Intraday Market Thoughts

CAD Shrugs Off NAFTA Setback

by Adam Button
Apr 9, 2018 23:36

The Canadian dollar demonstrated how the reaction to bad news if often more telling than good news. The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged. The Asia-Pacific data calendar is light but a speech from Xi and developments in Syria will be watched closely.  The English Premium video will be posted & sent in early Tuesday Asia trade.

حان وقت تقلب الديناميات (فيديو للمشتركين)

We often write about how markets respond to news is the most important indicator. Another example was the Canadian dollar on Monday after various reports that a positive announcement on NAFTA isn't coming this week.

The loonie fell at first, boosting USD/CAD 60 pips to 1.2820 but that move was erased in 12 hours. Later, the Bank of Canada released its latest survey of businesses. It showed rising inflation expectations and a solid underlying economy. From there, the pair crumbled as low as 1.2685. The decline came in a backdrop of broad US dollar weakness. There wasn't a particular catalyst for the soft USD but the situation in Syria sparked some worries with Trump promising a response in the day ahead.

Russian markets were hit hard by US sanctions and Trump's rhetoric named Putin in an eyebrow-raising change of tactics from the President. The ruble was beaten up and Russian bonds were battered. Watch to see if the selling spreads to other risk assets in the day ahead.

The euro rose despite words of caution on inflation from several top ECB policymakers, including Draghi. But the latter's optimism on growth shadowed concerns of trade wars.

Looking ahead, Xi's speech at the Boao remains a potential flashpoint for the week. Jitters about the talk may have contributed to the late slump in US stocks, along with the FBI raid on Trump's personal lawyer.


Latest IMTs