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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 5, 2010 18:55
Comments: 279
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More Euro Losses Ahead

More losses in the euro are seen ahead despite rallying oil prices.
 
rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2010 6:37
Although there is no current rally in Gold, the "momey makers" have moved the Jell-O from EUR and GBP to goosing their Boy Toy du jour AUD and NZD. The goosing of these two pairs is temporarily supporting EUR and GDP.

Again, who is really willing to be short USD heading into Friday's NFP? The goosing of AUD and NZD nothing more than a game of chicken. Hopefully the last one out closes the door and turns out the lights when they leave. All this goosing of the Boy Toy(s) du jour simply for the three day roll premium later today? If not before that, AUD and NZD will lose 100 pips before Friday NFP. The only question is: from what nose bleed perch will the 100 pips be sliced from?
rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2010 2:05
The "money makers" are really working hard in mid-Asian session desperately trying to prop the ailing euro. They know it must be above a certain level heading into the European session otherwise 75 pips will be sliced off the eur in a matter of an hour or two. Hence this 35 pip rally we just saw. Kind of like the euro's version of the PPT.
pipercoly
halifax, Canada
Posts: 5
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2010 1:33
Well just watched the addendum on youtube to your terrific article here sir. Thats what gets us newby traders in trouble. My assumption is that if euro is falling , then short oil and short the mkt. When good traders like yourself see the unraveling of correlations occuring you know when to be cautious. I'm still trying to put it all together, 2-10 yr spread between countries and other assorted data. Let's go Algeria , FIFA2010 South Africa!
houram
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 55
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2010 22:37
Hi Ashraf,
Great article. What does it take for the Euro to drop even to the lows of 1.25? Isn't Europe with all its problems seeking a weaker Euro to boost their exports? Do Germany and France have to bail out their neighbors sooner or later? What is Spain going to do with their 20% unemployment?
Thanks
Houram
newman
Minnesota, United States
Posts: 6
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2010 19:50
THANKS, Ashraf. Much appreciated. Not what I was hoping to hear :^( but much appreciated.
newman
Minnesota, United States
Posts: 6
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2010 19:49
Ashraf: Looking at charts, gold has SO FAR followed the euro pretty closely, not oil. Do you think this correlation will continue or not?

THANKS AGAIN, Newman.

(Have your book and bookmarked your on-line workbook, but haven't had the time yet to study them. So when it comes to the "Wisdom of Ashraf" I am still, unfortunately, flying blind.)
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2010 19:47
newman, i see it retesting 1070.

ping, yes yen will make sone shortlived rebounds before allowing USD to regain risk aversion lustre. i see JPY strength for later in the year (after Q2).


Ashraf
ping
Missouri, United States
Posts: 2
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2010 19:33
Ashraf,

Why do you see JPY stop at 90.20? If US 2-year yield continues to drop, Nikkei and emerging market start to nose dive, risk trades begin to unwind, shouldn't all these favor a strong Yen to the area of 88.50, for example? Yes, I know the debt ratio, possible rating downgrade, disfunctional government, etc. but still. What do you think? Thanks.
newman
Minnesota, United States
Posts: 6
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2010 19:27
Ashraf: Thanks for the insights. VERY interesting. My big question: what do you think gold will do? Do you think it will go down with the euro or go up with oil? Thanks for any insights into this.

All the best,

Newman
Minneapolis, MN, U.S.