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Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Extension, more Drama Follows

by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2019 22:20
Britain's Parliament authorized Theresa May to ask for an extension of....The Swiss franc was the top performer but the pound is recovering in thin pre-....Friday's trade will wrap up with an important look at US industrial....GBP Premium trade remains well in the green with 3 other trades...فيديو المشتركين - ألإدارة بين الإسترليني و المؤشرين...Theresa May won a pair of important votes on Thursday including a narrow 314-....The pound lost most of its gains after the vote to authorize an Article 50....The reason is that there are rumblings the EU could grandstand before pushing....It would require the approval of all 27 EU members and – as we warned....Accept or Wait One Year....And so as Theresa May's deal heads for a 3rd vote next week, the inevitable....That also means the UK pariticipates in this year's European Elections...At the same time, there are signs that May has a plan to get her deal approved...Negotiations are underway with the DUP to support the Irish border backstop and....The combination of the ERG and DUP could swing as many as 60 of the 75 votes....If May can get that close she could lean on Labour members or soft Brexit....It may take two votes rather than one but it's possible and it would be a....We will continue to watch for signs in the day ahead and through the weekend....4% from -0...6%..
Intraday Market Thought: Trump Tweets Hold Intermarket Levels

by Adam Button | May 14, 2019 12:38
Pres Trump has just tweeted moments ago "when the time is right we will....Markets up off their lows, with SPY futures +16, DOW futures +127 pts and....66...UK employment rate fell to 3...8% from 3...9%, earnings growth (pay) dropped to 3...2% y/y from 3...5%....German ZEW business sentiment was mixed...A new index trade has been issued with 4 supporting charts for Premium....The full details are covered in the Premium video below...Every negotiation involves some element of bluff...There's always the risk the other party will walk away from the table and....In a political deal, the domestic side is always another voice in discussions....What's clear is that a US-China deal is in the best interest of both....Although mutual benefit was almost always the case in the past, history is....So here we are with the US scheduled to hit China with harsher tariffs and....China has announced retaliation and no talks are scheduled on either side...The market wasted no time in reacting to the 2...4% fall in the S&P500, more than doubling the cumulative loss over the....The Shanghai Composite is down 11...5% in less than two weeks...It could all change in an instant...The sides aren't terribly far apart...That makes trading in this environment deeply risky...If nothing changes, the latest trends will continue but the further markets....Three Realities....Three facts that are troubling in the short term: i) Despite Trump's....Mnuchin said a meeting is likely but there's not a timetable yet...ii) Trump stating he will meet Xi at the G20 is positive but the summit isn'....Trade will continue to dominate markets this week but economic data is worth....We continue to watch 11820 on the DAX, 25380/400 on the DOW30, but the more..
Intraday Market Thought: Risk Can't Stay on, Bass Gives up

by Adam Button | May 15, 2019 13:09
Risk trades pare yesterday's gains, which were caused by Trump downplaying....But follow-up is lacking as markets return to macro factors...nbsp; The yen and franc are the only gainers vs USD since the start of the....US retail sales (exp 0...2%) and Canada CPI (exp 2...0%) due at 13:30 London and US industrial production (exp unchanged)....More on what Kyle Bass did below...تعمق في الصفقات (فيديو المشتركين)....Trump's attempt at defusing tensions helped global equities rallya across....rdquo; A spokesman for the US Treasury Secretary also said he would head to....The commentary lifted USD/JPY by 30 pips and led to a 22 point rebound in the S&....But USDJPY is back down to 109...20s on decline in risk appetite...Beneath the surface the market is concerned about increasingly hawkish and....That could be a sign of the government preparing the domestic audience for a....The talk from Mnuchin is also double-edged because it appears he may not....Kyle Bass Throws Towel....One of the most notable stories of the week is of renowned hedge fund China....The bet, started in July 2015 gave luster to Bass' star as it occured....In March of this year, Bass posited China would eventually erode its $3...0 trillion in FX reserves in trying to shore up the yuan...Another well known hedge fund China bear is Mark Hart, who abandoned his his 8-....The day ahead will be an opportunity to refocus on the US economy and the....April retail sales are expected to rise 0...2%, or 0...7% excluding autos...Watch the control group closely; it's forecast to rise 0...3%....A strong reading may strengthen Trump's belief that tariffs are working.
Article: After Theresa May

by Ashraf Laidi | May 24, 2019 16:47
Now that PM Theresa May has announced stepping down from the Conservative....We know former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is considered as the favourite....We also know too well he's a staunch Brexit supporter...But I do not foresee him as the next Prime Minister...So what's this chart telling us below?....If the inverted head-&-shoulders formation above is correct, then it....2600...Perhaps an intraweek drop to 1...2580 or 1...2550 but not a Friday close under 1...2600...I continue to expect 1...3700 or 1...3800 before end of Q3...This includes a move of +400 pips in a single trading week within the next 3....After a series of winning trades in cable for our Premium subscribers, we....2630 in our cable longs...Good news that quite a few clients (I call them clients not subscribers....More importantly, keeping a clear head on the price, chart & fundamental....For the record: We're not basing our bullish GBPUSD call solely on the....We've mentioned a few times in the Premium videos other factors such as USD....Fundamentally, a rally in cable could occur via several routes: Due to Boris....An alternative Johnson scenario (GBP-positive) would be for him to secure a....Any path towards that would be a positive shock to the pound...nbsp; There are various other options, not all of which are related to the....But the 3 major outcomes remain well on the table: Brexit with a deal, Brexit....And keep an eye on Sunday's EU elections results...A strong showing for the LibDems or a surprise +20% would be favourable for....Stay tuned and don't forget the weekly close.
Intraday Market Thought: G20 Battle Lines Leak, Data First

by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2019 13:08
Mixed and contrasting leaks regarding Saturday's US-China meeting at the....The Australian dollar was the top performer Thursday while the pound....UK Q1 GDP was unrevised at 1...8% and Ezone flash CPI came in at 1...2%, while core rose to 1...1% from 0...8%....Canadian GDP and the US PCE report will be market movers ahead of month-end...A new trade was issued with 2 charts & 3 key notes, updating last week'....Key data coming up from the US and Canada (see below)....تحديد الصفقة الثانية - فيديو المشتركين...The South China Morning Post reported Thursday that a precondition of Xi....That would undoubtedly be a positive outcome at this stage and might lead to....At the same time, it would cut the Fed's appetite for easing so the optimism....Such a scenario would lead to a rally in the dollar and gold may be vulnerable...A separate report from the WSJ said another precondition was removing a....That would be a step back for Trump and something tougher to agree with...The same report also said Beijing wants the US to lift all punitive tariffs and....The reports were accompanied by the usual denials, along with others that....The most-likely outcome is a neutral-positive because these matters are....Ashraf's Tweet on indices here...Looking ahead, North American traders will have plenty to digest on Friday....The US PCE report is the penultimate look at the Fed's preferred....San Francisco Fed President Daly highlighted inflation as a key concern....The deflator and core measures are both expected at 1...5% y/y and a 0...2-0...3 pp miss to the upside would raise instant questions about Fed cuts...Also released at 1230 GMT (13:30 London) will be the Canadian April GDP report...It's expected at 0...2% but risks are to the upside after a strong wholesale trade report earlier in....Another strong number would solidify the CAD bid and the belief that the BOC won&....Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada and that Friday is the final trading day....Aside from G20 positioning, fund rebalancing flows will be in play...The outsized rally in US stocks means the dollar is most likely to come under..
Intraday Market Thought: Iran Worries and US-China Progress

by Adam Button | Jul 22, 2019 15:08
All eyes are on tomorrow's announcement of the new British PM...See Ashraf's tweet below...Two headlines from late on Friday set the stage for oil market jitters and....DOW30 and SPX continue to test and fail 27300 and 2993 respectively...CFTC positioning data continued to show a sharp turn on CAD...Iran seized a UK-flagged tanker on Friday in an escalation of a dispute....Crude climbed nearly $1 on the report and earlier scattered reports that a....The move shows some brinksmanship from Iran as it fights to get oil to market....At almost the same time, reports on Friday suggested that the US and China....Reports last week suggested both sides were reluctant to follow-through on G20....Now that the 2-week silence period from Fed speakers is active (no speeches....This week begins with the Richmond Fed and existing home sales for June...The manufacturing numbers have been tough to pin down lately...Most of the regional numbers plunged in June but the already-released Philly Fed....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -31K vs -36K prior...GBP -76K vs -73K prior...JPY -11K vs -4K prior...CHF -12K vs -10K prior...CAD +21K vs +9K prior...AUD -53K vs -54K prior...NZD -17K vs -22K prior....CAD longs are now the most-stretched since March 2018 in what's been a....The numbers track the period before Friday's soft retail sales report...Sales ex-autos were down 0...3% compared to +0...3% expected but an unusual 2...0% decline in supermarket sales skewed the numbers lower...That's a sector that's rarely economically sensitive and that was the..
Intraday Market Thought: Overlooked Hints from Powell

by Adam Button | Sep 9, 2019 13:20
Powell didn't grab any headlines in Zurich but his Friday speech had more....GBP is the best performer of the day and the month amid hopes of closing the gap....Parliament will be suspended today after one more vote on holding elections is....FX traders will shift attention to the ECB later this week on whether a new....CFTC positioning showed a spike in favour of GBP longs...US indices are less than 1% away from their record high and the VIX broke....0...The Premium index trade is currently more than 500 pts in the green, while....The headlines around Powell's appearance in Switzerland centered on....Neither statement is news as both stray into the obvious...What was important was a change of tone on inflation...Powell talked about how the Fed's strategy is to avoid inflation....5-2...0% zone...That's a strong hint on plans to cut rates, and on how they will be....Further he spoke about the fading relationship between economic tightness....On the weekend, China's August trade surplus narrowed on an unexpected drop....The surplus narrowed to $34...8B, about $10B smaller than expected...That came after exports fell 1...0% compared to a 2...2% rise expected...Imports fell 5...6%....More than the narrowing of the surplus, the story here is overall slowing trade....But markets are looking ahead, hoping that last week's PBOC cut to the RRR....Will markets sustain their optimism ahead of what could be another....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -49K vs -39K prior...GBP -85K vs -89K prior...JPY +28K vs +34K prior...CHF -6K vs -4K prior...CAD +5K vs +11K prior...AUD -59K vs -61K prior...NZD -31K vs -26K..
Intraday Market Thought: ECB's Next Challenge

by Adam Button | Sep 10, 2019 11:40
Thursday's ECB meeting is perhaps the least straight-forward central bank....All currencies are currently weaker vs USD except for CHF...The rebound in risk trades extends to European indices as US equities edge....UK jobs creation slowed in August but wages growth of 4% continue to outpace 2%....تحديث النفط، الين و الإسترليني - فيديو المشتركين...Markets featured light USD selling on Monday as Treasury yields ticked higher...The pound benefited from a strong GDP report in a rally to a five-week high...UK parliament will now take a break until mid-October as Johnson failed to....He will attempt to obtain a deal from the EU, which remains far-fetched...Upbeat economic news continued Tuesday as wage growth grew at a faster pace....UK politics will continue to weigh heavily on FX but the short-term....The latest hints from the ECB suggest rate cuts and perhaps no further QE...The aim may be to lower short-term rates while keeping the longer end higher in....If so, the result could be to sell the euro...At the same time, the market has been conditioned to expect a 'surprise&....Forecasts for a rate cut range from -10 to -25 bps...One scenario is for the ECB to disappoint, raising questions about the....Part of the strategy is surely to nudge governments into expanding fiscal policy....There is an increasing idea in markets that a harder line will be a hallmark of....That message may already be filtering through as the euro climbed Monday on a....Expect those types of reports to increasingly steal the FX spotlight away..
Intraday Market Thought: US Stocks Highs, UK December Elections

by Adam Button | Oct 29, 2019 14:33
The S&P 500 hit a record on Monday as commentary from executives so far....The pound regains the 1...2890s after UK Labour leader Corbyn announced his party's backing for a....One of the final inputs for the Fed is release of the October consumer....3 to 125...9...Pending home sales edged up 1...5% from 1...4%, while house price data was mixed...The mystery charts below will be discussed in the Premium Video later....Towards UK December Elections....Labour Leader Corbyn finally agreed to holding a general election in December....Now we move into several votes amending elections laws...The rationale explaining GBP's moves nearing elections has been discussed in....Stocks are in the spotlight after Monday's record high in the S&P 500,....The jump came on the anniversary of Black Monday exactly 90 years ago –....There are historical parallels with the trade war and rising protectionism but....Trump has halted his offensive against China and a Phase One deal is now likely....Given the proximity to the 2020 election, the likelihood is that we get an....Central banks have also learned lessons with a wave of global easing....Yet there are similarities as well...The global trend of voters shifting to the fringes is well-underway...In a state election in Germany on the weekend, Merkel's CDU finished in....Huge protests have erupted in Chile, Lebanon and Hong Kong...Westminster is so dysfunctional that an election is held up on a three-day....The break in stocks signals some resilience in the economy...Commentary from CEOs outside of the hard-hit automotive industry talk about....Looking ahead, Wednesday's looming FOMC decision will probably keep a cap....The market is pricing in a 92% chance of a cut but the odds of another move in..
Intraday Market Thought: A Powell Cut then what?

by Adam Button | Oct 30, 2019 13:00
A third consecutive cut from the Federal Reserve is imminent this evening, but....Due to the temporary time difference, the Fed decision is at 18:00 London, 19:....All currencies are up against the US dollar, led by CHF and GBP, with the JPY....US advanced Q3 GDP grew 1...9%, beating the exp 1...6%, but still below Q2's 2...0%....US October ADP report on private sector jobs showed a 125K rise vs the exp 110K....USD ignored both reports...The Sept figure was revised down to 93K from 135K...nbsp; The Pre-Fed English Premium Video is found below...Fed day is finally here and along with month-end it will surely unleash some....The market is pricing a 94% chance of a cut and it would be the biggest monetary....The intrigue lies beyond Wednesday...The market is currently pricing in a 27% chance of a cut in December...That was above the 40% midway through the month and near 50% at times in....At this point, a Phase One deal and an extended ceasefire are solidly priced....At the same time, the Fed is loathe to remove optionality and will preserve the....The goal of post-meeting communication will likely be to keep December cut....In theory that should mean minor tweaks in communication...The main risk Wednesday is a communication error...The most-recent Fed minutes indicated a growing push to communicate to markets....If Powell strikes the wrong tone in that signaling and dials back expectations....A similar message may also arise in the number of dissents or overly-optimistic....Can Equity Indices Rally Further?....Yes, sure...Powell could over-emphasize low inflation and economic risks; talking....The market could take that as a signal about more cuts, which would weaken the....The best case scenario for stocks and worst one for JPY would be for Powell to....Ultimately, Powell has gained some experience in his role and should have a....With regards to today's Q3 GDP release, it's far too early to get....The market is also jittery about a soft October jobs report because of the GM....The strike was not reflected in the ADP.