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Results: 531 to 540 of 1,000
Results: 531 to 540 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Minutes & Geopolitics Balance out on USD
by Adam Button | Apr 11, 2018 19:28
USD struggles to hold on to gains sustained following the release of the....US-Russia relations hit hard by President Trump's statements on....CAD and JPY were the highest performers of the day ahead of the minutes....2% as expected...The premium short USDCAD trade was closed for 230-pip gain...Below is the week's Premium video...The minutes indicated: “A number of participants indicated that the....Yet, most Fed members saw wage gains as "moderate", while a strong....Aside from broad USD weakness, EURUSD remains boosted by ECB's Nowotny....Nowotny said the ECB will end asset buys by year-end then talked about raising....The market entirely expects an announcement to end QE this summer but....An ECB spokesman later announced that he was only speaking for himself...Novotny is an experienced member of the Governing Council so it's an odd....Today, EURUSD is up for the 4th straight day...nbsp;....In the bigger picture, risk appetite was buoyant after Xi's attempts to de-....That was later followed by a tweet from Trump thanking him for the progress...The change in tone sent the commodity currencies and equities solidly higher.
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Nudged By Nukes
by Adam Button | Apr 30, 2018 23:35
We warned earlier to watch the Iran nuclear situation closely, and it became....The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the New Zealand dollar....We take a look at May seasonals as the new month begins...A new Premium trade in a major index was posted earlier today...It is currently 150 pts in the green...Geopolitics is always a guessing game...The talk always exceeds the action but people and markets are fearful by nature...On Monday, Netanyahu revealed that Israeli intelligence uncovered a trove....Without getting into the details, there are two questions: 1) Will anyone attack....The first remains extremely unlikely at this point, despite some hawks in the....War is unpopular in the US and would have no support in Europe...On the second question, the market is leaning towards expecting sanctions,....Oil jumped more than $1 from the lows Monday on Netanyahu's speech...That might be the wrong takeaway...Instead, this could be the next wave of a coordinated US-Israel PR campaign....If so, it didn't appear very coordinated Monday...In comments after Netanyahu's speech, Trump said the same things he's....More likely, it was a solo attempt by Israel to influence leaders in the west....We will be watching Trump's twitter closely for clues...The calendar now turns to May for the forex market...Seasonal patterns performed well in April and some seemed to get a head....One is Australian and New Zealand dollar weakness...They were strong to start April but cratered late in the month...The seasonal picture remains dark with May as the worst month for AUD and third-....It shouldn't be a surprise that it's also a tough month for base metals...Global equity markets were strong in April, especially outside the United....The old adage about selling in May doesn't really apply...It's a weaker month than April, but by no means a poor month...It is, however, the weakest month on the calendar for the euro and with EUR/USD....20, it could get weak in a hurry.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD, Indices Firm in Light Day
by Adam Button | May 7, 2018 22:33
A slow start to the week from a data vaccum and UK holiday did not stop from....Friday's release of US non-farm payrolls threw a curveball at the market....The week's key events are US CPI and BoE inflation report on Thursday,....President Trump's tweet that hey may shed more clarity on the US future role....The US average hourly earnings component of non-farm payrolls has accounted for....1% compared to +0...2% expected...From there, the tide slowly turned...Part of that was likely the underlying momentum that's made the US dollar....But part of it was also unemployment falling to 3...9% from 4...1%....A three-handle on unemployment is something that's going to make the....The US dollar hit cycle highs Friday, sending EUR/USD and cable to lows...Some profit taking hit late in the day but the underlying demand for the dollar....Things we will be watching this week include the Iran nuclear deal, the....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +121K vs +131K prior...GBP +26K vs +37K prior...JPY -1K vs +1K prior...CAD -28K vs -28K prior...CHF -19K vs -10K prior...AUD -7K vs -3K prior...NZD +17K vs +24K prior....US dollar shorts have covered somewhat in the past two weeks but there is no....It will be a slow start to the week with the UK off for a holiday on Monday but..
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Intraday Market Thought: Trade War Tell
by Adam Button | Jun 26, 2018 11:27
Global equity indices attempt to recover from Monday's selloff but US index....A trade war wouldn't spill blood but it would certainly turn markets red and....The Premium Insights closed Friday's DAX short with a 290-pt gain on Monday....بين المؤشرات و الدولار (فيديو للمشتركين)....US equity indices fell by more than 2% on Monday after a pair of reports in the....That set a negative tone for the week but it was a slow burn in equity markets....That prompted the White House to send out two top deputies, Mnuchin and....Markets finally bounced when Navarro took the airwaves shortly before the....That also sparked a 50 pip rally in USD/JPY...For the moment, there is no sorting through the confusion although it's....At the same time, China's Xi reportedly told global CEOs on the....Actions remain more important than words -- Trump's stock market priorities....He measures himself on approval ratings and the DJIA...Navarro was on CNBC...The message here is that the White House may want to be tough on trade but the....Perhaps Trump thinks he can have it both ways but if push comes to shove, it....That might help to explain why the FX and bond markets were so sanguine even..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD up on CNY Rumblings
by Adam Button | Jun 27, 2018 11:41
How is oil rising despite a rally in the US dollar? The greenback gained from a....This may well be related to the latest selloff in the Chinese yuan, which is....Could Beijing be resorting to currency devaluation in the US-China trade war?....When China's currency tumbles, we tend to see a selloff in in global....Oil was the exception due to US State Dept story mentioned below...The selloff in equities dragged down bond yields, consquently lifting the yen...The oil headline driver on the day was a report, citing a State Dept...official that said the US wants allies to cut Iran oil exports to US allies to....That's a much harsher and firmer policy than under previous sanctions....In turn, WTI crude jumped nearly 4% to $70...70, the highest in a month...The rise in oil had little effect on USD/CAD because of apprehension about Poloz&....The pair chopped around 1...3300...The Australian dollar fell down to 0...7360 as copper prices slipped again...The CADJPY trade in the Premium Insights remains in the green, as a new..
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Intraday Market Thought: From Draghi's ECB to Trump's GDP
by Adam Button | Jul 27, 2018 11:46
A subtle change in Draghi's messaging sent the euro lower on....The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged,....An intriguing US Q2 GDP number is due up next (more on this below)....A new Premium trade has been issued alongside 4 technical reasons...The ECB had a chance to tweak its forward guidance in order to clear up....However later in the press conference, he said that officials were comfortable....That endorsement diminished that chance of an earlier hike an contributed to the....1622 from 1...1715...Looking ahead, Friday's first look at US Q2 GDP is especially interesting...The consensus is 4...2% but a report earlier in the week from Charlie Gasparino, who is a reliable....8%....On Thursday, Trump also said that GDP would be 'terrific'....If we ignore the President's talk, however, the final indicators were mixed...Wholesale inventories and trade balance for June were a touch soft while the....On net that roughly balances out and estimates range from 3...0%-5...0%....In terms of positioning, it's likely that some specs bought the rumor of a....Equally important is the composition of GDP...Inventory building and trade will add about 2 percentage points to GDP in this....Inventories & Soybeans....Ashraf reminds us that in order to assess the true strength of US GDP....e...how much of the GDP growth was driven by inventory surplus, which is not....For this, we must watch the "final sales" figure...Yet, even if final sales are high enough (close to GDP), traders are being....FInally, all eyes will be on the 3% barrier in US 10 year yields.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD: Data vs Trade
by Adam Button | Aug 6, 2018 15:48
The US dollar continued to rally on trade tensions, shrugging somewhat....The Fed wants to see wage inflation but it wasn't as strong as hoped in....US core PCE, ISM and NFP have all disappointed but it so far appears as a....CFTC positioning data showed that the US dollar remains the heavy favorite...The GBPUSD long trade was stopped out as sterling was damaged by renewed fears....Non-farm payrolls were a shade disappointing and USD/JPY fell to 111...20 from 111...60 in the aftermath...The headline was 157K compared to 193K but an upward revision balanced out the....Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0...3% to match the consensus but the prior was revised 0...1 pp lower...The refrain that 'inflation is coming' is the 'sky is falling&....The Fed may just keep pushing it further down the road as it hikes rates, but....In other moves, Canadian trade data showed a jump in exports despite steel....The tariffs themselves hit steel exports by 37% but the overall trade balance....30...Energy was part of the story but exports may have also been accelerated on....Loonie traders get to see CAD jobs data this Friday...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +23K vs +29K prior...GBP -47K vs -47K prior...JPY -68K vs -74K prior...CHF -44K vs -46K prior...CAD -32K vs -44K prior...AUD -51K vs -45K prior....Australian dollar shorts are now at their most extreme since late 2015...We can scarcely remember a time when there was such worsening AUD enthusiasm,....A thing we talk about often is watching the places where few people are paying....The decline in the Chinese currency and the Shanghai Composite index is a good..
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Intraday Market Thought: US Stocks Hit Record but Turmoil Swirls
by Adam Button | Aug 21, 2018 23:50
The S&P 500 topped the January record briefly on Tuesday but trade and....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...Australia is in focus later with construction work and a speech from....The Dow30 short was stopped out while the USDJPY short was closed at a gain...This week's Premium video below focuses on whether EURUSD will hit $1...12 or the road to $1...20 remains intact...Risk assets climbed early in the day on a likely delay in US auto tariffs....The market interpreted that as a sign they could be shelved altogether as the....In addition, Brexit negotiators Raab and Barnier held a joint press conference....That helped to spur GBP and EUR buying with both climbing near a full cent....Beneath the surface there are worries...The S&P 500 pared most of its gains late as did yen crosses...On China, Trump downplayed this week's lower level meetings with Beijing,....Separate WSJ and Axios reports highlighted Trump's zest for a fight....quot;He's resolved to be the guy that changes the world trading system...He's willing to take some pain to do it,” an unnamed member of....US markets have yet to reflect that possible pain while Chinese markets....US futures did slide late on some major legal drama as former Trump campaign....The double-dose of legal jeopardy raises a major risk that the President could....In the past, note that all his meltdowns have proven to be buying opportunities....That said, if he takes his wrath out on China via a trade war, that's a....Trump will be speaking at a rally in Virginia in Asia-Pacific trading...Also during that session, New Zealand reports on Q2 retail sales while....Both a likely to be market movers and so is a speech from Debelle at 0310 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD & DAX: Worse of FX & Indices
by Adam Button | Sep 4, 2018 16:16
As the last of summer Bank holidays is behind us, market liquidity attempts to....On Monday, renewed worries about NAFTA and Brexit weighed on markets and the....The US ISM manufacturing index powered to a broad-based 14-year high,....nbsp; The DAX short in the Premium Insights hit its final target at 12260....Will discuss in this evening's video whether more declines are in store or....The ebb and flow of markets at the moment is largely driven by politics...Friday was a fake deadline to compete a NAFTA agreement...After negotiators reached a deadlock, the necessary Congressional notice was....That was followed by a series of anti-Canada tweets from Trump on the weekend....USD/CAD climbed Friday and on Monday, which was a holiday in Canada and the US...On Tuesday, the pair hit 1...3208, matching the July 20 high...Cable, meanwhile, is increasingly at the mercy of comments from Barnier, Raab or....Last week, Barnier's comment about a special deal for Britain sent cable to....The other spot to watch is China...Thursday is the deadline for comments on Trump's proposal to place tariffs....A report last week said he intends to announce action immediately after the....The market has shrugged its shoulders at the threats so far but it's....Aussie briefly recovered on a brighter than expected outlook from the RBA....Westpac announced higher mortgage rates last week and that sent AUD reeling....Recent news coverage is also littered with worries about interest-only loans....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -7K vs -5K prior...GBP -77K vs -72K prior...JPY -46K vs -47K prior...CHF -45K vs -47K prior...CAD -25K vs -27K prior...AUD -45K vs -50K prior...NZD -24K vs -25K..
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Intraday Market Thought: Growth Trumps Trade
by Adam Button | Sep 19, 2018 14:57
The market's reaction to US tariffs and China's retaliation on Tuesday....The Australian dollar was (and remains today) the top performer while JPY and....The market reaction is a combination of eleveated traders' expectations....The macro data of the day is the upside surprise in UK inflation, particularly....1%....Global equity markets are again rallying in concert...A positive reaction to tariffs and a trade war between the two largest....We often talk about news being the best measure of a market and if markets can&....The nature of all news is that it's worrisome...If you own a stock, a bond or a currency you have to be on guard against the....What we don't talk about enough is that things are getting better...Even recent comments from ECB and BOE were upbeat despite looming problems to....The yield curve is worrisome but it hasn't inverted yet and even if it does,....nbsp; Economic data in most of the world is solid with FX traders focusing on....This may be another explanation to the USD's retreat...Another sign is the relentless march of money into new ideas...Last year it was cryptocurrencies and at the moment it's marijuana stocks...The animal spirits are alive and it will eventually end in pain but in the words....rdquo;..
