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Results: 751 to 760 of 1,000
Results: 751 to 760 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Picking Tops or Following Through?
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 4, 2020 22:47
What is more difficult? To short a market at its the highs, or short it....0% without getting squeezed? We heard all of sorts of technical,....Breadth was too low (rally was concentrated among few companies)....But the bulls also had their arguments—sector rotation was replacing the....We initially went short the NASDAQ last week and got burned, then did so with....So what did you do in Thursday evening? ....Here is the OPEN-ACCESS link for our Premium video, making the case for a new....And below are a few comments from members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen Crosses, Yields Push, Stimulus Awaited
by Adam Button | Oct 6, 2020 17:18
Powell speech came and went and indices remain in tight ranges, following a....Rising Treasury yields and yen crosses highlighted rising appetite for stimulus....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged...The ECB faces a tough test on what to do next...This week's Premium video (English+Arabic) is posted below, highlighing the....nbsp;....The combination of Trump's leaving the hospital and increased odds of the....Meetings between Mnuchin and Pelosi will continue Tuesday after an exchange of....It remains challenging to handicap the odds of a deal and the likelihood it....5-$2...2 trillion in additional spending, with the growth/inflation impulse behind it...The move was led by long-dated bonds as 30-year yield rose 8 bps to above the....At 1...58%, 30s also crossed the 200-day moving average for the first time since March....A number of yen crosses also made significant moves and breaks of the....Beyond the guessing game on stimulus, the general willingness of both parties....Polls continue to show a moderate-to-high likelihood of a blue wave and that....Monday was a taste of the price action that will persist in financial markets..
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Intraday Market Thought: Boris’ Deadline Looms & Four in One
by Adam Button | Oct 14, 2020 23:52
Sterling rebounded Wednesday on signs that negotiations will continue but the....It looks like Brexit talks will extend til the last week of December...The pound was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...US initial jobless claims are due up next...Four (4) new Premium trades were posted today for Premium subscribers, including....Below is some input from members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group following....nbsp;....A call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen didn't achieve any....Johnson lamented the lack of progress afterward and said he had to “....Von der Leyen said that they're working on a deal but not at any price...Johnson is approaching his deadline for talks and will make a decision Thursday....Sterling bounced on reports suggesting his aides will tell him that a deal is....Both sides believe that early November is the real deadline, according to....This is a critical point in negotiations but – as we often write –....Boris is well-known for playing games of brinksmanship and that's how he got....No doubt he will do the same this time and that will entail stubbornness...The EU will surely have seen this though and could dig in, leading to a messy....In all likelihood, a deal is eventually made but like in the US election, the....In terms of the US economy, we get back to some data on Thursday with the Empire....Claims are expected to remain sky high at 825K, a small dip from 840K last week.
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Intraday Market Thought: How about the Euro Index?
by Adam Button | Dec 10, 2020 14:26
ًYou've all heard of the USD Index...Here is the euro index below...Euro firms above the 1...2100 after raising the PEPP by EUR 500 bn by 9 mths, while revising the....Boosting the the program of ultra cheap loans is seen as a positive for the....nbsp; Hopes for a breakthrough in Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels were....Sterling is off its lows, recoverying from earlier slump as EU/UK leaders gave....Indices resume their selloff, led by tech after the US govt's lawsuit on....Ashraf issued a new trade yesterday (currently 80 pips in the green) and will....nbsp;....A three-hour dinner between Johnson and von der Leyen proved to be fruitless on....They promised a decision about whether to continue on Sunday, which sets the FX....The same problems on fishing, enforcement and level playing field....For its part, the market remains optimistic...Even after a sharp fall on the meeting headlines, sterling later recovered most....Meanwhile the global theme continues to be strong economic data...UK October GDP cruised past expectations of a flat reading with a 0...4% gain...Industrial production was also firmer in the month.
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Intraday Market Thought: Inflation Next, Yen Crosses & Make a Move
by Adam Button | May 28, 2021 12:54A fresh wave of yen selling has sparked a resurgence in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...The US PCE report is due up next (more details below)....Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group he's going long USDJPT at 108...90s, targetting 109...70s...He also indicated shorting NZD vs USD and GBP...nbsp;This will be a very busy & volatile session ahead...Be careful...nbsp;....GBP/JPY is flirting with the 2018 high after a strong climb on Thursday...If it can breach that level, the pair would touch the highest since July 2016...GBP/JPY steadily climbed alongside stocks from late 2020 through February....It has now broken out this month and and that's a positive sign for it and....EUR/JPY also made a move on Thursday to the highest since Feb 2018 and has risen....Even CHF/JPY is surging and that price action indicates that the yen is quickly....At the same time, we can't rule out that dollar liquidity issues and month end....US economic data offered little market direction but was indicative of an....Initial jobless claims fell to 406K from 425K expected and will continue to fall....Core durable goods orders were also strong, rising 2...3% compared to 1...0% expected...Finally, the second look at Q1 GDP was in line with the +6...4% consensus but the underlying numbers were a reminder that inventory....Data will certainly be in focus on Friday, with the US PCE report out at....The Fed's preferred measure of inflation – PCE core – is forecast to....9% from 1...8% and if it does, that will be the highest since 1994 in something that's....However so long as it's near consensus, the market will shrug that off...Moreover, we've highlighted how high prints have led to USD spikes that are....Note that Monday is a holiday in the US and that markets will thin out early.. -
Intraday Market Thought: PCE Cools the Inflation Narrative
by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2021 14:41USD regains strength after Friday's post-PCE slide...A series of inflation surprises left the market on edge ahead of the May PCE....All currencies are down vs the dollar, except for GBP...CFTC positioning emphasized the short-squeeze after the FOMC meeting...Make sure to watch & rewatch Ashraf's video on the tapering dynamics....nbsp; ....PCE core inflation rose 3...4% in May, as expected...The headline number at 3...9% also matched estimates...The numbers come after CPI data hit 5% in a big surprise...The market eventually digested (and shrugged off) the high CPI reading but....The dollar sold off on the headlines but hours later it recovered, in part to a....The bond market continues to be a key barometer...It's the single-most sensitive asset class to inflation and the Fed...With 10s at 1...52% the message about transitory inflation is clear but it will be tested....The new week starts with a strong rally in crypto, led by a 10% weekend jump in....The resolve of the bulls this month despite a battering has been impressive...CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +89K vs +118K prior...GBP +18K vs +32K prior...JPY -53K vs -47K prior...CHF +14K vs +9K prior...CAD +43K vs +44K prior...AUD -17K vs -18K prior...NZD +3K vs +3K prior...This is the first look we have at post-Fed positioning and it highlights the....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Respite or Reversal?
by Adam Button | Jul 21, 2021 14:48
A 2nd day of sharp rebound in US treasury yields continues to command the....The recovery in bond yields off their 100-WMA raises as many questions as it....The below chart shows familiar technical paramters, with yields remaining....nbsp;JPY is down across the board, while JPY is only higher vs JPY as CAD and....nbsp;....Buying the dips in risk assets has been the single best trade of the past 20....Early in New York trading on Tuesday it looked like another spill could be in....13% from 1...21% just hours earlier but sentiment shifted with equities recouping all of....One of the triggers for the initial retreat were declines in US....Both were shy of estimates and that was an unwanted negative nudge...Whether the rebound marks an interim or lasting bottom in sentiment will depend....The UK case and hospitalization numbers will be particularly key in the days....There are early positive signs elsewhere with cases in the Netherlands ebbing....In hard-hit Indonesia, cases are also leveling off at a high level...With the market now focused on covid, there will be an ebb and flow in....A wild card could be a more-cautious turn from central bankers...Any hint at an easier stance will be a green light for commodity currencies,....On the technical side, we note the continued breakdown in cable and the....4250 with a measured target at 1...31...Even in the rebound in sentiment, GBP/USD struggled to get traction...After four days of selling, an inability to muster a stronger bounce on....EURGBP continues to show improving technicals...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Consumer Questions & Crucial Monthly Close
by Adam Button | Aug 31, 2021 22:43As we anticipated, US consumer confidence badly missed expectations on....Despite that, the dollar pared earlier losses as month-end flows played into....Higher than expected Eurozone CPI did not go unnoticed by bund traders...Wednesday's highlights include US ADP report and ISM manufacturing...Ashraf posted a video today of the live market reaction to the miss in consumer....nbsp; Ashraf shared this tweet below and will fill in his WhatsApp BG with this....nbsp; ....US consumer confidence fell to the lowest since February on Tuesday in a....As we highlighted on Monday, drops in the index are highly correlated with the....Confidence fell to 113...8 from 129...1; much lower than the 124...0 consensus...The miss weighed on the dollar initially but month-end flows led to broad USD....In the days ahead, fixing demand will be long gone but questions about the....The assumption rate coming out of the pandemic was that a high savings rate....That paradigm could materially slow H2 growth and keep the Fed off balance...At some point it will weigh more heavily on the dollar but the timing on that....For now, the market is focused on employment and inflation...We'll get two inputs on that Wednesday with the release of ADP employment and....The current focus on jobs will make ADP the highlight (despite its flaws) but.. -
Intraday Market Thought: What Will the BoC Signal?
by Adam Button | Sep 8, 2021 14:09Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision is a bit of a placeholder because they were....There is UNLIKLEY to be a surprise as there is no press conference scheduled....The US dollar is stronger across the board except against NZD and JPY...Loonie is again the weakest, but is stabilizing...A US 10-year auction could also be market moving later today...nbsp;....The BOC has led markets to believe it will taper every second meeting; so....Nonetheless, this is an opportunity for Macklem to pre-emptively hint that a....However the reasons for doing that are outweighed by the reasons to wait and....The main negative developments since July have been the delta wave in the US....A major drag has come from slower housing sale activity and lower exports....At the same time, Canadian vaccination rates are high and the current reopening....Perhaps most importantly, Canada is two weeks away from an election and....The most likely outcome is that the BOC highlights renewed uncertainty but....rdquo;....Given Monday's dump in the loonie, that might be enough to draw a line under the....Note though that Macklem will also speak on Thursday and could fine-tune the....In the bigger picture, the Canadian dollar was caught in a broad USD bid on....There are a number of theories on why yields have pushed up since non-farm....58B three-year notes were sold Tuesday, $38B of 10s are coming Wednesday and....If demand is strong, the trend higher in yields could be short-lived...nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Here Comes the ECB
by Adam Button | Sep 9, 2021 11:46
It seems that by dubbing its QE program as the Pandemic Emergency Purchase....Will that occur as soon as today as the program winds down by next March...Will the signal occur today? The ECB announcement is at 12:45 pm London....Not only the Eurozone economy has shown notable improvements, but inflation has....The PEPP currently runs at EUR 80 bn monthly...We expect the ECB to ugrade its growth and inflation projections, which should....19...Ashraf tells me Lagarde will emphasise the economic upgrades rather than signal....nbsp;....What Lagarde may try to engineer is a more-flexible APP program to fill in the....Such strategy risks a multitude of communications errors, that could boost....nbsp;....Today's meeting is particularly fraught because ECB communication is....A further problem is brewing around year end when the Fed tapers its purchases...That will push up global yields and tighten European financial conditions...It may put the ECB back in a position to ease further, something that could....For now though, the combination of inflation, economic growth and the....1940/50 should be back in play...nbsp; Lagarde will be cognizant of that though and may try to balance it..
