
USD struggling to preserve its earlier gains of the day after some data....Before we preview today's key speech from Bank of England's Andy Haldane....The market initially interpreted comments from BOC Governor Poloz as....The US dollar was the top performer and the New Zealand dollar lagged and....A new index trade has been issued for Premium trades based on the same system....A speech from BOC Governor Poloz was the highlight of the day and USD/CAD was....3300 in anticipation, despite another jump in oil prices and a broad rise in....The talk was his last opportunity to clarify the outlook ahead of the July 11....After he spoke, the odds of a hike initially fell to 50% from 60%....The comments were mostly focused on BoC communication style and there wasn't....That's what sparked a rally to 1...3380 from 1...3310...However, Poloz hosted a press conference later with a different tone...He said the BOC's narrative of growth and gradual hikes appears to be....He also said the BOC won't consider trade hypotheticals in its decision...All told, there was the clear impression that Poloz hadn't yet made up his....If anything, he endorsed that kind of volatility as a good thing...Overall, he seemed to be leaning towards hiking...His final comments were much more explicit and that was reflected in a USD/....3329...With some time to digest, it could fall even further but that might depend on....USD is struggling to hold on to its earlier gains of the day after downward....0% from 2...2% and a 9K rise in US jobless claims...The USD was boosted on Wednesday by a smaller goods trade deficit and a large....That sent the euro and pound within striking distance of the June lows...BoE's Haldane speech at 14:30 London will be crucial in swaying expectations....Odds of an August rate hike aere at 67% compared to 73% last week and 45% two....GBPUSD is testing key support at 1...3050, while EURGBP broke above its 200-DMA for the first time in 4 months...Elsewhere, the RNBZ held rates at 1...75%, as expected...The statement once again had a nod to possibly moving rates up or down and....Most of the weakness in NZD/USD came before the meeting in a broad-USD bid....6800 and a fall as low as 0...6784 before a quick rebound...Technically, it will be a critical chart to watch on the weekly close.
Intraday Market Thought: Indices, Silver & Trade Winds

by Adam Button | Sep 23, 2019 14:01
Global equity indices are back in the red with silver sharply higher on....The Euro is on the backfoot after German PMI manufacturing sustained its shapest....Draghi's speech at the European Parliament starts at 9:00 am Eastern (2....Today's appearancees from Fed members include NY Fed's Williams,....Louis Fed's Bullard (who voted for a 50-bp rate cut last week)....It is official, the Fed's liquidity injections are here to stay for another....GBP awaits Tuesday's UK Supreme Court ruling on the proroguing of....Euro shorts stormed back in the latest CFTC data...All 3 existing trades from the Premium Insights are in the green...http://ashraflaidi...com/forex-poll/will-fed-do-qe4....Reports and denials about Chinese officials leave trade talks early....Markets were roiled late on Friday on a report that Chinese officials had....Risk trades dropped on a sign that talks had come undone; something that was....On the weekend, however, both sides released statements saying that mid-....A NYT report said the trips were cancelled by the Chinese side to avoid....That led to early buying in yen crosses...It also underscored how sensitive markets will continue to be to any sign....Looking ahead, GBP traders are eagerly awaiting Tuesday's UK Supreme Court....In the US, the September prelim US PMIs from Markit are due at 1345 GMT...The manufacturing reading is expected at 50...4 and services at 51...5; both improvements from August...Fedspeak includes Williams, Daly and Bullard...Silver outperforms all, while gold pulls back from Sunday night's high as....Fed's Injections Extended to Oct 10....After four bouts of injections last week, the Federal Reserve has decided to....24, Sept...26 and Sept...27...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -69K vs -50K prior...GBP -86K vs -92K prior...JPY +24K vs +33K prior...CHF -5K vs -7K prior...CAD +20K vs +12K prior...AUD -59K vs -61K prior...NZD -36K vs -30K prior....Euro shorts had faded to 39K at the start of the month but they have been....The divergence in CAD positioning versus the antipodeans continues to diverge.
Intraday Market Thought: Pound Jumps, China Inflation Surges

by Adam Button | Nov 11, 2019 16:43
The pound jumped by a full cent to 1...2898 after Brexit Party chief Nigel Farage said his party will not run in....China's consumer inflation hit 7-year highs, complicating the PBOC's....CFTC positioning data showed growing CAD longs and EUR shorts...This week's market highlights include: UK jobs (Tues), UK and US CPI....Gold printed 1448, stopping us out at 1450...A new Charts analysis on gold has been sent to the Premium subscribers...Farage Decides....The pound's surge emerged after Farage said his party will not contest....Farage said his Brexit Party will only contest the +320 seats in mainland....It would be a risk and danger to pound bulls in the event that Leave....China Inflation Dilemma....Chinese CPI rose to 3...8% y/y in October in a surge from 3...0% in September...That was much higher than 3...4% anticipated as inflation has accelerated from 1...5% y/y in February...It's the highest reading since January 2012...The big caveat in the report is pork prices...They've jumped recently because of African swine fever and the trade war...The PPI report showed pipeline prices down 1...6% y/y, slightly worse than the 1...5% expected...Last week, China's central bank lowered one-year medium-term lending....30% to 3...25%....That has the spillover effect of lowering the loan prime rate (LPR) which....While the drop in rates is token in size, it was likely a signal of more easing....A Global Times report Friday said monetary policy may 'switch gears&....The CPI report probably won't derail that plan but it may forced....Much of that will depend on how the trade war shakes out...Surging Treasury yields and record highs in the S&P 500 signal optimism but....Peter Navarro said on the weekend that there is no agreement to rollback any....No one has forgotten how Trump flipped the tariff script on July 31 with a....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -61K vs -53K prior...GBP -29K vs -32K prior...JPY -27K vs -20K prior...CHF -14K vs -12K prior...CAD +54K vs 44K prior...AUD -27K vs -40K prior...NZD -39K vs -40K prior....The soft Canadian jobs report on Friday surely sent a shudder through the....Meanwhile, the euro continues to cement its reputation as the funding currency....That should cap its upside even if the global economy picks up...Finally, AUD shorts were quick to cover following the RBA...This week, it will be interesting to see if NZD can rally even if/when the RBNZ....That would be an early signal of a bottom.
Intraday Market Thought: Fed To Take It Slow

by Adam Button | Feb 2, 2017 0:23
The FOMC decision gave a nod to better sentiment but offered no guidance on how....The US dollar slumped after the announcement with a March hike more in....A new Premium trade has been added, backed by 6 reasons and 3 charts...Having broken a key moving average for the 1st time in 366 days, this trade is....The Fed funds futures pricing for a March 15 hike is at 32...0%....That's rich given the FOMC statement was largely the same...There was a notable upgrade on consumer sentiment and it removed some caveats on....The Fed said the balance of risks was neutral and that hikes will be gradual...The FOMC is clearly in wait-and-see mode on the economy and politics...About half the FOMC upgraded forecasts to include fiscal stimulus but that'....They want to see some hard evidence from Congress before they proceed and they....It's a similar story on the economy...There has been good news but it's been in sentiment and that's....Those high hopes can be unwound quickly unless they're followed by growth....A good sign came from the ADP employment report with private jobs up 246K....The report has been correlating more closely with non-farm payrolls lately....The other notable news was from the UK where the first reading on the Article....The tally was 498 votes to 114 so while the final vote is likely to be closer,....From a trading perspective, we were impressed by the bid in the pound....Some much negativity is priced in and shorts are crowded and taking every....All eyes turn to Thursday's BoE inflation report & Carney's..
Intraday Market Thought: Broken Cross Market Correlations

by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 10, 2017 18:37
As cross-market correlations break down further, traders are increasingly urged....The most obvious breakdown is in the relation between the US dollar index and....This has also extended into the breakdown between bond yields and stocks...A new Premium trade was posted last night in a commodity currency, whose....The positive correlation since November was founded on the premise that Trump&....But as the New Year opened and Trump's enthusiastic campaign promises turned....FX and metals traders will inevitably shift their attention to next week's....But Yellen may offer little in the way of clues as she will likely indicate the....e...right before the March FOMC meeting...Until then, the dollar's binary trade will rest upon the timing and..
Intraday Market Thought: EUR/CHF & Pre-Fed Positioning

by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2017 10:51
The Fed decision, Brexit, the G20, BOJ and Merkel are getting all the attention....The pound is the worst performer so far today (since Monday's NY close)....A new video for Premium subscribers has been posted (below) on the Pre-Fed....So what's going on with the Swiss franc? The euro gained had gained more....The moves have awoken what was a sleepy trade...That has come in tandem with recent rises in sight deposits, which can....Adding a kink was that Monday's weekly data showed sight deposits down...That was released around the same time that the Swiss stats office bumped its....5% from +0...3%....The thinking goes that SNB and investors remain worried about the elections-....They could fight back by cutting interest rates but that's a tough....It's all a bit headscratching but it has us ready for anything from the SNB...As we wrote yesterday, we're also preparing for the Article 50 trigger...On Monday, parliament voted to give May the final say on the deal with the EU,....The vote now goes back to the House of Lords...There was talk that the clause could be invoked late Tuesday but that's no....The Independent reports that Article 50 won't be triggered until at least....The pound was perky despite continued talk of a Scottish referendum.
Article: Protectionism won't Protect USD

by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 27, 2017 14:46
The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and....nbsp; We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners....Regarding the chart below: Yes, there were other factors driving the USD in....nbsp; But US trade actions are no longer going unanswered...The most recent example was W Bush having to reverse the 2001 steel tariffs....nbsp; Imagine what the Chinese could do...Historical reminder: Since the 1990s, currency traders have consistently sold....Parallels with February 2002: It is no surprise that George W...Bush's war declaration on foreign steel in late 2001 aimed at saving the....By the time the WTO fined the US $2 bn in sanctions, the US dollar had lost 12%....Not only we reiterate our long-held position that there will be NO parity in....10 towards end of Q2...Next Week's Fed Statement & US Dollar....Considering warnings about USD strength by Trump and Mnuchin, any mention of the..