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  • Intraday Market Thought: Capitulation or Adjustment?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 28, 2020 1:32
    Capitulation or Adjustment? Chart The first signs of capitulation showed emerged in a big way on Thursday as....4%, posting their biggest 1-day percentage drop since 2011, bringing the....The combination of Microsoft downgrades triggering corporate worries with....A new Premium video has been issued below, covering why/how our indices were....I cover my take on FX and indices and the implications for Friday's trades...Will central banks step in before the weekend? My take below...As for what's next, we could make all sorts of profound arguments about....Alternatively, we could approach the situation by asking “what would....Their job is to safeguard the financial system after all...Some would GDP growth is doing OK and & jobs are solid, while markets are....Don't forget that Fed funds futures are currently pricing three rate cuts by..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold 1796, Aussie's Virus Return

    by Adam Button | Jul 7, 2020 13:43
    Gold 1796, Aussie's Virus Return Chart Risk appetite finally tapers off after the Bank of Japan said it will not....Aussie is the biggest loser of the day on a combination of cautious commentary....The Premium gold long entry at 1690 reached its final target of 1790...The Premium Insights service is ready to send a 2-pronged tactical plan this....استراتيجية صفقتين مزدوجة -- فيديو المشتركين...The overarching reason for the latest round of US dollar weakness is risk....The latest jolt came from China, where the Shanghai Composite gained 13% over....Money may be returning to emerging markets more generally as sentiment....Moreover, the US could be suffering from the effects of rising virus cases....Every day where cases remain elevated in the US compared to other developed....The dollar managed to recoup some losses Monday on a jump in the ISM non-....1 from 45...4, but is now under fresh pressure...An initial retreat in oil has added to CAD's losses, which were built from....nbsp; USDCAD may eye 1...3610 on deepening risk aversion, while EURCAD could retest 1...5420...Gold  nears 1800, showing no sign of breaking below its medium term....1240s...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Indices & Oil Crossroads, Euro One Direction

    by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2020 17:05
    Indices & Oil Crossroads, Euro One Direction Chart Euro and sterling are neck-and-neck on the ascent after the European Central....US jobless fell to 1...3 million, a new 3-month low...nbsp; US bank earnnings were mixed, with Bank of America down afer falling....Ashraf is watching oil as it scrapes the top of the March 9th gap, a close above....50/60 would help trigger the next leg down in USD...All major US indices are down, led by NASDAQ -1...6% as Twitter slumped after the hacking of the accounts of some prominent public...Today's Premium trade released after the ECB is +20 pips in the green, but....nbsp;  ....The Bank of Canada introduced a dovish style of forward guidance on Wednesday,....CAD is now mixed today against the FX pack...The BoC delivered a mild surprise with a commiton ment to "hold the policy....quot; Macklem made it clear that wouldn't be until the output gap was....nbsp; ....It's early in the post-COVID world but don't rule out a change in the....Rate differentials are a dead trade for now with everything in developed markets....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Picking Tops or Following Through?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 4, 2020 22:47
    Picking Tops or Following Through? Chart What is more difficult? To short a market at its the highs, or short it....0% without getting squeezed?  We heard all of sorts of technical,....Breadth was too low (rally was concentrated among few companies)....But the bulls also had their arguments—sector rotation was replacing the....We initially went short the NASDAQ last week and got burned, then did so with....So what did you do in Thursday evening? ....Here is the OPEN-ACCESS link for our Premium video, making the case for a new....And below are a few comments from members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen Crosses, Yields Push, Stimulus Awaited

    by Adam Button | Oct 6, 2020 17:18
    Yen Crosses, Yields Push, Stimulus Awaited Chart Powell speech came and went and indices remain in tight ranges, following a....Rising Treasury yields and yen crosses highlighted rising appetite for stimulus....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged...The ECB faces a tough test on what to do next...This week's Premium video (English+Arabic) is posted below, highlighing the....nbsp;....The combination of Trump's leaving the hospital and increased odds of the....Meetings between Mnuchin and Pelosi will continue Tuesday after an exchange of....It remains challenging to handicap the odds of a deal and the likelihood it....5-$2...2 trillion in additional spending, with the growth/inflation impulse behind it...The move was led by long-dated bonds as 30-year yield rose 8 bps to above the....At 1...58%, 30s also crossed the 200-day moving average for the first time since March....A number of yen crosses also made significant moves and breaks of the....Beyond the guessing game on stimulus, the general willingness of both parties....Polls continue to show a moderate-to-high likelihood of a blue wave and that....Monday was a taste of the price action that will persist in financial markets..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Boris’ Deadline Looms & Four in One

    by Adam Button | Oct 14, 2020 23:52
    Boris’ Deadline Looms & Four in One Chart Sterling rebounded Wednesday on signs that negotiations will continue but the....It looks like Brexit talks will extend til the last week of December...The pound was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...US initial jobless claims are due up next...Four (4) new Premium trades were posted today for Premium subscribers, including....Below is some input from members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group following....nbsp;....A call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen didn't achieve any....Johnson lamented the lack of progress afterward and said he had to “....Von der Leyen said that they're working on a deal but not at any price...Johnson is approaching his deadline for talks and will make a decision Thursday....Sterling bounced on reports suggesting his aides will tell him that a deal is....Both sides believe that early November is the real deadline, according to....This is a critical point in negotiations but – as we often write –....Boris is well-known for playing games of brinksmanship and that's how he got....No doubt he will do the same this time and that will entail stubbornness...The EU will surely have seen this though and could dig in, leading to a messy....In all likelihood, a deal is eventually made but like in the US election, the....In terms of the US economy, we get back to some data on Thursday with the Empire....Claims are expected to remain sky high at 825K, a small dip from 840K last week.

  • Intraday Market Thought: How about the Euro Index?

    by Adam Button | Dec 10, 2020 14:26
    How about the Euro Index? Chart ًYou've all heard of the USD Index...Here is the euro index below...Euro firms above the 1...2100 after raising the PEPP by EUR 500 bn by 9 mths, while revising the....Boosting the the program of ultra cheap loans is seen as a positive for the....nbsp; Hopes for a breakthrough in Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels were....Sterling is off its lows, recoverying from earlier slump as EU/UK leaders gave....Indices resume their selloff, led by tech after the US govt's lawsuit on....Ashraf issued a new trade yesterday (currently 80 pips in the green) and will....nbsp;....A three-hour dinner between Johnson and von der Leyen proved to be fruitless on....They promised a decision about whether to continue on Sunday, which sets the FX....The same problems on fishing, enforcement and level playing field....For its part, the market remains optimistic...Even after a sharp fall on the meeting headlines, sterling later recovered most....Meanwhile the global theme continues to be strong economic data...UK October GDP cruised past expectations of a flat reading with a 0...4% gain...Industrial production was also firmer in the month.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Next, Yen Crosses & Make a Move

    by Adam Button | May 28, 2021 12:54
    A fresh wave of yen selling has sparked a resurgence in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...The US PCE report is due up next (more details below)....Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group he's going long USDJPT at 108...90s, targetting 109...70s...He also indicated shorting NZD vs USD and GBP...nbsp;This will be a very busy & volatile session ahead...Be careful...nbsp;....GBP/JPY is flirting with the 2018 high after a strong climb on Thursday...If it can breach that level, the pair would touch the highest since July 2016...GBP/JPY steadily climbed alongside stocks from late 2020 through February....It has now broken out this month and and that's a positive sign for it and....EUR/JPY also made a move on Thursday to the highest since Feb 2018 and has risen....Even CHF/JPY is surging and that price action indicates that the yen is quickly....At the same time, we can't rule out that dollar liquidity issues and month end....US economic data offered little market direction but was indicative of an....Initial jobless claims fell to 406K from 425K expected and will continue to fall....Core durable goods orders were also strong, rising 2...3% compared to 1...0% expected...Finally, the second look at Q1 GDP was in line with the +6...4% consensus but the underlying numbers were a reminder that inventory....Data will certainly be in focus on Friday, with the US PCE report out at....The Fed's preferred measure of inflation – PCE core – is forecast to....9% from 1...8% and if it does, that will be the highest since 1994 in something that's....However so long as it's near consensus, the market will shrug that off...Moreover, we've highlighted how high prints have led to USD spikes that are....Note that Monday is a holiday in the US and that markets will thin out early..

  • Intraday Market Thought: PCE Cools the Inflation Narrative

    by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2021 14:41
    USD regains strength after Friday's post-PCE slide...A series of inflation surprises left the market on edge ahead of the May PCE....All currencies are down vs the dollar, except for GBP...CFTC positioning emphasized the short-squeeze after the FOMC meeting...Make sure to watch & rewatch Ashraf's video on the tapering dynamics....nbsp; ....PCE core inflation rose 3...4% in May, as expected...The headline number at 3...9% also matched estimates...The numbers come after CPI data hit 5% in a big surprise...The market eventually digested (and shrugged off) the high CPI reading but....The dollar sold off on the headlines but hours later it recovered, in part to a....The bond market continues to be a key barometer...It's the single-most sensitive asset class to inflation and the Fed...With 10s at 1...52% the message about transitory inflation is clear but it will be tested....The new week starts with a strong rally in crypto, led by a 10% weekend jump in....The resolve of the bulls this month despite a battering has been impressive...CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +89K vs +118K prior...GBP +18K vs +32K prior...JPY -53K vs -47K prior...CHF +14K vs +9K prior...CAD +43K vs +44K prior...AUD -17K vs -18K prior...NZD +3K vs +3K prior...This is the first look we have at post-Fed positioning and it highlights the....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Respite or Reversal?

    by Adam Button | Jul 21, 2021 14:48
    Respite or Reversal? Chart A 2nd day of sharp rebound in US treasury yields continues to command the....The recovery in bond yields off their 100-WMA raises as many questions as it....The below chart shows familiar technical paramters, with yields remaining....nbsp;JPY is down across the board, while JPY is only higher vs JPY as CAD and....nbsp;....Buying the dips in risk assets has been the single best trade of the past 20....Early in New York trading on Tuesday it looked like another spill could be in....13% from 1...21% just hours earlier but sentiment shifted with equities recouping all of....One of the triggers for the initial retreat were declines  in US....Both were shy of estimates and that was an unwanted negative nudge...Whether the rebound marks an interim or lasting bottom in sentiment will depend....The UK case and hospitalization numbers will be particularly key in the days....There are early positive signs elsewhere with cases in the Netherlands ebbing....In hard-hit Indonesia, cases are also leveling off at a high level...With the market now focused on covid, there will be an ebb and flow in....A wild card could be a more-cautious turn from central bankers...Any hint at an easier stance will be a green light for commodity currencies,....On the technical side, we note the continued breakdown in cable and the....4250 with a measured target at 1...31...Even in the rebound in sentiment, GBP/USD struggled to get traction...After four days of selling, an inability to muster a stronger bounce on....EURGBP continues to show improving technicals...nbsp;..
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