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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 13:54
Rob, and i know last week i was bearish Aussie but it keeps onbreaking out. HOWEVER, daily chart AUDUSD shows 3-day consolidation around 0.8620-30 and the disappointing data as well as stochastics are justifying a drop towards 0.8450. then have to reconsider 0.81.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 13:50
Hey Ashraf,

Glad you brought up the Dollar weakness coinciding with Yen strength - I certainly noticed that as well. Looks like we need some more significant damage in equities to see if the dollar resumes strength associated with risk aversion.
On that note, how do you feel about the AUD/USD? Are you still determining it because of the changes/interruptions in correlations of the dollar? Although AUD fundamentals have deteriorated as you've mentioned. I've been short, perhaps for too "long". I know you mentioned .8100 this month - has that changed. Thanks and enjoy the weekend Ashraf.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 13:14
According to Totals CEO crude is likely to rise to more than USD 145/BBL by 2014 as supplies struggle to meet rising demand. Says there is a risk of another oil crisis as explorers scale back spending plans and scrap projects.
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 11:40
I've said this before UK was a basket case at GBP/USD 1.35 and at 1.70 nothing funadamentally changed it is still a basket case but fundamentals don't explain rally from 1.35 and I never believed the argument that sterling would come out of crisis quicker than other economies because of QE.House price data is bs for the very reason as there is no consumer buying these are supposed to explain sterling's rally all I saw in the run up to 1.70 from 1.67 was traders who had access to information earlier than release running up the gbp and the herd chased .
rpats
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 11:14
Hey Spec,
wake up buddy... u've been bearish on sterling all the way from 1.62 levels(4 weeks back)... almost 500 pips... i would say its better to trade with the trend mate.

never good to get too emotional about your analysis mate... i know sterling looks weak but then what's the driver behind this upside??

I back sterling and EUR as long as equtiy markets look strong. still eyeing 1.7050 level on cable.



Good Luck
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 7:16
we will end the year about 10% lower in US/UK stocks which will bring sterling weakness and dollar strength. My highly valuable source indicates that targets on FTSE have been met and we can expect sidelined trending for a while followed by pullback. But this will not happen in September.

Furthermore as you mention ashraf, downside risks remain on sterling as it is fundamentally flawed. Sterling volatility remains high. I expect the dollar to run up in october when fed cease their QE. I will not discount more BoE QE.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 4:54
stone, the serling rally resulted from the BoE decision to NOT add extra QE and to NOT impose negative interest rates. But do NOT FORGET that the BoE ALREADY HAS QE into November as opposed to Fed's October or ECB's nonexistent program, so it is important to note that this downside risks remain for sterling. And also we should NOT forget about UK's fiscal deterioation which remains an immediate issue for the currency. And as you mentioned, the risk of further downside from equities-especially China. Having said, Id like to see where we close this week before making ideas about signals.

Ashraf
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 10, 2009 18:38
Ashraf with that boe decision would you say that GPB is now the most bullish currency of all over the next 2 months or could a chinese equities reversal bring it back down to GPB/JPY 148.60
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 10, 2009 18:07
Rob, we'd have to see a break above 153.60 to start off a new bull trend.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 10, 2009 18:03
Hey Ashraf,

Would you say that GBP/JPY has broken through it's declining trend-line and is heading up? I'm looking at the daily chart. Are you still sticking with GBP bearishness despite the BoE decision today? Thanks
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