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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 28, 2009 15:40
Comments: 129
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves

Soaring yields give no choice to the Fed but to increase the quantity of bond purchases at the expense of the dollar. Speculative Forex positions agree.
 
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 16:42
ashraf nice commentary on bnn today
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 15:09
"Finally USD technically in over sold territory at the moment, and any farther decline is limited"

Forextrader ,I am with you on this point and believe that once we get a technical sell signal in equities the dollar could rise by at least 5% from current levels. I am anticipating that this will occur within the next month.
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 12:52
Hey, guys
I hope your long USD position will be good......because I am waiting for the chance to short USD again....just like yesterday.

Cheers
forextrader
vologda, Russia
Posts: 127
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 12:11
People are bearish dollar for very will known reasons, risk appetite, expanding monetary policy. Sovereign risk.,,But they also have to look at the other side of the coin

1) Most central banks are very caution about the strength of there currencies ( i.e Canada last week, New Zealand yesterday and ECB,,ect)
2) There is no sign of US investors fleeing the US for emerging market as in between (2004-2007)
3) I still think there is value in other US asset such as equity and corporate bond which attract US and foreign investors..
4) Finally USD technically in over sold territory at the moment, and any farther decline is limited.

For these reasons I am bullish USD
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 11:07
how can you be bullish for the pound at this stage with UK QE ( and its uncertainty), unstable and useless gorvernment, rising unemployment, huge risk to stock pullback and overvalued pound based on PPP $1.51/

btw, the euro seems to be overvalued by about 15% based on PPP. also looking rather bearish on the euro here.

it is no doubt as to why some sources expect sharp gains in dollar towards end of year. In the short term however dollar may look slightly bearish.
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 10:32
Hey, Ashraf
I just closed all my positions.......looking forward to see the US report now.

What do you think about today's market?? Waiting for the chance to long AUD and CAD again.

By the way.....GBP is so strong......I personally very bearish GBP........


Best regards
Qin
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 8:57
Hey, Ashraf
I agree with your opinion, FED has to print more and more money to flow its market. And they are losing control now because the inflation.....

I think we may see the high inflation before we see the economy recovering.

Best regards
Qin
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 7:50
ashraf very good point. but what about issues in europe?
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 5:23
Ashraf , from a purely technical perspective one may argue that the 10 year T bonds are due for a significant downwards correction ,hence applying upwards pressure to their yield . I am wondering ,can the government prop up the treasuries indefinitely or for longer than one dares to care because otherwise it appears that yields will sooner or later begin to rise in earnest.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Jun 11, 2009 1:56
speculator, the Fed is nearing its endgame as far as controlling both end of the curves and they will have no choice but to step up purchases of treasuries beyond the current target of $300 bln. either THAT (which is USD negative) or allow yields to overshoot and kill off the economy.

Ashraf