Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
go britain
osborne putting france in a grave trying to initiate a strong axes between London and Berlin.
Really the reminescence of pre world war 2 are still in the finance sphere when the brits created hitler party with funding.
the next target is 1.08representing a daily downward trendline from the 27/05 to 22/07.
if this level is reached before the friday nfp and regarding to what show the ADP numbers we can have a in line expectation or more than expected nfp numbers.
i dont know if from the 16/03 we have a 5 impulsives waves up or if it is a 3-3-5.
in case we have the five impulsives waves up we can see more infow of capital coming from the bond market to equities and the differential of interest rate between eu and us and gb and us will come create a influx in euro denominated asset; with a rate hike in december.
in case we have a 3-3-5 then only the 1.05 will be tested by december for a january february 0.91 level a nd rat ehike in march.
email............(docperch@gmail.com) and (william.mcmitch@yandex.com)
if market tempts to breal the 1.10 level and bounced to 1.0975 then we still can see the potential to 1.1116 by thrursday
as said friday wdnesday will be adp numbers giving us ahint in us non farm payroll.
difficult to judge this market with some scenario at some bank like goldman sachs establishing a QE4 scenario in few years time lets say in 2017
a .91 is my prefered level but we can see this euro still concerned in a long years consolidation to 1.45
good trading good luck
one can argue where is the place of the shadow banking in china and how central gvt control is incurring in sight for a free floating of the yuan in 2022?
a .4 percent of growth passing via the shadow banking could be the resultant of distribution of decades long multilateral agreement between nations supplying tech transfert and plant opening and the combination of discounted oil prices to chinese manufacturers via the state owned enterprises.
.4% could result in letting the country passing hundred of billions of dollars of capital from the chinese vault to the resultant of the five chinese policies edicted by the cpc.
the five year plan is more focused on the creation of internal market vith a shift from export manufacturing to more growth oriented product with more technologes value.
how to simplify the equation between what the transpacific partnership is bringing and how regional bloc are gonna compete on oil for instance or attracting the bulk of chinese overseas investment.
Are the Argentiers trying to forecast the sluggishness of the yield of manufacturing investment in the 2020's with the next phase of steel relocation coming with the delocalisation of the uk manufacturing steel industry. it is probable that environmental concern in growth countries such as developped countries will increase the burden the procedure burden and the tax impact on thecost of the steel so we can see more steel industries investing in already steel producing countries such as india japan korea china dubai.
so this .4 growth when fed rate hike will come predominant in the course of the economy will have to find a support for creating value for the already wealthy in china and close the gap in social classes in a country abandoning its one child policy.
quite dire for the economy the real one