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Results: 631 to 640 of 1,000
Results: 631 to 640 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Nears Tipping Point
by Adam Button | Apr 3, 2019 13:40
Crude oil is flirting with the 200-day moving average as OPEC tightens the....The US ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index are both due up....All currencies are up against the US dollar except for the yen...AUD leads the way...nbsp; Our long US crude oil Premium trade entered at 51-54 remains in....ماذا بعد جني الأرباح؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....Year-to-date, US crude oil is the 2nd highest performing commodity up 38%....Crude is now flirting with several key technical levels that will be pivotal in....The main one is the 200-day moving average...It was broken in WTI on Tuesday but sits just above the Brent high of $69...57...nbsp; Next is psychological resistance at $70...00 and just behind that is the Aug 2018 low (now resistance) at $70...30...If those break, watch the 61...8% retracement of the Q4 plunge at $72...68...It's increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia is determined to tighten global....They've nearly halted exports to the US and OPEC is pumping at four-year....Saudi officials were frustrated in September when the US granted sanctions....Investment in oil is low this year and speculators remain deeply skeptical of....Even with the jump so far this year, there is little enthusiasm in the market...A rise to Brent at $70 will likely trigger some producers to hedge but that....Another spot we have been watching closely is Bitcoin...Ashraf has been touting longs for weeks (see below) and the 15% rally added to....What's unclear is what was behind the rip in cryptocurrencies...There has been non-stop speculation but the only coherent thing we've seen....Looking ahead, the ISM non-manufacturing index is a key report to watch in the....The US economy has sent out confusing signals including on Tuesday when core....Also note that US drugstore giant Walgreens reported same-store sales down....8% y/y in Q1 as earnings get underway...The consensus for ISM is a dip to 58...0 from 59...7...The ADP employment report is expected at 175K from 183K.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Steadies, Earnings Keep on Teching
by Adam Button | Apr 25, 2019 18:58
US corporate results continued to beat estimates for a range of industries with....Amazon beat earnings estimates, while JPY and gold were the only gainers vs....US durable goods orders beat estimates but US jobless claims jumped 37K, the....Today's Premium trade is currently 150 pts in the green...فيديو المشتركين يفحص صفقة اليوم) إغتنام التذبذب المستقر...Wednesday's 40-pip fall in the Canadian dollar probably isn't a....The loonie was higher against the euro, aussie and kiwi and a mid-performer....The CAD lows of the day came immediately after the statement as the modest....GDP estimates for this year were also cut to 1...2% from 1...7%....Poloz, however, offered his usual positive spin in the press conference....He highlighted risks on both sides of the forecast and skepticism about some....6 out of 10 During the Holiday....As Japan starts its 2-week holiday known as the Golden Holiday -- the period....e...USDJPY fell during this period in 6 out of the last 10 years...Note how USDJPY hardly moved for 7 days since Apr 15 before spiking to 112...40 on Wednesday & dropping to 111...38 on Thursday and stabilizing near 111...60s...The Premium USDJPY trade remains open...The bigger move in FX remains that of the US dollar...Much of is via the tumbling euro after softer German and French economic....The dollar didn't get any help from Treasuries, with yields across the curve....Cable struggles around 1...29, but key support remains at 1...2780.
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Intraday Market Thought: Lame Duck May?
by Adam Button | May 17, 2019 11:56
UK Labour leader Corbyn has just announced the breakdown of Brexit talks....May blamed it on divisions in the Labour Party...This sets set the stage for her departure, whether or not a Brexit....But what about the indicative votes? (see below)....Could this eventually set the stage for a rebound in the pound as it fell once....All currencies are down against the USD with the exception of the yen as risk....Monday's long DOW30 Premium trade was closed yesterday at 25870 for 450-pt....The other index trade remains open...The final act of Theresa May's leadership of the UK will take place in....She had previously pledged to leave after a deal on a meaningful vote but....According to 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady, May will leave regardless....May is attempting to introduce indicative votes in order to not only....More on this next week...GBP weakness is certainly UK-specific, but it is also exacerbated by USD....It appears to be a lost cause with Labour and the ERG already lining up....Labour is even reluctant to engage in futher deal talks with May because they....That leaves little hope of any political tailwinds until May officially quits...Pound vs Volatility....The turmoil and uncertainty has sent cable lower in eight of the past nine....At this point the market will grab onto any positive signs or developments but a....The better hope for a near-term rebound may be better economic data...Note in the above chart how sterling implied volatility has remained....Does this imply the lack of surprise element? Will volatility pick up when....2650/70 on a closing basis before a sharp move higher...On that front, there were positive signs Thursday in North America...US housing starts and the Phily Fed beat estimates, leading to a rebound in USD/....Canadian ADP employment data was also extremely strong in what should be....US-China Trade talks remain the dominant story in the backdrop and markets were....China struck a defiant tone saying it will never make concessions in important....Reports also said that the US is asking the EU and Japan for auto quotas that..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields Squeeze Dollar Bulls
by Adam Button | Jun 4, 2019 2:50
The tumble in Treasury yields continued on Monday and began to take a toll on....The greenback's tumble is also magnified by the 1...5% rise in gold--the biggest daily % change since late January...The Fed's Powell speaks Tuesday at 9:55 am Eastern (14:55 London) on what....In the weekly video for the Premium subscribers (below), Ashraf highlights....The White House fanned the flames of protectionism more on Monday by removing....A separate report said the President had considered tariffs on Australian metals...A weekend white paper from China also hinted at an unwillingness to back down....The S&P 500 fell 8 points but that doesn't tell whole story...Equities have benefitted from plunging rates and that's cushioned the fall...The severe worry is in rates as US 2-year yields fell another 9 bps to 1...83%....On May 22, they were at 2...26%....The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in a 50% chance of a rate cut at....The market is hanging on signals about negotiations with China and Mexico but....The ISM manufacturing index fell to 52...1 from 52...8 and is now at the lowest since October 2016...The Fed's Bullard shifted further towards the dovish camp on Monday by....Late last month he had said a cut could be needed before year-end, so he moved....He also acknowledged the signals from the bond market...The day ahead features a speech from Powell in Chicago...The topic is monetary policy strategy and communication and there is no Q&....Yet, it would be a prime opportunity to crack open the door towards rate cuts...If so, the dollar will be primed for another day of selling as the crowded..
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Intraday Market Thought: Careful in Overinterpreting
by Adam Button | Jun 5, 2019 12:59
Encouraging words from Powell and Mexico's president were the main catalysts....Yields climbed and US indices shot to the best day in five months on Tuesday....nbsp; But stocks bulls are warned against overinterpret Powell's words...More on this below...May ADP is up next (exp 185K from 275k), followed by the ISM non-manufacturing....4 from 55...5)....The chart below speaks volumes about the gold note issued from 2 days ago...Two factors were behind the rebound in risk assets...The first was the commentary from Powell who said the Fed was 'closely....He also noted that inflation has undershot forecasts and left out any....The comments didn't justify the aggressive pricing of a 50% chance of a....More important may have been comments from Mexican President Lopez-Obrador....He said he's optimistic about a deal before June 10...Congressional leaders on both sides also frowned at the possibility of tariffs....It all added up to a 2...1% rally in the S&P 500 and a finish at the highs of the day...The index recovered a week of losses and rose back above the 200-day moving....The bond market was torn because the dovish comments from Powell mean rates....The 2-year yield rose 5...4 bps to 1...89%....That was partly because of comments from Fed vice chair Clarida who left the....But careful...Not only the Fed chairman stayed away from hinting at rate cuts like Bullard....Today, Dallas Fed's Kaplan said it is too early to make judgment on rate....Ashraf tweeted earlier this morning: "If such rhetoric dominates Bullard....especially if services ISM & AHE join batch of recent data fails"....The FX market was more in line with bonds as USD/JPY climbed only....Elsewhere the dollar was mostly pressured with commodity currencies....Looking ahead the ISM non-manufacturing index is a release to watch on Wednesday,....The ISM measures is forecast at 55...4, down slightly from 55...5...A strong report today would likely strengthen the hawks' resolve,....The Fed and the market will increasingly pivot towards economic data in the....Any surprise weakness would weigh on the US dollar and stock markets.
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed, ECB, Polls, Ballots & Debates
by Adam Button | Jun 17, 2019 14:57
USD remains mixed even after the US Empire manufacturing index (NY ISM) fell....The chance of a significant breakthrough between the US and China at the G20....CFTC positioning data showed that USD longs continue to falter but remain....Gold net have broken out key resistance...All eyes on this week's central bank meetings from the US and UK as well as....Gold and bond yields appear to be making up their minds, rising and falling....nbsp; GBP traders await three more ballots for the PM race due Tuesday,....Anti-no deal Brexit Rory Stewart is the fastest gainer in the odds...The chance of a genuine breakthrough at the G20 has fallen to almost nil...There have been no reports of serious preparatory talks or meaningful....That could be happening through back-channels but it's tough to believe....US Commerce Sec Wilbur Ross said a deal with China can be achieved, but it won&....One positive sign was that VP Pence delayed a speech that was harshly....There are signs, however, that it's being rescheduled for after the G20...Trump had said it was imperative that Xi attend the meeting or that fresh....At the moment, the market is optimistic about Fed easing and progress on a deal...Wednesday's FOMC will be a major market-mover...nbsp; Expect indices to get some cold feet ahead of the Fed early in the week....The Empire Fed on Monday fell by the most on record, all the way to -8...6 from +11...0...That was also the lowest reading since October 2016...Sintra Week....The importance of the ECB's annual Sintra conference is its inidcation for....Recall how the euro rallied after the July 6th conference when Draghi sounded....Should he and his colleagues offer a similar disposition to policy, we could....The question is: Will any bounce in the euro serve as an offset to a possible....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -87K vs -88K prior...GBP -45K vs -48K prior...JPY -45K vs -44K prior...CHF -25K vs -36K prior...CAD -33K vs -42K prior...AUD -63K vs -63K prior...NZD -16K vs -20K..
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Intraday Market Thought: 5 Markets Upended by the Fed
by Adam Button | Jun 21, 2019 14:01
Here are the markets that have been markedly impacted by the Federal Reserve....Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit 9922 and Ripple 0...45 as the erosion of carry from the Fed and Persian Gulf tensions help the....1) Gold....Gold pushed further into its 5-year highs to make its biggest daily % gain....It tested 1350 last Friday and again Tuesday before backing off...It finally closed above $1350 after the Fed and that kicked off a $27 surge to a....This zone has been a major level of resistance going all the way back to....The last time global central banks embarked on an easing cycle, gold hit....Add to it the escalation tensions in the Persian Gulf and you bolster the case....The Cup-&-Handle followed and shared by Ashraf over the last 6 months was....2) USD/CHF....Increasingly correlated with USDX, USDCHF is the biggest mover of the past....9800 from 1...000...It's carved out a rough head-and-shoulders top and broken the trendline....USD/CHF can do well with Fed rate cuts but it can do even better if it's....Ashraf sent me a chart of a stabilizing and rising CHFJPY, suggesting that....3) USD/JPY....USD/JPY has fallen by over a full yen (yen has risen) despite the run-up in....Ashraf's reationale to short USDJPY ahead of the Fed decision, whereby a....The BoJ won't welcome the Fed dovish turn but there is now little support....50...4) US 2-year yield....Not every market is screaming the same message...US 2-year yields plunged 7% on Wednesday to as low as 1...69%, posting its biggest % daily drop since September 2016, before turning....78%....Technically there isn't much of a reason to expect a further significant....The bond market was first to sniff out the Fed's dovish turn and any....5) CAD against everything....The Bank of Canada is suddenly in a bind...Central banks almost everywhere else are poised to ease but the data in Canada....Bouncing oil on the Persian Gulf tensions and absent BoC has dirven USD/....3113...The BOC is loathe to see the loonie strengthen rapidly, but their options to....The CAD trade in the Premium Insights remains short USDCAD at 1...3360/90.
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Intraday Market Thought: Golden View From the Mountain Top
by Adam Button | Jul 19, 2019 16:46
Ashraf released a revealing poll on Thursday, it asks what you would do if....See below about the insurance rate cut topic...I choose gold longs as one because even if the Fed cuts 25 bps and doesn't....Comments from key FOMC members opened the door for a 50-bp rate cut in....So what's next...Our 3 of USD Premium trades, 2 metals and 1 index trade are in progress and....25 bps or 50 bps?....NY Fed's John Williams sent markets on a ride after comment suggesting the....Also weighing on the USD were remarks from Richard Clarida, the vice president....We've had mixed data, but I do think the global data has been disappointing....Disinflationary pressures, if anything, are more intense than I thought six....rdquo;....Insurance Cut?....Another essential question is whether a rate cut this month will be an '....I don't expect we'll get the answer this month because the Fed would....Ashraf reminds us that the only time the Fed carried out an insurance easing was....Every other rate cut over the last 30 years was the start of a protracted....Both questions are relevant, but what's lost is that by cutting rates (25....25%-2...50% range shall be the top of the mountain for years...So whether a big global slowdown comes now or later, the path of rates is....When that comes, it's a screaming buy for gold...From a trading perspective, the timing is important but there is a positive....Last month, gold broke above the major $1380/$1400 zone and on Friday it climbed..
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Intraday Market Thought: What's after Markets' Obligatory Bounce
by Adam Button | Aug 8, 2019 14:51
The challenge is not to predict bottom picking in the markets, but how long and....We'll look into that a bit later...Fresh cycle lows in Treasury yields and a sharp drop in equities turned around....Markets bounced in the last 1 hour of NY traer and resumed into Thursday Asia....00 for the 1st time since 2008...Here's Ashraf's take on CNY detailing this somewhat confusing....Gold also hit a six-year high above $1500...داو جونز: بيع الإرتداد أو شراء الهبوط؟....فيديو للمشتركين....The market whimpered then roared Wednesday on a sharp turnaround in....Early in North American trade, US 10-year yields hit a cycle low of 1...59% and 30-year yields hit 2...21%, only a few basis points from an all-time low (that was established with Fed....That fear spilled into equity markets and the S&P 500 fell by as much as....In addition to the PBOC fixing, comments from Evans also helped sentiment, which....Also helping sentiment is a US report indicating that US-China trade talks are....A Chinese report cast some doubt on that but sentiment reversed and stocks and....The FX market moves played out on the same plane, but to a much smaller scale...USD/JPY fell 60 pips to 105...50 only to recoup the entire move...The Australian dollar was more impressive as it fell a full cent on the....One asset that didn't turn around was gold...It hit a six-year high of $1510 from an open of $1475 and held most of the gains....That strength in risk-positive and risk-negative environments is telling...Ashraf focused on the most likely path for gold and JPY in yesterday's....Markets will likely revert to watching the CNY fixing at the start of every..
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Intraday Market Thought: Get Ready for NFP, Powell
by Adam Button | Oct 4, 2019 12:27
A second soft ISM reading ended talk of a pause from the Fed and placed rate....Expect prolonged fluctuations today (fake breakouts & reversals) in the....NFP (more below) and hawish dissenter Rosengren are due at 8:30 Eastern (13:30....Below is the weekly English Premium Video clarifying the next positioning....The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to a three-year low just days after the....It was at 52...6 compared to 55...0 expected and much worse than low-estimate of 54...0...The initial market reaction was a continuation of the 'risk off'....Shortly afterwards, it morphed into a USD selloff and a rebound in equities...That was helped along by higher pricing for Fed cuts...The US 2-year fell to cycle lows at 1...366% and Fed fund futures pushed to price in an 85% chance of an Oct 30 and....Fed hopes and the typical buy-the-dips mentality quickly swung a 55-point low-....More broadly, the dollar stayed under pressure...Overall, it was a tougher day to put together a coherent narrative...There is a delicate balance in equities at economic turning points...There is always the hope that the Fed will save the day...At this point in 2008, US equities were hitting record highs on the belief that....At other times, that bet has been a good one but it will come down to how much....In Brexit news, the mood is souring as the EU and Ireland edged towards....For Johnson, however, it has given him some credibility and that could....If he can command a large majority, that would put the EU in a tougher spot down....Looking ahead, the employment component of the services ISM survey was an....It fell to 50...4 – the lowest since Feb 2014 -- from 53...1 last month...It has a mixed record on forecasting the jobs report and September is....The consensus for the 145K but the market has likely moved to something 20K..
