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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
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asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 25, 2009 1:08
Spec,

Can you kindly elaborate on your short-term oil price forecast? Because I totally disagree w/ you. It is important that you and me agree, otherwise one of us will be making a huge loss! If not, poor Radu might be crushed in b/w sing your forecasts.

Give me ONE good reason oil is going higher in the short-term. It has absorbed all the real, and speculative, happenings and STILL unable to break 74. Surely some military action in the ME would be the sole reason to go further.

It's down down...and all the way down from here. Again forum, mark my words...


P.S. My ONLY position is short...and going shorter w/ every $2 drop in price!
risky business
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 25, 2009 1:00
I would suggest to take a long and hard look at AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, as Aussie has recently been the tip of the spear for risk appetite. I think it bears a higher potential for a drop sharper than that of European currencies, should the risk unwinding begin.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 20:26


Hey Ashraf ,

Have a nice vacantion !

Best regards !
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 20:15
strong dollar and strong equities pull back in the coming weeks
anauel63
london, UK
Posts: 34
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 20:06
Ashraf, commodites shipping cost is down 26% this month; the baltic dry index is down 29.70%, what are your views on com/currencies in relation with the upcoming U.S data ?
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 20:01
Ashraf I was agreeing with you .. see my tweet "if your oil goes up cuz of low inventories that shld not be bullish for stocks yes there is demand but for wrong reasons .."
8:10 AM Aug 19th from webhttp://twitter.com/raulmarcusbruno
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 19:36
yes if u r a technical analyst!
Swede
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 16:11
Is it really meaningful to use a MA on the VIX since vol/VIX is mean reverting?
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 16:00
Spec im hoping for further GBP weakness got 1.62 strike puts in my p/folio...The current GBP strength has no fundamental basis ( a bit like the current equity rally)

re: Oil - I have been playing it intra-day for the last few weeks, and thing I have noticed is the lack of momentum or vol...The 200 day MA mentioned by Ashraf is acting like an electric fence...everytime the price breaches or heads near that level it jolts back down
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 24, 2009 15:51
gunjack nothing stopping oil reaching higher in short term.

but as i said, risk aversion may not be the key factor in moving currency markets. it will be about who is emerging from the recession and the central bank's credibility.

watch out for sterling weakness. Pound broken multi month low against euro casing it to also tank against dollar.
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