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Results: 631 to 640 of 1,000
Results: 631 to 640 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Ticks Away, Loonie & ECB
by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2019 22:43
Brexit hardliners are growing more nervous amid falling prospects of a no-....The pound is sensing an opening for a deal with cable gaining more than a cent....The Premium long in GBPUSD was closed for a 200-pip gain...A new trade in commodities was issued...Australian employment is up next...The ECB conference is on Thursday 13:30 GMT - Since the ECB is not expected to....more below)....تداول حول فنيات الزخم و الدعم الإتجاهي (فيديو للمشتركين)....January 29th vote....A bill to take a no-deal Brexit off the table gained momentum Wednesday and the....In addition to the solid earnings and employment figures, the Brexit dynamics....The Boles-Cooper bill -- aimed delaying Brexit if no new agreement is reached by....Cable rose to a two-and-a-half month high of 1...3081 on signs the dreaded option could be eliminated...Jacob Rees-Mogg called for Parliament to be prorogued rather than allowing the....On that front, the EU continues to brush off the possibility of a hard timeline....Technically, cable touched slightly above the 200-day moving average...If it can hold, little separates it from the November high of 1...3175...Elsewhere the Canadian dollar hit a 2-week low after retail sales fell 0...9% in November compared to -0...6% expected...Combined with recent misses in trade and wholesale data, there is a growing risk....USDCAD attempts to regain the 55-DMA of 1...3360s...nbsp; Oil support stands at 50...00....On the flipside, CAD and oil could be propped higher if Venezuela situation....The US and many Latam nations recognized Juan Guiado as the interim leader on....The days ahead will be extremely delicate...Here is our IMT analysis from last month's ECB press coference/revision...Looking at the calendar, Australian employment data is due at 0030 GMT and....The consensus is for 18...0K jobs with unemployment steady at 5...1%..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP-DUP Bounce, Euro Stable, Yuan into Equation
by Adam Button | Jan 25, 2019 12:10
The euro regains half of Thursday's 95-pip decline, which was caused by a....GBP spiked around midnight on reports that the Democratic Unionist Party will....Brexit focus will shift towards a series of votes scheduled for Jan 29,....nbsp; Softer than expected IFO data from Germany failed to prevent the euro....A new Premium USD trade was issued yesterday, already in the green...US durable goods and new home sales will not be released due to the ongoing US....Also note a potentially vital development for FX traders on the US-....Draghi shifted the risks to the downside in a move that undermined the euro but....He also hinted at reluctance to use LTROs and TLTROs and that initially sent....1380 before it embarked on a long slide to 1...1290 in part due to reports saying Germany was preparing to sharply....0% from 1...8%....Ashraf tells me Draghi's dovishness was especially thought out ahead of next....It could well be Draghi was countering any potential EUR bounce from the Fed...nbsp;....Technicals will play a large part in the next move as EUR/USD approaches the....1280, the Dec low of 1...1270 and the late-November low of 1...1267...All those levels could easily be taken out in cascading stops...On the flipside, it could hold and continue to build from that base...On the flipside of the trade, US Senators may be working on a compromise....A three-week extension on its own does almost nothing for growth, sentiment or....Yuan Component of US-China Talks....Finally, the US-China trade negotiations are now divided between the camp of....More importantly for FX traders, Mnuchin is increasingly referring to the rising..
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Intraday Market Thought: NFP Shakeup, China Takes off
by Adam Button | Feb 4, 2019 13:34
Friday's non-farm payrolls report failed to give the US dollar the kind of....Ye, the US currency is holding steady, largely against the yen and Aussie, with....The US jobs story was similar to the prior report, when a solid earnings....CFTC positioning data remains delayed...China goes for week-long holiday to observe the start of the New Year....Below is a statistical factoid about the Chinese Year of the Pig (if you're....Ashraf reminded me that last year's extraordinary Superbowl game coincided....Yesterday's game was as quiet as indices have been over the past 4 weeks...Things will likely remain quiet until mid March...USD/JPY rose over 60 pips on Friday but the dollar was mixed overall after non-....Jobs rose 304K compared to 165K expected but quirks raised questions...The household survey showed 241K jobs lost and that drove the unemployment....0% from 3...9%....Average hourly earnings were also soft at 0...1% vs 0...3% expected...A more-notable release was the ISM manufacturing index...The sector was hit hard by a series of soft readings in December but indicators....The January reading was 56...6 compared to 54...0 expected...A big beneficiary was the Canadian dollar as the momentum from January....USD/CAD fell below the 61...8% retracement of the Oct-Dec rally to as low as 1...3069 and is down 600 pips already this year...For traders of US indices and FX, DOW30 focus remains on the 25100/25150....In terms of positioning, we're eagerly anticipating the return of CFTC....The week of Dec 21 was published on Friday and the plan is to post reports....However government funding will only last through Feb 15 and another shutdown....On the calendar, it's lunar new year and that means Chinese markets are....Happy year of the pig to all our readers and, if you're into that kind of..
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Intraday Market Thought: SOTU non-event, Aussie Swings on RBA
by Adam Button | Feb 6, 2019 11:40
State of the Union speeches can be watersheds in markets as the US....Some tidbits may later reverberate...The RBA reverted to its old FX rhetorical acrobatics more below)....The Dow30 short trade in the Premium Insights was stopped out at 25400,....The latest Premium video provides suggestions for those who moved their....A new trade in commodities was also issued as last night...One announcement from Trump was a summit with Kim Jong Un in Vietnam Feb 27-28...At times nuclear drama has left a mark on markets and talks are likely to be....Yet, the real market mover remains the Trump-Xi encounter, which is likely to....It's not announced yet but the trip along with the timing around the March 1....On China, there was little new in Trump's speech...He called for a deal that reduces the US trade deficit in a familiar refrain....Trump also called for infrastructure spending (again) in what could be a....Such calls have been coming for years --if not decades -- and markets aren't....Don't forget the increased importance of the fiscal side of the....More Aussie Swings....The biggest move in markets wasn't on the State of the Union, but RBA....nbsp; He took a clear step into the neutral zone a day after the RBA....On Wednesday, Lowe switched to plain English...quot;Over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than....Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced," he said...AUD/USD dropped to 0...7150 from 0...7240 on the comments and economists have already begun to forecast rate cuts...Looking ahead, the US continues to catch up on data with November trade balance....It's a stale number but with trade in such flux, it could move markets..
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD Spikes on Jobs, GBP Holds
by Adam Button | Feb 8, 2019 16:12
CAD ends a 4-day losing streak to emerge the day's best peforming currency,....USDCAD was capped at the 55-DMA before falling below 1...33...Sterling maintains a comfortable hold above 1...29 following a volatile Thursday session, which saw the pair drop more than a....Thursday's index trade remains open and is 350 pts in the green...For more detail on the Premium Insights' use of stops and entry levels,....Carney is one of the final major central bankers to retain any hawkish bias....Cable was near 1...2850 before his comments then jumped to 1...2995...The rebounded was halted by resistance at 1...3000 at that point and it drifted back down to 1...2950...Sterling trades remain alert ahead of next week's anticipated vote in....The market is struggling to understand Carney's plan...He also once again warned that rates could go up on a no-deal Brexit because....We doubt that would take place because the resulting economic damage would be....Elsewhere, China-US trade tensions hurt sentiment sending stocks and bond yields....Trump said there would be no meeting with Xi before March 1 and White House....DOW30 broke 25k, SPX below 2690 and volatility will stand a better judge....US retail sales will finally be released next week.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Firms ahead of Big Week
by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2019 12:55
Most currencies are down against the US dollar since the start of Asia's....A big week of economic news and events awaits, with a statement from PM Theresa....We took 230-pt profit in the DAX30 Premium Insights trade with a detailed....The franc was the latest victim of thin-liquidiy flash crash around midnight....A closed Tokyo session due to Japan Holiday helped propagate the move, but....US CPI is due next...Canada's jobs market continues to defy signs of a slowing economy as it....The economy averaged more than 47,000 jobs added for the past five months, in....The numbers simply defy belief as the oil sector struggles and other economic....At some point there will be a reversion to the mean but it wasn't on Friday...USD/CAD fell to 1...3230 from 1...3300 on the headlines but that was the low of the day and it bounced a half-....The rebound afterwards reflected skepticism of the report, including....The overarching themes at the moment are global growth, central banks and US-....In the week ahead they will all be in the spotlight...The main event will be meetings between Mnuchin, Lighthizer and top China....Recent signals have been mixed and a deal before month-end is increasingly....This week's data calendar heats up as statisticians sort out the numbers....Late in the week we get UK and US retail sales and CPI as well as China trade....The UK data is likely to be overshadowed by Brexit politics once again as May....But a Tuesday speech from here will be key...She will need to secure clear concessions from the EU by Thursday....Her best hope appears to be a deal with Corbyn for Labour support but that risks....At risk is the 1...2850 support on GBPUSD, which appears increasingly endangered amid the latest....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: DUP'ing May & ECB Tiering
by Adam Button | Mar 28, 2019 15:20
UK PM Theresa May promised to resign if her Brexit deal passes through....The USD is up across the board with gold and silver underperforming FX vs USD...EURUSD accelerated its declines after German CPI came in at 1...3% vs exp 1...5%....Full detail on the ECB's suggested tiering approach to rates is found below...nbsp; A new trade has been posted for Premium subscribers along 2 charts &....كيفية إستغلال التداول العرضي (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....May's promise was initially met with optimism as Rees-Moog, Johnson and....However there are signs that 12-25 ERG members will still vote against it...The pound then gave back all its gains when the DUP said they would vote it....The vote will likely come on Friday so there's still time for May to lobby....Her best hope might be getting some Labour MPs on side...She needed to switch 75 votes from the last round and could get as many as 60....It's probably premature to wonder if there will be a MV4 if she loses by 20....At the moment, the EU's conditional deal to extend Article 50 to May 22....They could instead demand a longer extension...Outside of Brexit, the bond market continues to flash warning signs...There were fresh worries Wednesday from Chinese industrial profits, and the....US 5-year yields fell as low as 2...11% and the market is now pricing in a 78% chance of a Fed cut before year end...US 10 yr yield is bouncing off its 200-WMA after testing for the 1st time since....ECB Talks Tiering....In displaying European banks' displeasure with negative interest rates,....This would be done by setting zero interest rate to some excess reserves....All in all, this could be a measure by the ECB to demonstrate that it is not....If the tier system nears reality, it would imply a justification to keep....at the expense of the single currency...nbsp; German 10-year yields fell 6 bps to -0...06% -- the lowest since October 2016.
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Nears Tipping Point
by Adam Button | Apr 3, 2019 13:40
Crude oil is flirting with the 200-day moving average as OPEC tightens the....The US ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index are both due up....All currencies are up against the US dollar except for the yen...AUD leads the way...nbsp; Our long US crude oil Premium trade entered at 51-54 remains in....ماذا بعد جني الأرباح؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....Year-to-date, US crude oil is the 2nd highest performing commodity up 38%....Crude is now flirting with several key technical levels that will be pivotal in....The main one is the 200-day moving average...It was broken in WTI on Tuesday but sits just above the Brent high of $69...57...nbsp; Next is psychological resistance at $70...00 and just behind that is the Aug 2018 low (now resistance) at $70...30...If those break, watch the 61...8% retracement of the Q4 plunge at $72...68...It's increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia is determined to tighten global....They've nearly halted exports to the US and OPEC is pumping at four-year....Saudi officials were frustrated in September when the US granted sanctions....Investment in oil is low this year and speculators remain deeply skeptical of....Even with the jump so far this year, there is little enthusiasm in the market...A rise to Brent at $70 will likely trigger some producers to hedge but that....Another spot we have been watching closely is Bitcoin...Ashraf has been touting longs for weeks (see below) and the 15% rally added to....What's unclear is what was behind the rip in cryptocurrencies...There has been non-stop speculation but the only coherent thing we've seen....Looking ahead, the ISM non-manufacturing index is a key report to watch in the....The US economy has sent out confusing signals including on Tuesday when core....Also note that US drugstore giant Walgreens reported same-store sales down....8% y/y in Q1 as earnings get underway...The consensus for ISM is a dip to 58...0 from 59...7...The ADP employment report is expected at 175K from 183K.
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Steadies, Earnings Keep on Teching
by Adam Button | Apr 25, 2019 18:58
US corporate results continued to beat estimates for a range of industries with....Amazon beat earnings estimates, while JPY and gold were the only gainers vs....US durable goods orders beat estimates but US jobless claims jumped 37K, the....Today's Premium trade is currently 150 pts in the green...فيديو المشتركين يفحص صفقة اليوم) إغتنام التذبذب المستقر...Wednesday's 40-pip fall in the Canadian dollar probably isn't a....The loonie was higher against the euro, aussie and kiwi and a mid-performer....The CAD lows of the day came immediately after the statement as the modest....GDP estimates for this year were also cut to 1...2% from 1...7%....Poloz, however, offered his usual positive spin in the press conference....He highlighted risks on both sides of the forecast and skepticism about some....6 out of 10 During the Holiday....As Japan starts its 2-week holiday known as the Golden Holiday -- the period....e...USDJPY fell during this period in 6 out of the last 10 years...Note how USDJPY hardly moved for 7 days since Apr 15 before spiking to 112...40 on Wednesday & dropping to 111...38 on Thursday and stabilizing near 111...60s...The Premium USDJPY trade remains open...The bigger move in FX remains that of the US dollar...Much of is via the tumbling euro after softer German and French economic....The dollar didn't get any help from Treasuries, with yields across the curve....Cable struggles around 1...29, but key support remains at 1...2780.
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Intraday Market Thought: Lame Duck May?
by Adam Button | May 17, 2019 11:56
UK Labour leader Corbyn has just announced the breakdown of Brexit talks....May blamed it on divisions in the Labour Party...This sets set the stage for her departure, whether or not a Brexit....But what about the indicative votes? (see below)....Could this eventually set the stage for a rebound in the pound as it fell once....All currencies are down against the USD with the exception of the yen as risk....Monday's long DOW30 Premium trade was closed yesterday at 25870 for 450-pt....The other index trade remains open...The final act of Theresa May's leadership of the UK will take place in....She had previously pledged to leave after a deal on a meaningful vote but....According to 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady, May will leave regardless....May is attempting to introduce indicative votes in order to not only....More on this next week...GBP weakness is certainly UK-specific, but it is also exacerbated by USD....It appears to be a lost cause with Labour and the ERG already lining up....Labour is even reluctant to engage in futher deal talks with May because they....That leaves little hope of any political tailwinds until May officially quits...Pound vs Volatility....The turmoil and uncertainty has sent cable lower in eight of the past nine....At this point the market will grab onto any positive signs or developments but a....The better hope for a near-term rebound may be better economic data...Note in the above chart how sterling implied volatility has remained....Does this imply the lack of surprise element? Will volatility pick up when....2650/70 on a closing basis before a sharp move higher...On that front, there were positive signs Thursday in North America...US housing starts and the Phily Fed beat estimates, leading to a rebound in USD/....Canadian ADP employment data was also extremely strong in what should be....US-China Trade talks remain the dominant story in the backdrop and markets were....China struck a defiant tone saying it will never make concessions in important....Reports also said that the US is asking the EU and Japan for auto quotas that..
