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Results: 531 to 540 of 1,000
Results: 531 to 540 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: US Dollar Rebounds. What Next?
by Adam Button | Jan 29, 2018 23:38
Another bounce in the dollar to fade? The greenback was the top performer....Japanese employment and retail sales are due up next...بين الفيكس و المؤشرات (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....US Treasury yields continued the march higher with 10-years hitting 2...70% on Monday and that was part of the reason for a bounce in the dollar...Another factor was US personal income beating expectations a +0...4% m/m compared to +0...3% expected...Spending was slightly lower than expectations but the prior revised....The Atlanta Fed pegged its first tracking estimate at Q1 GDP at 4...2%....While there is solid optimism about the US dollar, there are higher hopes....All the money that flowed into the US dollar during the European crisis is now....Emerging market and commodity investors are also shifting towards more....So long as risk appetite remains robust – and there is no reason to think....Even on Monday, the strong start for the dollar that pushed the euro down to 1...2337 faded later and it bounced to 1...2375...In terms of USD/JPY, the pair battled to get above 109...00 and was helped by talk of a BOJ/MOF meeting but it's too soon to talk....As for what's next, Japanese employment is due at 2330 GMT but the....The consensus is for a 0...4% m/m decline...It's unlikely to be a market mover but if Japan can put together a long..
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Intraday Market Thought: The 3% Quandary
by Adam Button | Feb 21, 2018 23:24
The FOMC Minutes led to a whipsaw in US dollar trading Wednesday and exposed a....The US dollar was the top performer once again while the Australian dollar....China returns from holiday in the day ahead...9 Premium trades are currently in progress, 2 of which in indices...The FOMC Minutes didn't offer much in the way of surprises but ....The US dollar fell 30-40 pips across the board on the headlines only to make a....In the lead-up to the release, there was fear about an especially hawkish set of....Instead, there was the predictable optimism about growth along with hints....At first, it seemed fears in the market were soothed...The US dollar dropped and stock markets rallied...But bond traders pushed yields further in a sign of jitters about four rate....A short time late, stocks joined bonds lower and USD rallied...The looming level is 3% in the 10-year note...It rose 6 bps to 2...95% Wednesday – the highest since 2014...Along with the big figure, the 2014 high of 3...06% is a major level of resistance...At this point, other markets are beginning to get worried about the....We get the sense that many are heading to the sidelines to see how it will....Ultimately, 3% is just a number and it's not a magical line in the sand that&....But until then, expect further jitters to continue...If you're in London this week, you can attend Ashraf's full assessment....Looking ahead, the Asia-Pacific economic calendar is light but it includes the....That's likely to add a bit of volatility and certainly some flows...Further down the agenda, the Fed's Quarles speaks at 0515 GMT along with....All that should make for plenty of action.
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Intraday Market Thought: Signals Within the Wild Ride
by Adam Button | Mar 28, 2018 14:00
US dollar strength on Tuesday morphed into risk aversion...The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific calendar is light...A new JPY trade has been posted for Premium subscribers...End of month and end of quarter flows will likely enforce USD corrective....انتهاز الحركات التصحيحية (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Ashraf warned about yen strength late last week and that unfolded in the....It has been a harrowing time for intraday traders with some major swings....The confluence of trade jitters, tech/privacy worries and month-end came....The S&P 500 fell by as much as 61 points at the lows after gaining 20....USD/JPY was sucked lower down to 105...38, erasing what had been a strong start to the day for the dollar...But the overall USD corrective action has forced the pair towards 106...20s as indices attempt to get back in the green...The dangers of trading at month/quarter end are well known but the swings in the....Note the consistent pattern risk aversion in late Jan, Feb and now March....nbsp; For the S&P 500, it's critical that it stays above the 200-day....A worrisome signal emerges from bonds as 10-year yields fall below recent....77%....That could help to accelerate USD/JPY towards the targets that Ashraf has....For what's next, continue to watch for headlines on trade but note that....Moody's downgrade of Tesla's, Goldman Sachs' downgrade of Apple&..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Minutes & Geopolitics Balance out on USD
by Adam Button | Apr 11, 2018 19:28
USD struggles to hold on to gains sustained following the release of the....US-Russia relations hit hard by President Trump's statements on....CAD and JPY were the highest performers of the day ahead of the minutes....2% as expected...The premium short USDCAD trade was closed for 230-pip gain...Below is the week's Premium video...The minutes indicated: “A number of participants indicated that the....Yet, most Fed members saw wage gains as "moderate", while a strong....Aside from broad USD weakness, EURUSD remains boosted by ECB's Nowotny....Nowotny said the ECB will end asset buys by year-end then talked about raising....The market entirely expects an announcement to end QE this summer but....An ECB spokesman later announced that he was only speaking for himself...Novotny is an experienced member of the Governing Council so it's an odd....Today, EURUSD is up for the 4th straight day...nbsp;....In the bigger picture, risk appetite was buoyant after Xi's attempts to de-....That was later followed by a tweet from Trump thanking him for the progress...The change in tone sent the commodity currencies and equities solidly higher.
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Nudged By Nukes
by Adam Button | Apr 30, 2018 23:35
We warned earlier to watch the Iran nuclear situation closely, and it became....The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the New Zealand dollar....We take a look at May seasonals as the new month begins...A new Premium trade in a major index was posted earlier today...It is currently 150 pts in the green...Geopolitics is always a guessing game...The talk always exceeds the action but people and markets are fearful by nature...On Monday, Netanyahu revealed that Israeli intelligence uncovered a trove....Without getting into the details, there are two questions: 1) Will anyone attack....The first remains extremely unlikely at this point, despite some hawks in the....War is unpopular in the US and would have no support in Europe...On the second question, the market is leaning towards expecting sanctions,....Oil jumped more than $1 from the lows Monday on Netanyahu's speech...That might be the wrong takeaway...Instead, this could be the next wave of a coordinated US-Israel PR campaign....If so, it didn't appear very coordinated Monday...In comments after Netanyahu's speech, Trump said the same things he's....More likely, it was a solo attempt by Israel to influence leaders in the west....We will be watching Trump's twitter closely for clues...The calendar now turns to May for the forex market...Seasonal patterns performed well in April and some seemed to get a head....One is Australian and New Zealand dollar weakness...They were strong to start April but cratered late in the month...The seasonal picture remains dark with May as the worst month for AUD and third-....It shouldn't be a surprise that it's also a tough month for base metals...Global equity markets were strong in April, especially outside the United....The old adage about selling in May doesn't really apply...It's a weaker month than April, but by no means a poor month...It is, however, the weakest month on the calendar for the euro and with EUR/USD....20, it could get weak in a hurry.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD, Indices Firm in Light Day
by Adam Button | May 7, 2018 22:33
A slow start to the week from a data vaccum and UK holiday did not stop from....Friday's release of US non-farm payrolls threw a curveball at the market....The week's key events are US CPI and BoE inflation report on Thursday,....President Trump's tweet that hey may shed more clarity on the US future role....The US average hourly earnings component of non-farm payrolls has accounted for....1% compared to +0...2% expected...From there, the tide slowly turned...Part of that was likely the underlying momentum that's made the US dollar....But part of it was also unemployment falling to 3...9% from 4...1%....A three-handle on unemployment is something that's going to make the....The US dollar hit cycle highs Friday, sending EUR/USD and cable to lows...Some profit taking hit late in the day but the underlying demand for the dollar....Things we will be watching this week include the Iran nuclear deal, the....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +121K vs +131K prior...GBP +26K vs +37K prior...JPY -1K vs +1K prior...CAD -28K vs -28K prior...CHF -19K vs -10K prior...AUD -7K vs -3K prior...NZD +17K vs +24K prior....US dollar shorts have covered somewhat in the past two weeks but there is no....It will be a slow start to the week with the UK off for a holiday on Monday but..
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Intraday Market Thought: Trade War Tell
by Adam Button | Jun 26, 2018 11:27
Global equity indices attempt to recover from Monday's selloff but US index....A trade war wouldn't spill blood but it would certainly turn markets red and....The Premium Insights closed Friday's DAX short with a 290-pt gain on Monday....بين المؤشرات و الدولار (فيديو للمشتركين)....US equity indices fell by more than 2% on Monday after a pair of reports in the....That set a negative tone for the week but it was a slow burn in equity markets....That prompted the White House to send out two top deputies, Mnuchin and....Markets finally bounced when Navarro took the airwaves shortly before the....That also sparked a 50 pip rally in USD/JPY...For the moment, there is no sorting through the confusion although it's....At the same time, China's Xi reportedly told global CEOs on the....Actions remain more important than words -- Trump's stock market priorities....He measures himself on approval ratings and the DJIA...Navarro was on CNBC...The message here is that the White House may want to be tough on trade but the....Perhaps Trump thinks he can have it both ways but if push comes to shove, it....That might help to explain why the FX and bond markets were so sanguine even..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD up on CNY Rumblings
by Adam Button | Jun 27, 2018 11:41
How is oil rising despite a rally in the US dollar? The greenback gained from a....This may well be related to the latest selloff in the Chinese yuan, which is....Could Beijing be resorting to currency devaluation in the US-China trade war?....When China's currency tumbles, we tend to see a selloff in in global....Oil was the exception due to US State Dept story mentioned below...The selloff in equities dragged down bond yields, consquently lifting the yen...The oil headline driver on the day was a report, citing a State Dept...official that said the US wants allies to cut Iran oil exports to US allies to....That's a much harsher and firmer policy than under previous sanctions....In turn, WTI crude jumped nearly 4% to $70...70, the highest in a month...The rise in oil had little effect on USD/CAD because of apprehension about Poloz&....The pair chopped around 1...3300...The Australian dollar fell down to 0...7360 as copper prices slipped again...The CADJPY trade in the Premium Insights remains in the green, as a new..
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Intraday Market Thought: From Draghi's ECB to Trump's GDP
by Adam Button | Jul 27, 2018 11:46
A subtle change in Draghi's messaging sent the euro lower on....The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged,....An intriguing US Q2 GDP number is due up next (more on this below)....A new Premium trade has been issued alongside 4 technical reasons...The ECB had a chance to tweak its forward guidance in order to clear up....However later in the press conference, he said that officials were comfortable....That endorsement diminished that chance of an earlier hike an contributed to the....1622 from 1...1715...Looking ahead, Friday's first look at US Q2 GDP is especially interesting...The consensus is 4...2% but a report earlier in the week from Charlie Gasparino, who is a reliable....8%....On Thursday, Trump also said that GDP would be 'terrific'....If we ignore the President's talk, however, the final indicators were mixed...Wholesale inventories and trade balance for June were a touch soft while the....On net that roughly balances out and estimates range from 3...0%-5...0%....In terms of positioning, it's likely that some specs bought the rumor of a....Equally important is the composition of GDP...Inventory building and trade will add about 2 percentage points to GDP in this....Inventories & Soybeans....Ashraf reminds us that in order to assess the true strength of US GDP....e...how much of the GDP growth was driven by inventory surplus, which is not....For this, we must watch the "final sales" figure...Yet, even if final sales are high enough (close to GDP), traders are being....FInally, all eyes will be on the 3% barrier in US 10 year yields.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD: Data vs Trade
by Adam Button | Aug 6, 2018 15:48
The US dollar continued to rally on trade tensions, shrugging somewhat....The Fed wants to see wage inflation but it wasn't as strong as hoped in....US core PCE, ISM and NFP have all disappointed but it so far appears as a....CFTC positioning data showed that the US dollar remains the heavy favorite...The GBPUSD long trade was stopped out as sterling was damaged by renewed fears....Non-farm payrolls were a shade disappointing and USD/JPY fell to 111...20 from 111...60 in the aftermath...The headline was 157K compared to 193K but an upward revision balanced out the....Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0...3% to match the consensus but the prior was revised 0...1 pp lower...The refrain that 'inflation is coming' is the 'sky is falling&....The Fed may just keep pushing it further down the road as it hikes rates, but....In other moves, Canadian trade data showed a jump in exports despite steel....The tariffs themselves hit steel exports by 37% but the overall trade balance....30...Energy was part of the story but exports may have also been accelerated on....Loonie traders get to see CAD jobs data this Friday...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +23K vs +29K prior...GBP -47K vs -47K prior...JPY -68K vs -74K prior...CHF -44K vs -46K prior...CAD -32K vs -44K prior...AUD -51K vs -45K prior....Australian dollar shorts are now at their most extreme since late 2015...We can scarcely remember a time when there was such worsening AUD enthusiasm,....A thing we talk about often is watching the places where few people are paying....The decline in the Chinese currency and the Shanghai Composite index is a good..
