Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Ashraf
feels like below 3045 is a back to sell mode not 3100... :)
my "fortune" is gold coins gold bullions and EUROs so I AM worried ...ya know
sub
as said I thought EURUSD will cross 133 and have a long position but it doesn't
below 1.31 we are back in sell mode and I am break even with long.
There is a 50/50 chance that Ezone will not accept IMF , namely Germany and France will but the PIIGS will not
now that I have the CAN$ 389 currency strength meter running it shows that USD and EUR are no longer diverging that means IMF is priced in.
So no 1,33
Further US data employment shows relief while EZone employment deteriorates ( overall)
calling 3180 top for the week and resumption of downtrend? hmmmm...
so no chance of going back above 3300 for Euro b4 next leg down? i see good possibility to test 3380/3400 b4 down...
i see strong support 2850/2900 level(if ever we see a dip first)... don't really see it falling below it at least for now... should see some substantial bounce from that level... unless we see a weekly close below 2900 level...
let's see if you could keep it rolling.... :)
I agree on the fact that EU banks are in worse shape than the US in terms of capital. Back in Q4 2008 we was discussing that issue and thought the problem will be visible sooner than it really was. Im not much of a doom&gloom person, but there are even FaceBook activities that call people to go run o their banks ;)
ashraf:
tnx for early warning!
Neither does PIMCO.
But the subsequent reaction turned EUR-negative as purchases are a form of further easing, which is always negative for currencies--especially in the case of an about-turn by the ECB on the subject.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MONTHLY REVERSAL in EUR (downward) and USDX (upward) bears historical proportions. The last time the USDX has shown a similar monthly rebound (+4% at the end of a multi-month decline) was in December 2009 (part of a +20% rally in USD) and January 2005 (part of a 14% rally in USD).
EURUSD is seen remaining capped at $1.3180 before retreating gradually towards $1.2920 and $1.2770. GBPUSD faces $1.5640s as the intermediate resistance, a break of which could retest $1.5760. USDJPY regains 84 mainly on broadening JPY weakness as risk appetite improves across the board. Medium term outlook remains in favour of prolonged gains towards 87.20.
Ashraf
I've been saying here only the FED can help...ok the IMF is worse than the FED .
I'm not so much concerned about USA at his point. I'm trying to figure out what are the implications for the PIIGS and their bonds. In other words, what are the medium-term implication for EURUSD?
Does it mean, that to have more bailout money is positive for the EuroZone because the probability of bailout money shortage is lower? Or does it mean that the Germany will be less reluctant to help if there is the option to get money from IMF if a more help is needed for example in case of Portugal or Spain headwinds? Still not so clear.
-------------8<--------------
NEW YORK, Dec 1 (IFR) - Reuters News revealed that the US Administration will back an increase in the IMF standby facility for the European states that they back-stopped last May when the Euro debt crisis was on the verge of a meltdown. According to the article a U.S. official was quoted "There are obviously some severe market problems. In May, it was Greece. This is Ireland and Portugal. If there is contagion that's a huge problem for the global economy."
Earlier in the day we heard that a US Treasury envoy is en-route to Europe for talks. Now the government is suggesting that the US would support an increase in the IMF's portion of the E250bn EFSF "It is up to the Europeans. We will certainly support using the IMF in these circumstances." EUR/USD soared 120 pips on the story but has ebbed into a 1.3135/55 sideways chop.
-------------8<--------------
So... how much will this change the fundamental landscape. Looking at the market reaction, it could be a game changer.