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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 28, 2009 15:40
Comments: 129
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Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves

Soaring yields give no choice to the Fed but to increase the quantity of bond purchases at the expense of the dollar. Speculative Forex positions agree.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 7, 2009 14:25
taha, complex models and assumptions behind those numbers. Unemp rate is done via the "household survey" and payrolls is via "establishment survey". it is normal for unemployment to go UP and payrolls to go UP. Same thing happened back in 2006 and 2007 when unemployment did NOT rise and payrolls fell. there's major Dow resistance at 9,100, which could be tested, but i see it testing around 8,500. too early to tell from here.

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Jun 7, 2009 12:32
Hi Ashraf,
I can not understand which one is more important unempolyment rate , or , non farm payrolls ? . How are they calculate the unempolyment rate ? .
Your expectation for DOWJONES for this week , the key support and resistance .
Thank you .
Taha .
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 6, 2009 18:13
Gary, 1.1250 in USDCAD could become the next resistance but 1.12 was safe target last week given we were drifting at 1.10 earlier in the day.


Ashraf
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
15 years ago
Jun 6, 2009 17:28
here is that chart on dollar canada
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
15 years ago
Jun 6, 2009 17:26
hi Ashraf, dollar-canada rose to 1.12 like you predicted. you tallked about the top of the channel being at 1.12. the channel since april. my chart shows the channel resistance at 1.1250. do you see more increase next week? thanks

G
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 6, 2009 17:14
Ho, would make sense to short USDJPY, especially if japan takes profit on Monday after US retreat. We may see some stabilization in the dollar for a few days but not beyond that. see the chart attached



Ashraf
Ho
New York, United States
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Jun 6, 2009 14:28
Ashraf, 6/6/09 - Satursday

Today - Friday - 6/5/09 - the NFP figures caused US dollars up huge, USD/JPY close to 98+, Can we short USD/JPY at this junction, or will USD/JPY breaks up above 100+? Please advise. Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 6, 2009 13:07
spec, house prices are undoubtedly very important. But it's not the only factor in getting people to spend. capital and credit formation from banks into businesses is also key before hiring emerges, which is essential for household spending.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 22:33
ashraf, funds will probably flow into householders once real estate starts to rise as owners feel wealthier. this should improve consumption led by borrowing from banks. so my theory is we need a real estate turnaround to cause velocity of money to improve etc and cash feed into the real economy. but suppose this exactly happens, with rising yields there may not be an effect in broad indices as corporate earnings will rise (led by by househole consumption) to offset rising borrowing costs.

i think thats why house prices are such important economic measures. we need a turnaround there first for inflation to come about.
Ho
New York, United States
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Jun 5, 2009 22:19
Today the NFP figures caused US dollars up huge, USD/JPY close to 98+, Can we short USD/JPY at this junction, or will USD/JPY breaks up above 100+? Please advise. Thanks.
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