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Results: 891 to 900 of 1,000
Results: 891 to 900 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Shale & Powell Resistance Eyed
by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2019 12:40
USD is up across the board, while GBP is at new 2019 lows on fears of no-deal....An important US data report is due shortly, followed by several Fed....Will Powell's speech present new resistance to the US dollar as it did....nbsp; CFTC data showed an increasingly crowded GBP trade...Two new Premium trades are set to be issued this week...WTI crude rose to the highest since late-May last week as it climbed above $60...There was some concern heading into the weekend with Hurricane Barry threatening....It ultimately made landfall as a Category 1 stor and underperformed most....The start of hurricane season is a fresh reminder that old rules for US crude....A decade ago, the US imported roughly 5 million barrels per day of crude via the....But due to the shale revolution, Gulf net exports are now roughly zero...That could leave gluts points and drive down prices, especially if refineries....At the same time, there will still be offshore production shutdowns so global....Retail Sales, Powell et al....Looking ahead, Tuesday's release of US June retail sales (control group) is....3% rise from a downward revised 0...4%....Fed Vice chair Bowman speaks 15 mins before retail sales, followed by Fed....Chicago Fed's Evans will speak 2...5 hr later...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -36K vs -31K prior...GBP -73K vs -64K prior...JPY -4K vs -1K prior...CHF -10K vs -11K prior...CAD +9K vs +6K prior...AUD -54K vs -58K prior...NZD -22K vs -24K prior....The general theme over the past few weeks is US dollar longs headed to the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Deal Mirage, Earnings Unease & G7 Chatter
by Adam Button | Jul 18, 2019 10:24
A fresh report on Wednesday saying the US-China have failed to make any....Moreover, there is a growing sense that the conditions aren't right for a....GBP is the strongest currency on a combination of stronger than expected UK....See the notes on Alcoa, CSX and Netflix below...Euro lost ground on a report stating that the ECB may revamp its approach to....Both of this week's newly added Premium trades are in the green...There are currently 6 trades open...The Premium Video titled "The Short Backed by All 3 Metrics" is out...A WSJ report said US-China talks are hung-up on executing the US pledge to....Once that's sorted out, China has pledged to buy US agricultural goods...The problem is the White House is struggling to decide what to allow the....The inability to make any concrete progress after several indications of an....Equity markets stumbled Tuesday after initial comments from Trump expressing....The economic backdrop also makes it tough to envision a deal...The US reopened talks in December after a 20% drop in stock markets; now they&....There are also signs that China's economy is surviving a pivot towards....G7 FX Chatter....Here is a tweet from Ashraf on the G7 meeting in Paris:....In other economic news, the Fed's Beige Book underscored a solid US....Commentary highlighted unease about trade but a 'generally positive'....Earnings continue to paint a slightly different picture...Railway operator CSX warned of softening demand Tuesday and aluminum giant Alcoa....Netflix tumbled 13% on news that it lost 130K US clients.
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Intraday Market Thought: From Shy BoJ to Actionable Fed
by Adam Button | Jul 30, 2019 23:16The yen edged higher on Tuesday after Kuroda refrained from taking any firm....JPY was the top performer on Tuesday while the pound lagged again...The FOMC decision is the big event on Wednesday, but Canadian GDP and US ADP....Trade positioning ahead of the Fed decision is covered in the video for....The BOJ didn't alter its guidance about keep easy policy at least through spring....Kuroda also avoided any strong hints at action...Instead he emphasized a shift in communication to say the bank now....It's a minor change and especially insignificant compared to the big turns....It led to a modest dip in USD/JPY but was largely ignored as the market dials....Ashraf expects a retest of 108...90s before a gradual drop towards 107...80s...The bigger move was once again in the pound as it hit a new two-year low in....2150...Meetings between Ireland and the UK solved nothing with Johnson insisting....Another trend was the divergence in AUD/CAD as oil prices and the proximity to....In contrast, the Australian dollar fell for the eighth consecutive day and is....6832 – a level that's doubly important because it was also the 2016....The FOMC decision follows next, setting the tone for the remainder of the week,....The Fed recieved further indications that the economy is solid as consumer....7 compared to 125...0...That's the third-best reading this century...The PCE report was largely in line with expectations but inflation was a touch....There are some risks before the FOMC with the ADP report expected to show....Canada's May GDP is also on the agenda with a 0...1% rise expected. -
Intraday Market Thought: The Week that was & Dashboard
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2019 18:51What started as a week of gloom and doom in the markets, ended with a positive....This was supposed to be a quiet week, when central bankers are on holiday and....But from the way the last exchanges occured, the US-China trade war is far....China is growing more vocal and its tack is changing as Ashraf pointed out here...nbsp; More on this from is time last week, Ashraf issued a Premium short in....The trade was closed with a 700-pt gain...No longs will be issued today despite the index being up 300 pts...There are two existing trades for now...We'll return next week with the FOMC minutes of the last meeting and the Fed&....Meanwhile, GBP is the strongest currency of the day and the week, in a week that....More on the market dahsboard below...Reconciling Positive Retail Data w/ Market Turmoil....The data highlight of the week was the 1...0% rise in US retail sales (control group) compared to +0...4% expected...That makes the first seven months of 2019 the strongest seven-month period....The strength in retail was underscored by by quarterly results and commentary....That data is in wild contrast to financial market moves this month...Treasury yields fell to fresh lows with 10-year notes breaking 1...50% and 30-year bonds falling below 2%....Both have fallen 50 basis points since the start of the month – a sign of....How do we reconcile robust consumer data with violent market moves? For one, the....This is especially the case for a late-cycle economy, when slowdown in....Said differently, "labour markets are always the last to know"....It's also looking abroad to the eurozone, which is increasingly....On Thursday, the ECB's Rehn told the WSJ that at this point the central bank....The market is now pricing a better-than-even chance of a 20 bps cut (rather than....Market Dashboard....Here are some notable market notes sent to me by Ashraf...Despite today's gains:....US indices posted the 3rd straight weekly decline, the longest since May...US 10 year yield fell 11% on the week, the biggest decline since summer 2012...VIX remains well over its 200-DMA of 17...00 and all 3 meain weekly MAs...GBPUSD has its strongest week in 7 weeks. -
Intraday Market Thought: China RRR Cut Sustain Rallies, NFP & Powell Next
by Adam Button | Sep 6, 2019 12:44Risk-on sentiment continues to triumph, lifting stocks and bond yields, while....Today's announcement from China cutting banks reserve requirement ratio....There are three Premium trades currently in progress...فيديو للمشتركين) مرجعية ٢٠٠٧، ٢٠١١، ٢٠١٥ و ٢٠١٩...The People's Bank of China announced today it would cut the reserve....The magnitude of the rate cut was larger than most analysts had expected ....The S&P 500 broke out of its box to the best levels in a month at 2985....A few things stood out from this rally...One was that Treasury yields climbed alongside stocks...Many times last month it was stocks moving higher alone...Cyclical stocks are also accelerating their gains, even European automakers-....Yen crosses made similar breaks with AUD/JPY and USD/JPY both rising to a one-....Commodity markets reversed recent moves as gold sank more than $30 to $1518 and....On the fundamental side there were some notable differences as well...A Chinese MOFCOM spokesman highlighted that both sides would strive for....State mouthpiece Hu Xijin also noted a higher possibility of a breakthough...The lengthy timeline is also a notable development...I leaves a catalyst for bulls in place but also gives central banks a reason to....In terms of economic data, the US showed some improvement as ADP employment rose....4 compared to 54...0 consensus...Fundamentals will remain in focus on Friday with US and Canadian jobs reports....Non-farm payrolls are forecast at +160K...Note however that the report has missed the consensus 77% of the time in....While APD was strong, the employment component of the ISM services survey was....Powell's speech is at 12:30 Eastern, 17:30 London. -
Intraday Market Thought: Oil Tests Trump & Powell Resolve
by Adam Button | Sep 17, 2019 13:24
The latest rise in oil prices may jeopardize the already complicated....Yet, the US administration continues to send signals about reprisals against....US crude oil is currently trading at $62 (from an earlier $63...38), while Brent is at $68...10 (from $71...95 earlier)....CAD loses half of its gains as US equity futures head into the red...EUR is the strongest of the day after better than expected ZEW sentiment....Data points on Tuesday include US industrial production and homebuilder....The Premium JPY trade was stopped out, leaving only 1 trade in progress...A new trade shall be issued ahead of the US opening bell...Oil finished Monday with an astounding $8 rally in the largest percentage climb....The attack on Iran sets in motion a wild amount of possibilities, including war....Trump's response has pointed the finger at Iran but stopped short of....So far in his Presidency, he has largely ignored the drums of war and his firing....Not to mention the fact, Congress is will unlikely authorise a strike on Iran...Feel free to participate in this open discussion about oil, Trump, Fed &....This time, he's hinting that action may be in order but his tepid response....That may mean a further escalation down the line but if so, the market will....On that front, reports vary widely with some suggesting nearly all of it could....Oil Complicates Fed Odds....Expect oil headlines to be a major factor in the days ahead but the Fed....The odds of a cut fell to 95% from 100% a week ago...The oil jump complicates the decision because it creates a series of pros and....Higher gasoline prices for consumers and geopolitical uncertainty are negatives,....Ultimately, it's more of a reason to cut 25 bps as anticipated while....Also, pay attention to the dissent and whether St Louis Fed president Bullard..
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Intraday Market Thought: One Month Until Brexit
by Adam Button | Sep 30, 2019 13:10
Euro tumbles below 1...09 amid softer than expected German CPI...Global indices are recovering from Friday's late session selloff after....Weekend comments from the DUP hinted at progress on Brexit as Johnson faces the....The Canadian dollar was the top performer last week while the pound....Loonie outperformance came at the same time as CAD-longs were racing to the....Since the start of the Asia Monday session, all currencies are down against....nbsp; A 5th Premium trade was opened on Friday...There are currently 3 trades in indices, 1 in commodities and 1 in FX...nbsp;....The ebb and flow of Brexit news has completely dominated GBP trading trading....Stepping back, it's left semi-permanent investment gaps in the UK and....The longer it lasts, the larger the risk that there is a structural impairment....Currently, the bigger question is whether there is a political impairment....Boris Johnson has held steadfast in promises to take the UK out of the EU on....One glimmer of hope came on Sunday from the DUP's Foster who said there has....If the DUP can be convinced of supporting a deal, it would bring many....As for the broader deal, Michael Gove on Sunday said it would have to be....That's a tall order given the tight deadline...He also alluded to the prospect of the EU having to negotiate with yet-another....Elsewhere, note that China Monday was the only trading day this week in China...The market is closed through the weekend for holidays...That could bring calm to markets but festivities will include many speeches....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -61K vs -69K prior...GBP -81K vs -86K prior...JPY +13K vs +24K prior...CHF -11K vs -5K prior...CAD +5K vs +20K prior...AUD -47K vs -54K prior...NZD -36K vs -30K prior....The erosion in oil prices following the Saudi spike and the looming election....In terms of overall moves, the dollar bid strengthened modestly but there as....That underscores the broad wait-and-see theme in markets.
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Intraday Market Thought: Trudeau Wins, Brexit Threats Mount
by Adam Button | Oct 22, 2019 14:23
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held onto power Monday but his party was....Later in the day, CAD traders turn focus to the BoC's business survey (15:30....nbsp; GBP dropped by a full cent on reports the govt theratened to pull the....US Sep existing home sales are due next, exp -0...7% from +1...3%....All 3 Premium Insights trades currently in the green...A new trade will be released before the London close...Care to guess the analog mystery chart below?....Canada's governing Liberals will fall about a dozen seats short of the....Trudeau will now try to govern with a minority and he's likely to cobble....This also means none of the opposition parties will have any appetite to bring....Trudeau is safe for at least 12 months and has a good chance of finishing the 4-....The market reaction so far has shown that Canada is one of the dwindling....There are true differences in the parties but nothing so meaningful that....One exception is oil and gas...The market will be watching closely for signs on how a minority government will....In the short term there are some downside risks for the Canadian dollar....Downing Street Threatens Elections ....GBP traders were fixated on parliament as it holds a first vote on the Brexit....Barring any fresh last-minute amendments or changes, the vote will take place at....The latest indications show that Johnson may have a majority by fewer than 5..
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Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Extension and China Watch
by Adam Button | Oct 28, 2019 14:30The S&P500 has hit new all time high of 3041, while the DOW30 is 200 pts....All indications suggest the EU will extend the Brexit deadline to January 31....GBP is the day's best perfomer as cable hits 1...2877...Signals from a high level political meeting in China this week could have....This week's major events include: Johnson's efforts to call for an....France has been grandstanding about blocking the Brexit extension but Macron....A draft declaration cited by reporters extends the deadline to Jan 31 but....The EU meeting will take place shortly before a planned vote in UK parliament....That effort appears as though it will fall short of the necessary two-thirds....If it all unfolds as expected, we will find out if Johnson will redouble....A deal push would be more-positive for the pound...On the weekend, data showed the extent of the slowdown in the Chinese economy...Industrial profits were down 5...3% y/y in September, an acceleration from -2...0% in August...Reports on Friday indicated that the text of the US-China deal is largely....This week, risks may be on Beijing's side with the annual four—day....This is largely a political meeting and a draft communique focused on casting....That sounds like it's more of a defensive posture and it's a closed door....The weekend surge in cryptocurrencies has been attribute to Beijing'....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -51K vs -75K prior...GBP -52K vs -73K prior...JPY -18K vs +7K prior...CHF -11K vs -13K prior...CAD +33K vs +13K prior...AUD -48K vs -48K prior...NZD -40K vs -40K prior....Pound shorts had been stubbornly hanging in over the past two weeks but cracks....Still, there is plenty of space for a squeeze...The other standout is the contrast between the Canadian dollar and the....It's tough for them to diverge for any significant period of time. -
Intraday Market Thought: Biggest USD Drop in 21 Months, NFP Next
by Adam Button | Nov 1, 2019 11:34
The US dollar continued its post-Fed slide on Thursday as economic data....On the day the yen was the top performer while the US dollar lagged, registering....Non-farm payrolls are due up next (more below)....Renewed doubts with the continuity of the US-China talks are weighing on....Each of the 4 existing premium trades is currently in the green...إدارة الصفقات الخمسة (فيديو للمشتركين)....Dueling forces worked to pull USD/JPY notably weaker on Thursday...The Fed pause and accompanying message highlights that it will take a '....Ostensibly that's positive for the dollar but it's negative for risk....The problem was highlighted in a couple reports on Thursday...The PCE report showed spending at +0...2% compared to +0...3% expected and inflation numbers also slightly softer...The Chicago PMI also fell to 43...2 from 47...1...That was probably a result of the now-ended GM strike but the numbers both....At the same time, the long-term message from the Fed was that hikes are off the....That sent Treasury yields decidedly lower and highlights that US yield....The next move will hinge on Friday's jobs report...Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise a modest 85K, down from 136K in September...After the Chicago PMI, there are growing worries that the auto strike could lead....If so, expect it to be a short-lived dip because those jobs have returned...A look at the October monthly moves:....The pound led the way with a 5% rally against the dollar and 5...7% against the yen (which was the laggard)....It was the worst monthly decline for the USD in over 20 months...In the stock market, most of the world put up gains in the 2-4% range including....The FTSE 100 was slightly lower but that's a side effect of currency....Gold was up modestly and entirely due to the rally on Wed-Thurs.
