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Results: 651 to 660 of 1,000
Results: 651 to 660 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Reality Check Pre Jobs
by Adam Button | Dec 6, 2019 12:37As we turn to the November jobs reports from the US and Canada (more below)....There are three (simplified) phases to an economic turn: Phase 1 is....Phase 3 is improvement...Which phase are we in? Below are charts on 2 of our existing Premium....A new Premium trade was issued yesterday evening...We're clearly Phase 2, but today's markets attempt to front-run everything,....The data isn't there yet...Aside from some Chinese fogures– usually unreliable – there isn't....Manufacturing remains especially weak and just today German factory orders....4% in October and down 5...5% year-over-year...Even in the US, this week's ADP and ISM data was all on the soft side...Most central banks have bought into the idea of a turn and now the looming....Even if data begins to tick higher on better consumer spending there needs to....The hope is that a US-China trade deal will spark some fresh investment but....A a phase one deal isn't going to remove the uncertainty, especially with....What's needed is more-aggressive stimulus from China to follow a phase....In the Chinese press Friday there was more talk of an MLF cut, which would....Better would be a package of rate cuts, easing lending restrictions and fiscal....Something along those lines from Europe would be helpful as well...But is it realistic?....That will be something to ponder in the weeks ahead...In the day ahead, the Canadian and US jobs reports are due...US non-farm payrolls are forecast at +183K but the risks are to the downside....Still, a miss will probably be brushed aside due to skews from the GM strike...The more-tradeable data could be from Canada where the consensus is +10K (as....We wrote recently about a wide divergence between the employment survey....There are more than 100K 'extra' jobs in the employment survey and the.. -
Intraday Market Thought: 400-pip Election & Unconfirmed Deals
by Adam Button | Dec 13, 2019 14:16
UK Conservatives won a resounding electoral majority to ensure a Brexit....Less than 20 hours after Trump lifted markets with his trademark tweet on....again (more below)....The pound soared by more than 4 cents to 1...3514--the highest in 19 months straight after exit polls showed Conservatives....US Nov retail sales disappointed with a 0...1% rise (control group) vs expectations of 0...3%....nbsp; Days like Thursday remind us why we love the FX market...The news and market moves were non-stop in a sea of opportunity...The DAX Premium trade was stopped out and a new GBP trade issued ahead of the....What's a Friday without a Trump Trade Tweet....US indices are off 0...8% after Trump disputed a WSJ article stating that he agreed to roll back....The details are still murky but we have yet to hear from China's state....It will undoubtedly ratchet down tensions and promises a period of....Like the UK vote, traders were also reluctant to price in a deal because of....The deal is good news for global growth in H12020 and underscores that the....There are many breakouts but a standout is AUD/USD...We highlighted the break of the major downtrend yesterday...The was followed by breaks of the 200-day moving average and the October high....A weekly close above those levels would be a further positive signal...The UK election was the crescendo...The market has been leaning towards a solid Conservative majority since the....So even though the result was 'expected', we had a massive market....Part of that also speaks to the strength of the Conservative majority...It looks to be at the extreme limit of what polls were indicating...UK Conservatives crushed expectations with 364 seat-victory, fuelling sterling&....Wit the rise above 1...35 the pound broke the March 2019 high...In the bigger picture it's only back to where it was on the night of the....In the days ahead real-money and structural shorts will be unwound and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Manufacturing and Negative Rate Blues
by Adam Button | Dec 20, 2019 12:57
The US dollar struggled on Thursday after a poor factory reading while....On Thursday, the Australian dollar led the way while the pound lagged as it has....US PCE data and Canadian retail sales are up next...Ashraf noticed peculiar developments in markets yesterday, as tweeted below...The weak Philly Fed on Thursday gives us another chance to highlight the risks....The Philly Fed was at +0...3 versus +8...0 expected....The miss kicked off a slump in the US dollar against the yen and re-emphasizes....In Sweden, the Riksbank move to raise its benchmark rate to zero from -0...25% is more-notable for the 'why' than the 'what'....Inflation is Sweden is under 2% and projected to stay this way and growth is....2% next year...Those aren't the conditions for hiking rates anywhere but the move wasn&....In raising rates the central bank warned if negative rates continued for too....ECB voices are growing louder to re-think negative rates...It was also notable that the currency reaction to the move was modest and that&....Looking ahead, today is the final fully-staffed trading day of the year on most....Flows should lighten substantially from here but not until a pair of key....The November US PCE report may disappoint on the spending side if the....The consensus is +0...4% but last week's retail report was +0...2% compared to +0...5% expected and many of the estimates haven't been updated since...We also get a look at Canadian consumers but note that this is data for October...With this week's slump in the pound, the loonie is now the year-to-date....With oil strong it's not likely to give up the title at this point but a..
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Intraday Market Thought: Real News, Fake Breakouts
by Adam Button | Jan 8, 2020 22:07
An apparent de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict led to massive reversals in....The kiwi was the top performer and yen lagged in a volatile day of trading...Expect geopolitics to continue to dominate in the days ahead...Tuesday's Premium short in the DOW30 hit it its final target of 28150 for a....A new trade was issued on Wednesday evening (neither in FX nor indices)....حان وقت صفقة أنتظرناها اكثر من 3 أشهر...فيديو للمشتركين)....On Tuesday, gold rose to the highest since 2013 and WTI oil spiked to $65 but....The high-to-low swing in oil was nearly 10%....Equity markets also swung towards solid gains from deep loses...The market thinking now is that both sides have flexed their muscles, while....However that true that maybe at the highest levels, there are hawks on both....On the US side that impulse can be restrained by Trump but he's....On Iran's side, leadership has less control over militias and proxies who....Along those lines, late on Wednesday a pair of rockets were fired towards the....So while top leadership in Iran may want to avoid war, there are some who pine....Even if a group unaffiliated with Iran strikes the US, the blame (and....In terms of trading around geopolitics; it remains a minefield...Unlike the worst of Trump's tweets on the US-China trade war, where....nbsp; The fog of war has descended on news surrounding Iran...There have been multiple rumors and fake reports of attacks in the past week....So when the real news began to trickle in, markets were initially skeptical...A continual risk will be rumors and fake reports about further attacks...That backdrop will make it challenging to stay in risk trades and that strongly..
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Intraday Market Thought: How Disorderly can Dollar Demand Get?
by Adam Button | Mar 19, 2020 15:00
At the time of writing this, matters have stabilised with respect to USD....Also news of no Corona virus cases from China for the 1stime in over 7 weeks is....Sharp moves lower overnight in the pound and commodity currencies highlight a....The Australian dollar tumbled to the lowest since 2002 and sterling to the....RBA cut rates last night before the BoE cut rates by 15 bps to 0...10% w/ fresh round of QE, pushing GBPUSD across the board on what's....Here are Ashraf's thoughts on possible FX intervention...DOW30 attempting to regain the 38% retracement level near 20750/20800...A new FX trade was issued last night for Premium subscribers, whose stop/target....The latest Premium Video is posted below...The magnitude of the moves in financial markets is in some way secondary to the....Combined, they've created an immense liquidation event and a need for....It's deleveraging in overdrive and the only place anyone wants to be is US....Neither gold nor bonds have provided any level of safety this week and that'....The flows are self-reinforcing as the dollar climbs higher and risk assets....As a result, haven assets like gold and bonds are being liquidated to raise cash....The financial world works on US dollars and this may be the most-powerful....Even in South Korea, which is one of the few countries that has the upper hand....The won fell to the lowest since 2009 on Thursday and officials warned that the....The drop in the pound to 1985 levels harkens back to the Plaza Accord that....We may be days away from a similar coordinated intervention in the FX....Before then, the Fed may try to open swap lines to more central banks to....But beware of those monthly candles and their monthly close...With now joining in the extreme volatility, we've reached a make-or-....Bond markets have grown disorderly and it will take a new page from the central....In the meantime, the trend is our friend...The dollar is soaring across the board and authorities will need to truly shock..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold's Quiet Ascent vs Oil Confusion
by Adam Button | Apr 6, 2020 14:02
All currencies are recovering against the US dollar and yen as indices rally....Even GBP is regaining some ground, after having been dragged across the board....Today the PM is said to be in goood spirits...Gold and silver are at the top, while JPY is the weakest...more on gold and silver below)....nbsp; CFTC positioning showed an increasingly-crowded euro trade...The action in metals is far quieter than in energy, but shows a steady run-up in&....The other major weekend developments were at OPEC, where Monday's planned....After the close on Friday Trump said the free market could sort it out in a....Brent and WTI both opened down around 10% but the drama is likely to continue....Several OPEC members have hinted at cooperation and some countries outside....One compelling argument to cut is that even with 10 mbpd less oil on the world....Even without US participation there is a compelling argument to cut because it....For US rivals, they can still bankrupt shale at those levels while cushioning....As we saw last week, it will be a headline-driven market and that's a....Cable fell 40 pips at the open to 1...2230 on news that Johnson was in hospital after 10 days of persistent....A statement said the move was for precautionary reasons but he will spend....There are all kinds of rumors about his health...There are multiple reports from other government officials that he has been....We prefer not to speculate on anyone's health but given the agonizing....As GOLD and SILVER regain their ascent, Ashraf urges you to watch his recent....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +76K vs +61K prior...GBP +5K vs +11K prior...JPY +18K vs +24K prior...CHF +5K vs +5K prior...CAD -22K vs -29K prior...AUD -31K vs -25K prior...NZD -16K vs -16K prior....Euro longs are now at the highest levels since June 2018...Underscoring the shift, as recently as Feb 25, shorts were at -114K...The appetite to bet on the euro now that carry trades have unwound is a bit of a....Otherwise, positioning is about what you would expect.
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Intraday Market Thought: Retail Traders Forcing the Issue
by Ashraf Laidi | May 21, 2020 20:22
3% +(-) days in indices are becoming rarer by the day as authorities do their....in the markets...If reopening the economy is considered to be a near equivalent to monetary....2 trillion stimulus package voted on by the House of Representatives is passed....The Fed certainly agrees...Meanwhile, Monday's announcement by Germany and France to announce a €....As much as these developments are considered to be positive for the....76%....That is not stopping traders from forcing the issue (more below)....اذا كانت هناك صفقة واحدة، ماذا سأختار؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....Don't Force the Market....A common mistake from retail traders (and a recurring error of mine during....Yet, it's crucial to not become too complacent...The last sentence implies a serious balancing act in the face of stark....So far, we have had winning trades in DOW30 on the long and short...But it's not getting any easier...During the 30 mins starting today (Thursday) at 14:20 Eastern Time (New....The selloff was mainly driven by energy and technology...As we enter the final hour of trading, I expect SPX and DOW30 to retest the lows,....The key for Forex traders is to figure out, which pairs to trade and how to....Currently, 5 of our 6 open our Premium Insights trades are in the green, with....There are 2 in FX, 2 in commodities, 1 index and 1 crypto...Join our VIP WhatsApp Broadcast Group..
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Intraday Market Thought: Emotion Takes Over
by Adam Button | Jun 8, 2020 12:07
Emotion is in the streets and the markets, raising that question....The kiwi was the runaway top performer last week while the yen was the laggard...Today, gold and silver are the biggest gainers vs USD, while GBP is the biggest....The Fed and Congress will be spots to watch this week...Emotion is in the streets and it's in the market...Protests raged around the world on the weekend but markets are anything but....The shift to greed from fear has been remarkable and reflects a world in....Fundamentals made a foray into the equation on Friday as the US added 2...5m jobs compared to -7...5m expected...That sent the risk trade into overdrive with the S&P 500 up 2...6% and extended the breakout in 10-year Treasury yields to 0...95%....In FX, examples of the euphoria in markets include the nine-day rally in....The kiwi is in the midst of a seven-day rally...At times like this, you hope to find a trend and hang on for dear life, because....The amplified emotions amplify market moves...Even hedge fund giant Stanley Druckenmiller, who said two weeks ago....nbsp; ....What could end it? Certainly everyone is looking for bad news from the virus as....In the near-term, the Fed meeting Wednesday is a risk...Any sign that the cheap-money party will ever end would be met with some....Congress and stimulus are in focus too with the latest report citing Mitch....That's still a remarkable number at any time in history but it's far....5T package the House passed to tee up some jitters...For now, the party continues...As former Citi CEO Chuck Prince famously said, “As long as the music is....rdquo;CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +81K vs +75K prior...GBP -36K vs -22K prior...JPY +33K vs +35K prior...CHF +9K vs +9K prior...CAD -33K vs -34K prior...AUD -41K vs -40K prior...NZD -13K vs -15K..
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Intraday Market Thought: Pavlovian Powell Play
by Adam Button | Jun 16, 2020 17:16
Fed Chair Powell stuck to a largely expected rhetoric during his....Powell's testimony lead with indications that the US may be bottoming....He did his best to qwell speculation of negative rates, while admitting they....مستويات المضاربة العرضية...فيديو المشتركين)....Monday's unexpected announcement from the central bank revealed more....Risk trades rebounded after a poor start to the week...Now heavy slate economic data kicks off...The Fed has rolled out an unprecedented number of programs since the start of....On Monday, the Federal Reserve announced it was buying corporate bonds directly...Risk assets jumped and the US dollar sank...Previously the Fed had only been buying corporate bond ETFs...A closer inspection shows that the Fed was mostly doing what was already....When corporate bond buys were announced in March, the plan was always to buy....Effectively the Fed was simply doing what they had already promised to do...Certainly we could take issue the rational...Initially the Fed said “Purchases will be focused on reducing the broad-....rdquo; Corporate spreads are already in-line with that objective, so arguably....Of course, that wouldn't be in-line with Powell's pledge last week to....quot;....So while this wasn't anything new or surprising, the timing was odd...It could have been announced on the weekend or before the market open...Given that this wasn't anything new or material and that the Fed didn't....The automatic risk-on reaction to “Fed” and “bond buying”....There's no deeper strategy...That underscores the emotion in the market and how the narrative can flip....Risk trades were initially bumped higher Monday when Florida rose 2...3%, below the 2...4% average over the past week...nbsp; However note that cases reported Monday have been consistently low....So while cases at 1758 were certainly lower than the 2581 record on Saturday,..
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Intraday Market Thought: Biden Leads but Questions Remain
by Adam Button | Nov 5, 2020 18:35
There have been big moves in equities and bonds following the US election but....USD selling and indices buying intensified on the inevitable scenario....Ans dont forget Bitcoin, which rallied to $15,300...The FOMC is up next...nbsp; Ashraf is expected to issue a trade after the FOMC stmt and ahead of....nbsp;....Betting markets are giving Biden an 88% chance of taking the White House in a....If he retains the lead in both, he wins...But even if Trump mounts an unanticipated comeback, Biden could win....Aside from the voting uncertainty, Trump has taken his fight to the courts...Legal watchers say his efforts are a longshot but they send a strong signal....The vote also ensures that one side or the other will feel deep disillusion....In terms of legislation, the equity market cheers that there won't be....We always viewed those as longshot outcomes anyway, given the number of....There is some sense of a relief trade but this isn't exactly a clear....That thinking was clear in bonds where Treasury yields fell 14 bps at the long....What comes next is murky and that's reflected in the FX market...AUD/USD was unable to break Tuesday's high and there was sideways trading....It's clear to us that the growth outlook for the US and countries that....But that could be recovered on better China relations...At the same time, the virus still looms and the US hit 100,000 cases for the....In Europe though cases appear to be cresting...In all, the murkiness argues for caution on all fronts in the days ahead...In addition, the ADP jobs data and the employment component of the ISM services....Admittedly though, they haven't been great predictors lately...First, we get the FOMC decision...Given the uncertainty, expect Powell to stick to the script but reminder markets....The election will undoubtedly overshadow it.
