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  • Intraday Market Thought: From Patient Trump to Patient Fed

    by Adam Button | Jun 19, 2019 12:55
    From Patient Trump to Patient Fed Chart Markets in quiet mode ahead of the Fed decision/press conference following a....GBP traders await the 3rd ballot for PM contenders about 1 hour before the Fed....US President Trump reached out with a phone call to Chinese President Xi on....The announcement spurred already rallying indices after Draghi's....UK May CPI slipped to 2...0% from 2...1%....Both DOW30 and FTSE100 trades were stopped out...A new trade ahead of the FOMC decision will be released this afternoon...nbsp;فيديو المشتركين كيفية التمركز قبل الفدرالي...Trump revealed the change in tone via a tweet saying they will have extended....Staff level talks will also restart ahead of the meeting...At the same time, the reaction in Chinese media to the talks was tepid...They highlighted that it was the US that reached out and said the chances of a....That's a hint that China hasn't wavered in its red lines...USD/JPY immediately jumped 45 pips on the headline and the news added to an....Gains earlier had been spurred by Mario Draghi, who said the ECB would act....That's a reversal from his stance two weeks ago when he pledged action....USDJPY continues to face resistance at 108...80...The combined news led to a jump in global equities, including 1% in the S&....The challenge now is that markets are pricing in both lower rates and a....In reality, the Fed will be pained to cut rates if a China-US deal is on track...An insurance-style cut would still be possible but not the 3-4 cuts over the....Will Fed patience pay?....After having shifted to a neutral stance at the start of the year, the Fed is....The majorty of US data sets over the last 6 weeks have come in below....nbsp;....For the Fed, 'patience' is key...Recent statements have indicated the FOMC would be 'patient' in....If that's removed, it's a strong signal that a rate cut is coming in....Nonetheless, it may be paired with conditionality and the lack of an....The conditionality could relate to the trade war, inflation data or the....With the market already pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a cut, anything....Officials may also use a fresh set of projections along with Powell's....The central tendency of the Fed funds projection is 2...4-2...9% at the end of 2020 and 2...4-2...6%....Both of those will undoubtedly be revised down, but will need to at least....25%-2...50% range to keep the market happy...We must also watch the inflation forecasts and Powell's conference....Overall, the market has priced in an aggressive path from the Fed that would....It may be too early for that and the knee-jerk risks are towards....At the same time, Powell will attempt to keep a cut on the table and highlight....That may be enough to halt any reactionary moves quickly...A new trade for Premium Insights clients is due hours before the Fed decision...Pound rallies on Stewart ahead of 3rd Ballot....Elsewhere, the pound rebounded from five-month lows as staunch Brexiter Dominic....GBP-friendly candidate Rory Stewart continued to be the fastest gainer (but....Another vote takes place today around 6pm London time, with Stewart and Javid....Earlier today, GBP edged up even as UK CPI slipped to 2...0%  from 2...1%....Another disappointment would give Carney a reason to soften his warnings that..

  • Hot-Chart: DAX Metamorphosis

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 30, 2019 18:17
    DAX Metamorphosis Chart The Daily DAX30 chart below may appear confusing at first, but it's worth....Is this case of a metamorphosis from one textbook formation to another? We think....Getting to the point: The formation starts with an inverse head-&....The 12,655 objective then initiates a head-&-shoulders (bearish) formation,....For the tradable implications of this formation and other trades, please tune....Does it appear too good to be true? If valid, the current formation suggests an....Would this be achieved this week once markets are dissatisfied with a mere 25-....With regards to that 12650 high reached at the start of July, we predicted it 3..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Risk Trades Escalate, Virus Cases Dip Pre Powell

    by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2020 14:38
    The drift further higher in risk trades continues as China reported fewer new....USD is off across the board (w/ the exception against JPY) after Fed Chair....More market action could ensue after Powell immerses himself in the Q&A....GBP resumes gains after UK Q4 GDP came in at 1...1% y/y vs exp 0...8% y/y...One of EURUSD Premium trades was stopped out and a new trade has been ....China reported 2,478 coronavirus cases compared to 3,062 a day earlier and that....US equities finished with a flourish on Monday with the S&P 500 up 24 points...A red flat continues to be in bonds where Treasury yields fell 3 bps to....50%....One way to square the divergence is the expectation that the Fed will stay lower....It's the same one-way bet that has kept risk trades bid for months...If the coronavirus fizzles it will be one of the great achievements in public....We're months away from the all-clear but AUD/USD presents significant value if....It probed through 0...6700 last week to financial-crisis lows but has rebounded back above...Here is what happened the last time Powell spoke 11 days ago.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Capitulation or Adjustment?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 28, 2020 1:32
    Capitulation or Adjustment? Chart The first signs of capitulation showed emerged in a big way on Thursday as....4%, posting their biggest 1-day percentage drop since 2011, bringing the....The combination of Microsoft downgrades triggering corporate worries with....A new Premium video has been issued below, covering why/how our indices were....I cover my take on FX and indices and the implications for Friday's trades...Will central banks step in before the weekend? My take below...As for what's next, we could make all sorts of profound arguments about....Alternatively, we could approach the situation by asking “what would....Their job is to safeguard the financial system after all...Some would GDP growth is doing OK and & jobs are solid, while markets are....Don't forget that Fed funds futures are currently pricing three rate cuts by..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold 1796, Aussie's Virus Return

    by Adam Button | Jul 7, 2020 13:43
    Gold 1796, Aussie's Virus Return Chart Risk appetite finally tapers off after the Bank of Japan said it will not....Aussie is the biggest loser of the day on a combination of cautious commentary....The Premium gold long entry at 1690 reached its final target of 1790...The Premium Insights service is ready to send a 2-pronged tactical plan this....استراتيجية صفقتين مزدوجة -- فيديو المشتركين...The overarching reason for the latest round of US dollar weakness is risk....The latest jolt came from China, where the Shanghai Composite gained 13% over....Money may be returning to emerging markets more generally as sentiment....Moreover, the US could be suffering from the effects of rising virus cases....Every day where cases remain elevated in the US compared to other developed....The dollar managed to recoup some losses Monday on a jump in the ISM non-....1 from 45...4, but is now under fresh pressure...An initial retreat in oil has added to CAD's losses, which were built from....nbsp; USDCAD may eye 1...3610 on deepening risk aversion, while EURCAD could retest 1...5420...Gold  nears 1800, showing no sign of breaking below its medium term....1240s...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Indices & Oil Crossroads, Euro One Direction

    by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2020 17:05
    Indices & Oil Crossroads, Euro One Direction Chart Euro and sterling are neck-and-neck on the ascent after the European Central....US jobless fell to 1...3 million, a new 3-month low...nbsp; US bank earnnings were mixed, with Bank of America down afer falling....Ashraf is watching oil as it scrapes the top of the March 9th gap, a close above....50/60 would help trigger the next leg down in USD...All major US indices are down, led by NASDAQ -1...6% as Twitter slumped after the hacking of the accounts of some prominent public...Today's Premium trade released after the ECB is +20 pips in the green, but....nbsp;  ....The Bank of Canada introduced a dovish style of forward guidance on Wednesday,....CAD is now mixed today against the FX pack...The BoC delivered a mild surprise with a commiton ment to "hold the policy....quot; Macklem made it clear that wouldn't be until the output gap was....nbsp; ....It's early in the post-COVID world but don't rule out a change in the....Rate differentials are a dead trade for now with everything in developed markets....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Picking Tops or Following Through?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 4, 2020 22:47
    Picking Tops or Following Through? Chart What is more difficult? To short a market at its the highs, or short it....0% without getting squeezed?  We heard all of sorts of technical,....Breadth was too low (rally was concentrated among few companies)....But the bulls also had their arguments—sector rotation was replacing the....We initially went short the NASDAQ last week and got burned, then did so with....So what did you do in Thursday evening? ....Here is the OPEN-ACCESS link for our Premium video, making the case for a new....And below are a few comments from members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen Crosses, Yields Push, Stimulus Awaited

    by Adam Button | Oct 6, 2020 17:18
    Yen Crosses, Yields Push, Stimulus Awaited Chart Powell speech came and went and indices remain in tight ranges, following a....Rising Treasury yields and yen crosses highlighted rising appetite for stimulus....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged...The ECB faces a tough test on what to do next...This week's Premium video (English+Arabic) is posted below, highlighing the....nbsp;....The combination of Trump's leaving the hospital and increased odds of the....Meetings between Mnuchin and Pelosi will continue Tuesday after an exchange of....It remains challenging to handicap the odds of a deal and the likelihood it....5-$2...2 trillion in additional spending, with the growth/inflation impulse behind it...The move was led by long-dated bonds as 30-year yield rose 8 bps to above the....At 1...58%, 30s also crossed the 200-day moving average for the first time since March....A number of yen crosses also made significant moves and breaks of the....Beyond the guessing game on stimulus, the general willingness of both parties....Polls continue to show a moderate-to-high likelihood of a blue wave and that....Monday was a taste of the price action that will persist in financial markets..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Boris’ Deadline Looms & Four in One

    by Adam Button | Oct 14, 2020 23:52
    Boris’ Deadline Looms & Four in One Chart Sterling rebounded Wednesday on signs that negotiations will continue but the....It looks like Brexit talks will extend til the last week of December...The pound was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...US initial jobless claims are due up next...Four (4) new Premium trades were posted today for Premium subscribers, including....Below is some input from members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group following....nbsp;....A call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen didn't achieve any....Johnson lamented the lack of progress afterward and said he had to “....Von der Leyen said that they're working on a deal but not at any price...Johnson is approaching his deadline for talks and will make a decision Thursday....Sterling bounced on reports suggesting his aides will tell him that a deal is....Both sides believe that early November is the real deadline, according to....This is a critical point in negotiations but – as we often write –....Boris is well-known for playing games of brinksmanship and that's how he got....No doubt he will do the same this time and that will entail stubbornness...The EU will surely have seen this though and could dig in, leading to a messy....In all likelihood, a deal is eventually made but like in the US election, the....In terms of the US economy, we get back to some data on Thursday with the Empire....Claims are expected to remain sky high at 825K, a small dip from 840K last week.

  • Intraday Market Thought: How about the Euro Index?

    by Adam Button | Dec 10, 2020 14:26
    How about the Euro Index? Chart ًYou've all heard of the USD Index...Here is the euro index below...Euro firms above the 1...2100 after raising the PEPP by EUR 500 bn by 9 mths, while revising the....Boosting the the program of ultra cheap loans is seen as a positive for the....nbsp; Hopes for a breakthrough in Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels were....Sterling is off its lows, recoverying from earlier slump as EU/UK leaders gave....Indices resume their selloff, led by tech after the US govt's lawsuit on....Ashraf issued a new trade yesterday (currently 80 pips in the green) and will....nbsp;....A three-hour dinner between Johnson and von der Leyen proved to be fruitless on....They promised a decision about whether to continue on Sunday, which sets the FX....The same problems on fishing, enforcement and level playing field....For its part, the market remains optimistic...Even after a sharp fall on the meeting headlines, sterling later recovered most....Meanwhile the global theme continues to be strong economic data...UK October GDP cruised past expectations of a flat reading with a 0...4% gain...Industrial production was also firmer in the month.
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