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  • Intraday Market Thought: From Eurozone CPI to US PCE

    by Adam Button | Nov 30, 2017 12:44
    From Eurozone CPI to US PCE Chart Aside from the news of Bitcoin rocketing to $11,434 before plunging back to....nbsp; Markets turn next to US October core PCE index, the Fed's favourite....4% from 1...3%....Earlier, Eurozone preliminary Nov CPI rose to 1...5% from 1...4%, undershooting expectations of 1...6%....The Premium Insights service took 150-pip gain in GBPUSD...A new trade will be posted before start of the US opening bell...Bitcoin was gripped by the FOMO phase over the past month and that led to an....It continued through $10,000 on Wednesday until a wave of profit taking....Later, it rebounded to $10,200 but some exchanges were having difficulty...The volatility created a massive indecisive candle on the chart and that....However, all the attention and volatility hasn't been a negative up....In financial markets, the main story on the day was a rise in global bond yields...German and US 10-year yields rose 5-6 bps and that was a reason to buy yen....USD/JPY rebounded for the second day and hit 112...00...The gains came after some upbeat comments from Fed Chair Yellen...She said growth was becoming more broad based...The second look at Q3 GDP was also revised to +3...3% from +3...2% in part due to strong business investment...The most-solid trend at the moment in FX is sterling's climb...It's risen in 10 of the past 12 sessions and is trading at the best....Ashraf pointed out in the video that the 7 consecutive daily gains were the....Signs of progress on Brexit negotiations continue to mount and that's..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Bonanza

    by Adam Button | Dec 8, 2017 10:57
    Bitcoin Bonanza Chart We are fast approaching the make-or-break moment for Bitcoin...Prices gyrated wildly Thursday with some exchanges nearing $20,000 but systems....In FX, sterling gathers upward momentum on news that DUP intends to strike a....The US jobs report is up next...2 new trade actions in the Premium Insights were issued on EURUSD...It's impossible to avoid talking about Bitcoin at the moment, which is....What's not clear is how and when it will end but aside from the violent....The first is the increasingly slow and expensive transaction costs...It's clear that Bitcoin will never replace fiat currency – long one....It currently costs $13 to do any transaction and takes upwards of 7 hours....One thing everyone will be hearing more about in the days ahead are the mempool...This is the backlog of transactions and it's growing at a fast rate...If there is ever a stampede to the exits, this problem will be a devastating....At the same time, the exchanges are under increasing strain...Outages hit the main trading hubs again on Thursday...That's a major red flag...Bitcoin has proven significant resilience to bad news...The dip after hitting $10,000 was bought and reports of hacks, theft and fraud....That's a sign of a roaring market...The catalyst that everyone is watching is the introduction of futures trading....Both are cash-settled contracts so they shouldn't affect the underlying....We will be watching closely...Elsewhere, the US dollar founds its legs on Thursday as USD/JPY rose to a three-....Non-farm payrolls is due on Friday and indications from the ADP report was....If they tick up, then the dollar could start to recover much of the July/Aug..

  • Intraday Market Thought: US Dollar Rebounds. What Next?

    by Adam Button | Jan 29, 2018 23:38
    US Dollar Rebounds. What Next? Chart Another bounce in the dollar to fade? The greenback was the top performer....Japanese employment and retail sales are due up next...بين الفيكس و المؤشرات (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....US Treasury yields continued the march higher with 10-years hitting 2...70% on Monday and that was part of the reason for a bounce in the dollar...Another factor was US personal income beating expectations a +0...4% m/m compared to +0...3% expected...Spending was slightly lower than expectations but the prior revised....The Atlanta Fed pegged its first tracking estimate at Q1 GDP at 4...2%....While there is solid optimism about the US dollar, there are higher hopes....All the money that flowed into the US dollar during the European crisis is now....Emerging market and commodity investors are also shifting towards more....So long as risk appetite remains robust – and there is no reason to think....Even on Monday, the strong start for the dollar that pushed the euro down to 1...2337 faded later and it bounced to 1...2375...In terms of USD/JPY, the pair battled to get above 109...00 and was helped by talk of a BOJ/MOF meeting but it's too soon to talk....As for what's next, Japanese employment is due at 2330 GMT but the....The consensus is for a 0...4% m/m decline...It's unlikely to be a market mover but if Japan can put together a long..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The 3% Quandary

    by Adam Button | Feb 21, 2018 23:24
    The 3% Quandary Chart The FOMC Minutes led to a whipsaw in US dollar trading Wednesday and exposed a....The US dollar was the top performer once again while the Australian dollar....China returns from holiday in the day ahead...9 Premium trades are currently in progress, 2 of which in indices...The FOMC Minutes didn't offer much in the way of surprises but ....The US dollar fell 30-40 pips across the board on the headlines only to make a....In the lead-up to the release, there was fear about an especially hawkish set of....Instead, there was the predictable optimism about growth along with hints....At first, it seemed fears in the market were soothed...The US dollar dropped and stock markets rallied...But bond traders pushed yields further in a sign of jitters about four rate....A short time late, stocks joined bonds lower and USD rallied...The looming level is 3% in the 10-year note...It rose 6 bps to 2...95% Wednesday – the highest since 2014...Along with the big figure, the 2014 high of 3...06% is a major level of resistance...At this point, other markets are beginning to get worried about the....We get the sense that many are heading to the sidelines to see how it will....Ultimately, 3% is just a number and it's not a magical line in the sand that&....But until then, expect further jitters to continue...If you're in London this week, you can attend Ashraf's full assessment....Looking ahead, the Asia-Pacific economic calendar is light but it includes the....That's likely to add a bit of volatility and certainly some flows...Further down the agenda, the Fed's Quarles speaks at 0515 GMT along with....All that should make for plenty of action.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Signals Within the Wild Ride

    by Adam Button | Mar 28, 2018 14:00
    Signals Within the Wild Ride Chart US dollar strength on Tuesday morphed into risk aversion...The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific calendar is light...A new JPY trade has been posted for Premium subscribers...End of month and end of quarter flows will likely enforce USD corrective....انتهاز الحركات التصحيحية (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Ashraf warned about yen strength late last week and that unfolded in the....It has been a harrowing time for intraday traders with some major swings....The confluence of trade jitters, tech/privacy worries and month-end came....The S&P 500 fell by as much as 61 points at the lows after gaining 20....USD/JPY was sucked lower down to 105...38, erasing what had been a strong start to the day for the dollar...But the overall USD corrective action has forced the pair towards 106...20s as indices attempt to get back in the green...The dangers of trading at month/quarter end are well known but the swings in the....Note the consistent pattern risk aversion in late Jan, Feb and now March....nbsp; For the S&P 500, it's critical that it stays above the 200-day....A worrisome signal emerges from bonds as 10-year yields fall below recent....77%....That could help to accelerate USD/JPY towards the targets that Ashraf has....For what's next, continue to watch for headlines on trade but note that....Moody's downgrade of Tesla's, Goldman Sachs' downgrade of Apple&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Minutes & Geopolitics Balance out on USD

    by Adam Button | Apr 11, 2018 19:28
    Fed Minutes & Geopolitics Balance out on USD Chart USD struggles to hold on to gains sustained following the release of the....US-Russia relations hit hard by President Trump's statements on....CAD and JPY were the highest performers of the day ahead of the minutes....2% as expected...The premium short USDCAD trade was closed for 230-pip gain...Below is the week's Premium video...The minutes indicated: “A number of participants indicated that the....Yet, most Fed members saw wage gains as "moderate", while a strong....Aside from broad USD weakness, EURUSD remains boosted by ECB's Nowotny....Nowotny said the ECB will end asset buys by year-end then talked about raising....The market entirely expects an announcement to end QE this summer but....An ECB spokesman later announced that he was only speaking for himself...Novotny is an experienced member of the Governing Council so it's an odd....Today, EURUSD is up for the 4th straight day...nbsp;....In the bigger picture, risk appetite was buoyant after Xi's attempts to de-....That was later followed by a tweet from Trump thanking him for the progress...The change in tone sent the commodity currencies and equities solidly higher.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Nudged By Nukes

    by Adam Button | Apr 30, 2018 23:35
    Oil Nudged By Nukes Chart We warned earlier to watch the Iran nuclear situation closely, and it became....The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the New Zealand dollar....We take a look at May seasonals as the new month begins...A new Premium trade in a major index was posted earlier today...It is currently 150 pts in the green...Geopolitics is always a guessing game...The talk always exceeds the action but people and markets are fearful by nature...On Monday, Netanyahu revealed that Israeli intelligence uncovered a trove....Without getting into the details, there are two questions: 1) Will anyone attack....The first remains extremely unlikely at this point, despite some hawks in the....War is unpopular in the US and would have no support in Europe...On the second question, the market is leaning towards expecting sanctions,....Oil jumped more than $1 from the lows Monday on Netanyahu's speech...That might be the wrong takeaway...Instead, this could be the next wave of a coordinated US-Israel PR campaign....If so, it didn't appear very coordinated Monday...In comments after Netanyahu's speech, Trump said the same things he's....More likely, it was a solo attempt by Israel to influence leaders in the west....We will be watching Trump's twitter closely for clues...The calendar now turns to May for the forex market...Seasonal patterns performed well in April and some seemed to get a head....One is Australian and New Zealand dollar weakness...They were strong to start April but cratered late in the month...The seasonal picture remains dark with May as the worst month for AUD and third-....It shouldn't be a surprise that it's also a tough month for base metals...Global equity markets were strong in April, especially outside the United....The old adage about selling in May doesn't really apply...It's a weaker month than April, but by no means a poor month...It is, however, the weakest month on the calendar for the euro and with EUR/USD....20, it could get weak in a hurry.

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD, Indices Firm in Light Day

    by Adam Button | May 7, 2018 22:33
    USD, Indices Firm in Light Day Chart A slow start to the week from a data vaccum and UK holiday did not stop from....Friday's release of US non-farm payrolls threw a curveball at the market....The week's key events are US CPI and BoE inflation report on Thursday,....President Trump's tweet that hey may shed more clarity on the US future role....The US average hourly earnings component of non-farm payrolls has accounted for....1% compared to +0...2% expected...From there, the tide slowly turned...Part of that was likely the underlying momentum that's made the US dollar....But part of it was also unemployment falling to 3...9% from 4...1%....A three-handle on unemployment is something that's going to make the....The US dollar hit cycle highs Friday, sending EUR/USD and cable to lows...Some profit taking hit late in the day but the underlying demand for the dollar....Things we will be watching this week include the Iran nuclear deal, the....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +121K vs +131K prior...GBP +26K vs +37K prior...JPY -1K vs +1K prior...CAD -28K vs -28K prior...CHF -19K vs -10K prior...AUD -7K vs -3K prior...NZD +17K vs +24K prior....US dollar shorts have covered somewhat in the past two weeks but there is no....It will be a slow start to the week with the UK off for a holiday on Monday but..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade War Tell

    by Adam Button | Jun 26, 2018 11:27
    Trade War Tell Chart Global equity indices attempt to recover from Monday's selloff but US index....A trade war wouldn't spill blood but it would certainly turn markets red and....The Premium Insights closed Friday's DAX short with a 290-pt gain on Monday....بين المؤشرات و الدولار (فيديو للمشتركين)....US equity indices fell by more than 2% on Monday after a pair of reports in the....That set a negative tone for the week but it was a slow burn in equity markets....That prompted the White House to send out two top deputies, Mnuchin and....Markets finally bounced when Navarro took the airwaves shortly before the....That also sparked a 50 pip rally in USD/JPY...For the moment, there is no sorting through the confusion although it's....At the same time, China's Xi reportedly told global CEOs on the....Actions remain more important than words -- Trump's stock market priorities....He measures himself on approval ratings and the DJIA...Navarro was on CNBC...The message here is that the White House may want to be tough on trade but the....Perhaps Trump thinks he can have it both ways but if push comes to shove, it....That might help to explain why the FX and bond markets were so sanguine even..

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD up on CNY Rumblings

    by Adam Button | Jun 27, 2018 11:41
    USD up on CNY Rumblings Chart How is oil rising despite a rally in the US dollar? The greenback gained from a....This may well be related to the latest selloff in the Chinese yuan, which is....Could Beijing be resorting to currency devaluation in the US-China trade war?....When China's currency tumbles, we tend to see a selloff in in global....Oil was the exception due to US State Dept story mentioned below...The selloff in equities dragged down bond yields, consquently lifting the yen...The oil headline driver on the day was a report, citing a State Dept...official that said the US wants allies to cut Iran oil exports to US allies to....That's a much harsher and firmer policy than under previous sanctions....In turn, WTI crude jumped nearly 4% to $70...70, the highest in a month...The rise in oil had little effect on USD/CAD because of apprehension about Poloz&....The pair chopped around 1...3300...The Australian dollar fell down to 0...7360 as copper prices slipped again...The CADJPY trade in the  Premium Insights remains in the green, as a new..
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