What's Next for Aussie?

"fundamental storys out there that could tank the aud".... I'd love to see some healthy discussion on this. It seems AUD fundamentals, are less dependent from within, rather only vulnerable from external factors, as it is significantly linked to fundamentals of 1) Chinese economy, and specifically China's appetite to import from Aust. 2) Gold. Otherwise, the domestic macro seems to rock solid and continues to grow, with sustained stimulation from the government. The stronger AUD even means more people will be spending xmas holidays overseas, adding to the increased +ve consumer sentiments. Exactly same time last year, AUDUSD was tanking together with EURUSD despite gold staying high. What would tank the AUD? China! China is the only thing significant factor to move the needle. Picking holes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy and its demand for resources in my view extremely hard...

i agree rezz with what ur saying about the big guys placing a false sence of further gains on newbies an when they convince enough of them they will change gears.plus im curious to see if the longs will leave there positions the way they are going into the holidays ..lots can happen while markets are closed an im not sure if there willing to leave there money on the table(i haven;t looked yet to see about the holiday trading hours for tomor if its a full or half day)but it will be awefully brave for them to leave there money on the table @ these new highs..but my hands are kinda full with my audusd trade but im tempted to short oil i do have lots of powder left but i think its best to sit still for a moment..ok gl every1:)

looking at the last 3-4 days in the AUD/USD I wouldnt take a close above parity today as confirmation of the upmove, because of low volume. My take is support is mainly coming from faster drops in EUR/AUD than EUR/USD which means stop losses triggering in long EUR/AUD, plus those in AUD/USD are what is keeping AUD/USD floating higher SLOWLY. If anything my cynic view is that the big traders are looking for such an event to happen, so that people who were short earlier/or on low margins give up their hands, plus this false confirmation leads to many "new entrants" who may be falsely looking for the move higher. These new amateur buyers are what the big guys are waiting for, so they unload their long positions or else to take enough new short positions while the amateur buying is heavy, before they let it drop. Thats the cynical view, and we'll see how it plays out.

@forextrader..i would never cry or blame any1 for my trade but it would be nice for other more experience traders to talk about the other side of the trade that might disagree with ashraf point of veiw example :ashraf said h&s is still in play after it failed to hold parady but dave concidered the pattern to be very sloppy an he wasn;t interested in it .that would of been nice to know at that time when ashraf called up 9750 to help weigh the risk-reward(but deffin not daveo responsibility to inform me or any1 of what he thinks)but i was thinkn last night after daveo mentioned it why ashraf would not come to a similar conclusion.i guess every trader sees differ thing from the next trader.but in no way am i blaming any1 ior crying:) .an i think this trade will eventually work out .i look at aud like the cad if it remains too strong its bad for there economy so eventually something will happen an it will correct back down.but iam a lil surprised with the latest comments outta north an south korea that it hasn;t pulled back combined with the softening in gold as well(not much but still a lil softer)..any ways im just a newbie an theres prob alot of newbies on his site who really value u guys experience,an i don;t want free advice or entry or exits prices i really want to learn an understand my trades an become a better trader.at some point every1 is a begginer an needs a lil help --anyways thanks to every1 who helps an contributes in a pos+ way an hopfully 2011 is just as good as 2010..happy holiday :) pzz

The more I read here, we may see AUDUSD pushed higher to catch stop-losses esp during this thin volume period. Let's see where AUDUSD closes NY close... Perhaps offers above 1.01xx be more interesting ...