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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
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raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 23:38
Oil looks well supported above 70 ....just like that false move downwards on the Dow, oil faked to the downside and then surged up ..looks capped at 75 though. I don't think it's an anti-dollar thing Asad, just because there is a correlation does not mean causative effect.That's a great quote from J Maynard Keynes about the markets and not one to forget ..trading is definitely not quantitative physics!
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 20:31
rpats good luck. hopefully you will close without loss.
rpats
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 20:22
So guys, I spent last week in Geneva on business... but came back today and noticed cable's still holding on above that 1.61 level I mentioned earlier.... I still don't see it falling beyond that.

Spec I know you gonna start ranting against sterling after this post, but it's just my view I am sticking to and yes i do get emotional with my trades... I am still long GBPUSD from 1.65 levels.

Let's hope for the best.

Rav
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 14:46
asad, markets can stay irrationale longer than investors can stay solvent. as long as 75 is not broken there is some sort of reason to this oil market. A significantly USD-negative event has to happen for oil to breach above 75.

Ashraf
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 14:40
Ashraf,

Thanks! But then if my views are correct (& I'm no analyst) and you also agree w/ me (a BIG bonus for me), then WHY are the prices still up there?! You know this is getting irritating! They preach that markets behave rationally...and ll information is factored in...then WHY are the prices still up there?

Irritated,

Asad
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 14:36
Ashraf,

I believe the only thing keeping oil afloat (literally!) is the weakness of the dollar. So what's your take on oil? Where do you see the prices near November?

Personally, I'm holding a minimum (short) position because it is becoming a bit volatile (even if I LOVE volatility). C'mon, it has to come down now. It HAS to!
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 14:33
smiler, bill, jack, i said 7280 was still corrective so not sure how much a difference does 25 cts make especially in such a volatile instrument.
said, your forecast implies a breach above key resistance levels. what is your rationale for the September spike?
Asad, i agree with your bearish view on oil but always be careful from repositioning flozs after Labour Holiday.
The Brent-Crude spread is largely due to the implicit volatility in crude, some of it is due to hurricane nervousness and other is that it is more sensitive to Intl speculation, IMM flows and USD-related trading.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 13:41
dont long oil at these levels for an extended period of time. Dollar remains in ultra bearish mode (dollar bottom base built) which could lead to an unexpected reversal in positions as scope for more bearishness is very limited.

However, for stocks i doubt we will get a correction in september as most people are expecting it. In an efficient market this has probably already been priced in. Friday saw some profit taking thats all.

So i think september could be range bound with no sharp corrections. But the dollar index is highly possible to edge up and oil to fall
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Aug 29, 2009 0:01
i find the wti still atractive. even it still lags strong economic datas i suppose it gonna rally to the 76 78 level by the 10th of september. there are still strong correlation between american indices and oil potential buy move
smiler
Ireland
Posts: 15
15 years ago
Aug 28, 2009 10:01
Oil has hit $73, is it still a correction? Thanks, Smiler.
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