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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 16:05
anauel, i still see 905 gold before we see 980.
Asad/Spec, supply is v. important in oil prices, but demand must not be ignored. World economy would not sustain $300 prices. Yes, China is indeed hoarding much oil and alternatives are very slow at cropping up. But long term dollar weakness and eventual inflationary implications of central banks' QE once we do get a more solid recovery in BRICS could suggest for prices to reach as high as 150 in a year from now. In the short term however, oil is at risk of reaching low 50s and even mid 40s.

Ashraf
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 15:19
Spec,

I can't believe what you just wrote. :) Pretty short-sighted! My friend, cars are just ONE of the nearly 7000 industrial processes dependent on oil. How many years would it take to adapt these processes to alternate fuels? And how commercially viable will these fuels be? Will we have a handsome supply of such alternate fuels to ensure uninterrupted processing? Can anyone answer even ONE of these questions?

Anyone (ANYONE!) who says that oil can be replaced THAT easily is talking a loadful of rubbish! There's a higher chance of oil running out that us humans phasing it out. It would take at least fifty years for anything to even come close to the scale of usage that oil commands. Let's not then get carried away w/ the alternate energy euphoria.

Btw, it wasn't an ANALYST of BARCLAYS...but the CHIEF of BP CAPITAL who predicted $300. Otherwise, yeah, Barclays DO talk loads of rubbush! Agreed.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 14:10
Asad, that quote about irrational marketsis not mine but a well known quote.

Cougr, FX intervention is a sytematic practicse by Braxil and Mexico to aimed at maintaining liquidity rather than driving currency direction. And all of it is sterilized thereafter (offset by open market operations).

While predicting general market direction is key, it is as important to know what to do when markets are going one way or another.

Ashraf
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 13:28
Thanks Said , you're right but I would like to know why they are called 'conditional' dollar sales.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 13:18
eh cougr

i think it might be a way of intervention from a central bank in selling dollar denominated asset to fix its own currency. mexico has a fifty million dol daily programation since its currency fall.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 12:54
"With the reduction in exchange market volatility, the conditional dollar sales have only been triggered twice in the past three months, most recently on Wednesday of this week. "

Ashraf or anyone,sorry to be a bother ,but it would be immensely appreciated if someone could explain to me ,even briefly ,what the term 'conditional dollar sales' means from the above quote.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 2:32
barclays capital need to fire their analysts they talk a load of rubbish. oil will CERTAINLY not reach 300 as we will have new substitutes for cars which will slowly replace demand for car fuel. in ten years i cant see it more than 100ish.

telephones on the street got replaced and so will petrol cars.
anauel63
london, UK
Posts: 34
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 2:16
Hi guys, it seemed like gold want to break higher throughout the coming days, do you think it might be a sustainable move?

anauel63
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 1:26
Raulin,

But NO! The current price level is ABSOLUTELY due to the weakness in the USD (ok, a bit of hurricane euphoria as well). This will be, as is ALWAYS, proven as the USD strengthens...we'll see crude descending (barring some fundamental occurance - i always put in a caveat - like a military strike in the ME)..
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 30, 2009 1:22
Ashraf,

Loved your first comment, "markets can stay irrationale longer than investors can stay solvent". Absolutely beautiful! But again, is weakness of USD the ONLY reason for oil to maintain its current price level (I understand that when USD's weak, investors can buy more crude and hence the increased demand)?

Ok, hurricane euphoria...and give and take...we have the current price level. The interesting question is WHAT will trigger a collapse in the crude prices? A strengthening of the USD?

Btw, T. Boon Pickens, the oil guru & head of BP Capital said that oil could reach $300 in ten years' time! But hey, e/thing will be up in ten years time (incl/ our salaries).. *heheh*