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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 5, 2010 18:55
Comments: 279
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

More Euro Losses Ahead

More losses in the euro are seen ahead despite rallying oil prices.
 
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 16:02
This Forum Title needs to change to either "No More Euro Losses Ahead", or "Dollar Decimation Pending"
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 15:49
Ashraf 1.38 this quarter and maybe even 1.30? Wow, that's a tough call. Technically the chart looks like this, yes, but in my opinion the fundamentals play their role here and 2010 might become very, very ugly for the US in my opinion...
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 15:18
jamshed, if you want the overall picture. i think eurusd will test 1.38 this quarter (not sure yet about below 1.30) but a recovery back to 1.50 is not due due until Q3. Obviously, the key is knowing when to revise our forecast, like i did back in December when it broke below 1.47, at which point i called for 1.4270 (we bottomed at 1.4215). Look at the monthly charts of oil and euro in the LATEST ARTICLE on the website for those 4 exceptions.


Ashraf
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 15:09
What you must all understand is the U.S. Authorities will not permit their beloved stock market to be negative even ONE day. You notice how when discusiion of stock market, all you hear about is economic recovery. Then they turn around and stone Usd on poor NFP.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 13:01
I'm slightly surprised that the EUR/GBP hasn't done better than it has in the immediate aftermath of the NFP.

If the GBP/USD post-NFP performance is really dollar weakness and not pound strength, I'd expect to see EUR/GBP do better. It has lost today's gains (although only some of Friday's).
jamshed
Pakistan
Posts: 57
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 11:24
Hi Ashraf,

I am in a learning mode and you book has been quite helpful along with your commentary here.
my simplistic view is that dollar would appreciate when a flood of foreign money moves into the US. this i do not see happening due to structural problems in the US economy - mainly permanent job losses that have moved work over to china and india leaving middle class americans to work at walmart. unless there is a huge new industry developing out of the US in renewables or health care etc, the US economy will fail to fully recover from the housing crisis.

short term, i give most value to cftc weekly long short positions and these are short euro by 6.5 B$ / around 36000 contracts. But i think this will shrink this week after the recent jobs report.

where do u you see the euro dollar in 3 months and 12 months? i think u mentioned 1.38 for 3 months........what about 12 months?
from different sources like scotia / danske / mellon, i would think it would be around 1.50 in three months and maybe 1.40 in a year time.

all of us here appreciate your free commentory by the way........
j
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 11:11
I sure hope our friend Dako placed a stop on his eur short. I hope you all did.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 10:36
jamshed, lets agree to disagree. do you think is the US is the only nation with deficits and bad macros. FX focus shifts from cyclical to structural and to risk and back. we shall see.

USDJPY 92.20 TLine supp still solid despite yen's damage today (after $USDX). need a daily close > it Thks every1 & keep up the support those who have not voted www.shortyawards/alaidi.com

Ashraf
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 9:27
Somebody please call Dako to tell him his short euro at 1.4532 is now underwater...



Dako
Illinois, US


January 11, 2010 01:16 ET Hey Pissed Off, your just crazy and a nuisance. If you dont have anything to say that could benefit the rest of us, stay off this forum.

Again, to all the other sane people on this forum I'm short the Euro/Dollar with a stop loss very close to the current price and today's high 1.4532.

Peace and succesful trading to Ashraf and you all.

Haydar.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 9:25
The title of this forum should be "No More Euro Losses Ahead".

1.4530 and ripping higher...