More Euro Losses Ahead

Ashraf,

I'd like to thank you for all your hard work and expertise regarding FX. IMHO, you are one of the, if not the top FX analyst around.

As a present to myself, I purchased and am waiting delivery on a book entitled "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis". Can't wait to receive it. The reviews on Amazon were spectacular.

Thanks again!

Said,

I cannot believe my good fortune. Closed out all eur, gbp and aud shorts when Mr. Stark stated no saving of Greece. Kept my long usd.jpy open. Closed that today at 92.6.

I live on west coast U.S., so it is 10:30 pm - 5:30 am for me when the daily goosing occur in European session until U.S.

Been flat with limit orders to short eur, gbp and aud at higher prices as at today's 5:00 pm new york time is the cut for the roll on premium on the carry trades. Today those long those pairs receive three days premium. So the Big Fella's will keep these three pairs well bid.

Then to better fortune, the FED minutes were released, allowing for an explosion in eur, taking gbp and aud along for the ride and pounding down usd/jpy. Started shorting eur, gdp and aud a little earlier than anticipated, and long again in usd.jpy because of the mindless explosion.

Want to point out something to you. When Stark's comments came out, the Big Fella Money Maker's Boy Toy eur.gbp was at 89.85 and eur around 1.4355. In one minute, eur.gbp dropped to 89.45 and eur to the lows of the day at 1.4282. After a quick reaction-jerk down in sympathy, gbp went right back to 1.5995, where it has pretty much stayed all day. Yet eur.usd has recovered all the way back to over 1.44. How?

The Big Fella Money Maker's rammed into eur/gbp, their boy toy, too desperately save eur.usd. They were caught long (wrong) again. So the eur.usd rallied 100 plus pips, while the gbp.usd remained stagnant, while gold and aud exploded higher, all in the wake of "bad news" for the eur.usd.

Again I will state who'se really going to be short usd heading into Friday's NFP, especially with the rally in all the majors vs usd so far this week. I don't know how NFP will read, or what the reaction will be. Ashraf says eur.usd 1.42 by early next week. For this to occur, the NFP must be USD favorable in a big way. But what I do know is some to most of the gains this week against usd will be undone from here to Friday's NFP.

Long usd.jpy and short eur.usd.

Hi Ashraf,

Where do you see the recent Eur/Usd rise being capped to, and are you still bearish- Also was this due to the weakness in the dollar

Kind Regards

Said,

Please explain. "Thin air" could be either way...


Asad

Ashraf,

With the Euro's continuing weakness, do you STILL see oil at 89 (or even going above 82)? & how would one explain this? Thanks!


Asad