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  • Intraday Market Thought: OPEC Extends, Oil Crumbles

    by Adam Button | May 26, 2017 0:02
    OPEC Extends, Oil Crumbles Chart Crude prices fell 5% as traders sold-the-fact on a 9-month supply cut extension...The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...Japanese CPI is due up next...الإسترليني و النفط: إلى اين؟ (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Management is the art of communication and that extends to market management as....A month ago, a nine-month extension of OPEC/non-OPEC supply cuts would have....Instead, stories began to circulate about a six-month extension...That was followed by talk of a nine-month extension and it was eventually....By the time today's nine-month extension was announced it underwhelmed....80 from $52...00...Brent had a similar 5% fall...The challenge now is to separate the disappointment trade from the....At current levels, oil is well below the Dec-Feb range and is nearing the March....It's still far above May's $44...00 low...An offshoot of the oil trade is USD/CAD...That pair rose 65 pips on Thursday but that's less than the bulls would....You have to wonder if CAD has been hit by so much bad news – and with....Switching gears, the week winds down for Asia-Pacific traders with a Japanese....The April numbers are due at 2330 GMT and expected to be up 0...4% year-over-year but flat excluding fresh food and energy...Another event to watch is a speech from the Fed's Bullard at 0200 GMT...He's said previously that he doesn't think another hike is necessary but....Finally, the RBA's Richards is in a panel presentation at 0430 GMT.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Fed & ECB Minutes

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 16, 2017 16:13
    Ahead of Fed & ECB Minutes Chart Commodity currencies dominate a quiet Wednesday summer session as traders....nbsp; Recall the dollar fell sharply on that day, partly due to escalating....So what did the Fed say on Jul 27? The Committee made two minor changes: i)....Also note that 3 weeks after the Fed decision, July CPI was a miss...Today's minutes may further enlighten us and whether the inflation....nbsp;....Let's also not forget tomorrow's release of the ECB minutes from the Jul....Today's rally in the DAX and retreat in the euro were spurred by Reuters....Yet, this remains a matter of “when” rather than “if”....A new index trade has been issued to Premium subscribers after the two..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Inertia

    by Adam Button | Oct 3, 2017 15:53
    Central Bank Inertia Chart A quite Tuesday in the markets following a fast-moving risk-on Monday and a busy....Germany is closed for a public holiday...The ISM manufacturing index jumped to the highest since 1988 but it might be a....NZD is the day's worst performing currency after a 2% decline in the dairy....The RBA reiterated its concerns with Aussie strength to the extent ot....Tuesday's Premium GBP trade is now in the green...The chart below is one of the 3 charts backing this trade...The ISM manufacturing index rose to 60...1 compared to 58...1 in September and that gave a slight lift to the US dollar...What could lend a more-lasting bid is a hawkish tilt from the Fed...What they're watching for is a genuine sign of inflation...An early one came in the prices paid component, which was at 71...5 compared to 63...0 expected...That's a six year high...The quick take is that hurricanes caused a temporary spike (and the mild USD....Other positive signs for the dollar were construction spending at +0...5% versus +0...4% prior, a rise in the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker to +2...7% from +2...3% and another record for stock markets...GBP broadened losses as interest rate hike speculation took a back seat to the....Disappointing manufacturing and construction PMIs sped up GBP selling,....The RBA reinforced its view that a stronger AUD is "weighing on the....Meanwhile the RBA made a rate cut non-viable as it would further fuel..

  • Intraday Market Thought: China-US Dealmaking Underway

    by Adam Button | May 14, 2018 11:20
    China-US Dealmaking Underway Chart Signs of a thaw on trade between the US and China could help risk appetite to....Last week, the Canadian dollar was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...Yesterday, Trump commented on progress in the US-China trade talks (more in....Euro pushed higher after remarks from ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau....Also weighing on USD were statements from Fed's Loretta Mester that the....Trump tweeted that he had instructed the US Commerce Dept to ease up on a parts....It wasn't clear what Trump may have gotten in return but it could be....In any case, it's a small sign of better relations...Late Friday, there were reports that Mexico has begun its annual oil....The Ministry of Finance will spend the next six months locking in 2019....News that it was starting led to some late selling in crude Friday...The decision to lock in prices near the $70s would be more beneficial than last....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +121K vs +121K prior...GBP +9K vs +26K prior...JPY -5K vs -1K prior...CAD -33K vs -19K prior...CHF -33K vs -19K prior...AUD -6K vs -7K prior...NZD +13K vs +17K prior....The two notable moves were to cover sterling longs and to sell the Swiss....The spec market as obviously caught offside in GBP longs and was forced to....The shift into franc shorts might represent more optimism for equities and....The SNB is miles away from a hike into positive territory...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: China to Hit Back?

    by Adam Button | Jul 19, 2018 13:23
    China to Hit Back? Chart China's Commerce Ministry said it will have to take further measures to....But as USD/CNY hits hit fresh 4-week lows, it is sending all major currencies....A new JPY Premium trade will be issued for subscribers...مكافأة خاصة للمشتركين...GBP broke below $1...30 after an unexpected decline in UK retail sales...USD pushes higher after jobless claims fell by 8K to a fresh 48-year low, while....7 from 21...5 after a previous dip...The trade war this year has confounded most analysts, it's the boogyman of....It seems to appear from time to time and sends a fright into the market only to....Each time a few bulls are spooked out of the market while the rest seem to carry....The problem here is that the trade war is real...The US revealed a new proposal for uranium tariffs Wednesday and China'....The boogyman is real and analysts and economists continue to talk about it...Does the market believe it? USD/JPY fell on Wednesday on the China headlines....If you've been following this story, that's a recurring theme...Every trade war scare headline-move has been erased so far...Sometimes it's quick, other times it's slow but a portion of the market....How does it end? Either the dip buyers continue to dominate and it ends with....What might that tipping point be? Most would point to the tariffs on $200....Until then, the dip-buying trade will slowly get more crowded.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Housing Headaches

    by Adam Button | Aug 24, 2018 11:19
    Housing Headaches Chart The world's largest asset market isn't the bond market, it's housing....As the Australian dollar lagged once again on Thursday, we take a closer look....US durable goods orders are up next...The US economy is strong...In Tuesday's FOMC minutes, most participants saw growth running above 3%....We find it tough to disagree with the strength of the consumer underscored by....Yet Tuesday's existing home sales report was weak at a pace of 5...34m compared to 5...40m expected...That was the fourth straight monthly decline and sales are down 1...5% year-over-year as well...It's not an isolated report...On Thursday it was more of the same with the FHFA house price index at the....New home sales fell to the lowest since October at 627K compared to 645K....Most housing indicators have struggled this year...The likely issue is a mixture of higher interest rates, land-use policy and....Another potential trouble spot is Australia...There are increasing reports of stress near Sydney and Melbourne, especially in....There are waves of interest-only mortgages coming due in the months ahead....Scott Morrison, Australia's Treasurer became the nation's sixth..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Correction here to stay, DUP Kneecaps May

    by Adam Button | Oct 23, 2018 13:45
    Correction here to stay, DUP Kneecaps May Chart Stocks resume their selloff, with DOW30 and SPX500 extending falls below their....7% from the September highs...Gold and silver are outperforming all currencies, with the fomer decisively....Cable fell more than a full cent Monday after the DUP said it would support a....Italy's budget awaits final word from the EU and Turkey's Erdogan....The DAX and DOW shorts hit their final targets for 370 and 360 pts gain....New trades will be issued ahead of Friday's highly anticipated US GDP....Euroskeptic parliamentarians are worried that Theresa May could force the UK to....She's stuck between the EU and members of her own party who want a....She made a speech on Monday saying 95% of the deal was done in an effort to....The amendment itself was later dropped but the willingness of the DUP to vote....That uncertainty is what sent cable to the lowest since Oct 4...The Bank of England is seen to be sidelined until the dust clears on a....However he will speak at 1520 GMT in Toronto and his comments could add....Less than 24 hours after Chinese stock markets ripped higher Fri/Mon in their....Fundamental repricing of coprorate earnings and the ascent of bond yields....What's equally notable is how little that upbeat sentiment has spilled over...US equities fell again on Monday and the commodity currencies closed near the....The divergence continues.

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Awaits May's Speech, Risk back off

    by Adam Button | Mar 25, 2019 13:59
    GBP Awaits May's Speech, Risk back off Chart Global indices are back in the red and GBP pushes near the session high ahead....Optimism resurfaces on chatter about optimism towards a 3rd vote...All currencies are up against USD since the start of the Asian session, except....Gold and silver are at the top...Chicago Fed's Evans said it was understandable to be nervous about the....The Premium short in DOW30 was closed on Friday at 25530 from Tuesday's....Below is a snapshot of the  chart & tech rationale for the trade...Over the weekend, reports of a UK Cabinet coup have circulated with May to....Lidington denied the report on Sunday and senior ministers rallied behind May....May can't technically be forced out because she won a leadership challenge....Lidington is staunchly pro-Europe so a change might be positive for the pound....Most likely he would simply be a caretaker PM until Conservatives could....That's something that could stoke a civil war within the party and lead to....The summary of US Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report found that US....Nonetheless, attorney General Barr's summary is inconclusive as to whether....With regards to the inversion of the yield curve: There are various ways to....On Friday, yields on the US 3-month T-bill are below that of the 10-year...It may have only been a momentary blip but other parts of the curve out to 5....Such a move preceded the past 6 US recessions by an average period of 313....The inversion and huge rally in bonds from Wed-Fri belie deep worries about....The S&P 500 fell 54 points to close out the week with the market closing at..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why GBP is Year's Best Performer

    by Adam Button | Apr 17, 2019 12:33
    Why GBP is Year's Best Performer Chart Commodity currencies finally breath sigh of relief after better than expected....UK CPI held at 1...9% y/y in March, while Eurozone CPI held at 1...4% in the same month...Canada CPI follows next...Let's talk about the UK but not Brexit...And here's a chart of the UK's economic surprise index versus the rest....Currencies focus on flow and expected rate of change...Brexit has absolutely dominated headlines and trading in the pound for....UK unemployment held steady on Tuesday in what was largely a non-event for the....UK earnings growth at 3...5% y/y matched the high from 2008...Later in the day, negative comments from Corbyn about negotiations with May sent....3045...While Brexit headlines will continue to be market movers, we're likely stuck....That means their impact will ebb, flow and likely fade in the days and weeks....Instead, the market will turn its attention to economic data...Today's UK CPI was described to have missed the target, but remains the best....Thursday's retail sales report excluding auto fuel, sales are forecast....3% after a 0...2% rise in February...Some Brexiters may say: "We told you UK economy would do well despite....Overall, UK GDP forecasts for this year have slipped to 1...2% from 1...5% at the start of the year but that's in-line with much of the developed....Some of that is a result of Brexit uncertainty, which has diminished after....The Citi Economic Surprise index at +36 is one of the better global readings so....Given the negativity in GBP and the uncertainty, risks are skewed towards..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Upends Central Scenario

    by Adam Button | Apr 30, 2019 10:30
    Inflation Upends Central Scenario Chart An emerging theme of disappointing inflation readings is something to keep....nbsp; USD is down across the board amid month-end rebalancing...US consumer confidence is up next...The Weekly Premium video is posted below for subscribers, containing some....The undeniable theme of the past 10 years in central banking is....It's been nearly universal across developed market regions with rare....The trend appears to be continuing...In Monday's US PCE report, core inflation was 1...55% y/y compared to 1...7% expected with the prior also revised lower...The inflation numbers were also soft in Friday's GDP report...Europe is also struggling with low inflation and another round of data is....For most of the past decade, central bankers have been content to push out....That faith has been shaken, and it's causing a re-think at the Fed and....There is a growing worry that central banks will go into the next recession....That's dragged inflation expectations lower and leaves them....Influential Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is increasingly....The solution may be to allow or engineer above-target inflation for a period...The hope a few months ago was undoubtedly to simply leave rates....Yet,  with prices trending lower pressure may galvanize to cut rates...For now, policymakers will continue with patience as stock markets hit fresh....It will be interesting to note how this week's Fed statement adjusts to the....The day ahead features a healthy dose of economic data including US consumer....Canadian scheduled news includes February GDP and Poloz at parliament.
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